The more I look at the action this week on the GDX across the BBands, the more I think that was the market “Tell”.  I had remarked earlier this week that I’d never seen such a move before and I think we are going to learn just how significant that was.  With a powerful move to the top of the BBand, there should have been at least a pause coming down at the midpoint, from a statistical standpoint…and more commonly a decent bounce.  This time the bounce didn’t come until after prices dipped below what should have been a really solid bounce from a huge bull flag where huge volumes were traded.  I cant find any other example of this type of move.  Typically, that base should have been a springboard for at least a lame bounce.  Now we find today’s close at resistance posed by both the top of the base and the Bband midpoint.  This tells (or suggests to) me no new investment came in when priced dropped to the base this time, and in fact the price movement backtesting across the base is only being used so traders can get out even and bail, and every bit of market rise that backfilled the thin green gappy zone was dominated by short covering as opposed to new investment.

If prices do somehow close back above the base and Bband midpoint, then my analysis is totally wrong and traders are actually putting new money to work and prices should continue to rise, even if just bearishly.

http://schrts.co/6xNCme