GDXJGR 2 Hour

MACD is showing bearish divergence with price, albeit mildly:

GDXJGR 2H1

If, and it’s a big if, GDXJGR were to turn down from here it could form a head and shoulders pattern:

GDXJGR 2H2

What’s interesting to me is the H&S target of approximately 0.26 is equal to the first Fib retracement level on GDXJGR’s daily chart:

GDXJGR D

SpockM

Is anybody else experiencing difficulties accessing SpockM website today??

I don’t want to bother Fully, he may have his hands full at this moment.

But I did see that “SOMETHINGS UP” at SpockM on Twitter https://spockm.com/2016/05/06/somethings-up/

COTs reports after the Close

One thing for sure…they are going to be Scary…Again !

But so far all they have done is kept good traders on the sidelines.

One day they will matter….but may be a while yet

KGI.to (Kirkland Lake Gold) is a beast.

KGI May 6:16

Hey, Fully

I hope you recognize that these PM stocks are doing well today. 🙂

Experience of Buying on the Way Down

As a long term investor in the gold sector I thought I’d share my personal experience thus far of what it’s like to buy and hold on the way down. I’ll share my purchases on just one of my positions: Yamana Gold. No, I’m not a high roller like some of you guys. But I’m doing this mainly with cash I can afford to lose.
AUY
This is a stock I first bought in January of 2014 at $9.00 a share. At the time, I thought it was a decent price because it was down from about $20.00 a share in 2012. As you know, Yamana went on to trade below $1.40 a share in January 2016. Brutal to say the least. But from the first purchase at $9.00, I was buying the whole way down, and reinvesting the dividends, so that in the end I am averaged in at $3.23 per share and currently up 39.99% and $768.40 on the position. This whole time I haven’t sold a single share of any gold stocks. I am holding out for a big pay day a few years down the road.

Gentleman’s Entry : Hopes Dashed

Here are my thoughts on the great hoped for correction in the HUI. Rambus drew out a great playbook observation card last night from a technical perspective, and here is what I see from a market history and psychological perspective. We all know we have a slew of gold bull wannabes that want into this bull trend in the worst way, but at yesterdays prices. They have lusted for a bull market in the PM stocks and have chased false bottoms all the way down in the bear market. So here we are now in an established uptrend and they find themselves on the sidelines or grossly underinvested. Thanks to the great advice of their preferred gold bug Gurus!

So the ulcers have been building on the sidelines watching the train leave the station. They need a “correction” or secondary reaction in the worst of ways. But here is the thing, a secondary reaction comes after everyone has gotten aboard the boat and are leaning over on the bullish side. It comes not when it is wanted or expected. It comes when the consensus is that prices must now advance higher. Clearly it is wanted now more than I have ever seen before, so I suspect that what we have seen is simply normal market breathing action. We might have even attracted some short positioning which may turn into a religious experience in short order to those positioned if we can run-up to a new high in the HUI. The bull has no desire accommodating these sidelined sympathizers, in fact he relishes seeing them looking from the outside in with hollow eyes.

p1p2p3

I suspect the mini pull back is over

Ashes to Ashes

DUST to

DUST

BioTech Short BIS

My BIS BioTech short is looking sweet here. 😉

I got in at 37 and will take profits when it breaks my small green trend line or perhaps my Blue Fork.

BIS

Energy – Offshore Drilling Contractors

Again, I really like the energy space here and I think many of the deep offshore drillers got overly punished (massive capitulation) late last year and into early 2016 which is simply opportunity in my eyes. The charts are really shaping up now. ATW is great example:

ATW

GOLD 1hr GAP

USDJPY backtesting 106.80, USD backtesting 93.70. I expect they’ll pick up downward speed in the next day or 2 while gold backs and fills. Weight of evidence shows USDJPY about to go on a plunge to below 103 very soon. Unless something changes, thats the way its headed. If the facts change, I’ll change my mind.

gap5-6

RE: UVXY

Remember “pop and drop” and how UVXY likes to make flags on the way up…I am traveling; thus unable to closely monitor. Good luck!

Richmond Mines Results

Richmont Mines’ Exploration Drilling Continues to Intersect Significant Gold Mineralization at Island Gold Both Laterally and at Depth and Intersects 9.71 g/t Over 8.00 Metres at the Kremzar Mine Regional Target

http://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1047-tsx/ric/19393-richmont-mines-exploration-drilling-continues-to-intersect-significant-gold-mineralization-at-island-gold-both-laterally-and-at-depth-and-intersects-9-71-g-t-over-8-00-metres-at-the-kremzar-mine-regional-target.html

USD Wolfewaves – multiple one

Usd has wolfewaves within wolfewave.

USD Daily Wolfewave

40 Year Monthly Dollar Log Line Chart

dollar40

when THE DOLLAR BROKE THIS LONG TERM DOWN TREND I FIGUERED HERE WE GO….DEFLATION MAXIMUS

But now its below the line again and may be back testing…Lots of Month left though

A chart of this duration is best displayed in LOG form (% moves rather than Numerical)

$USD…

I have no idea which direction the $USD will take; however, this appears CRITICAL support…
FGC, has this multi-year chart already been addressed?
usd

GOLD 1hr squeal

I thought I could hear the chart squealing today around the time of the gap fill but then realized it was me. Was looking for $1267 gold yesterday. We got $1268.10 today according to Kitco ($1268.86 for Netdania). I’d like to think that was it except maybe a stop run for tomorrows morning games.

gold1hr

PM Stocks

Whether you are Bullish or Bearish…I am sure you recognize what a surprisingly Strong day this is for Miners

HUI: Mental Preparation

https://rambus1.com/2016/05/05/hui-update-267/

Anyone following this Australian gold explorer?

http://cardinalresources.com.au

 

http://cardinalresources.com.au/uploads/documents/2016/Cardinal_Presentation.pdf

The chart of daily prices over 6 months for security CDV

 

Some strong moves by individual PM stocks

Detour Gold (dgc.to) and Kirkland Lake (kgi.to) making new highs for this new bull market. One hour chart has a fresh SAR buy signal.

False Expectations of Entering This Bull at 200MA

See my two charts below. Impulsive moves don’t let new trades in easily…………

HUI1

HUI2

Long Post – Goldbugs Gots The Fever Again?

I think the GLD, GDXJ & GDXJGR (GDXJ-GLD ratio), daily charts tell a story of gold fever in the junior miners during April:

GLD D  GDXJ D GDXJGR D

Gold didn’t rise much but GDXJ rocketed anyway, as confirmed by GDXJGR.

IMO, the dollar looks ripe for a correction from oversold territory and I have 2 possible necklines I’m looking for it to test:

UUP D1UUP D2  UUP D3

Similarly, FXE is looking to correct from overbought territory and I have a further 3 (posting 2 here), possible IH&S patterns,

which, I think, confirm the validity of the H&S patterns for UUP:

FXE D1  FXE D2  FXE D3

What’s interesting to me are UUP’s weekly charts and $USD’s monthly chart. As of now I’m favoring the 1st H&S pattern

posted above for UUP. If you cross reference that target with UUP’s weekly chart, it comes in at approximately the SMA 200,

which to me adds validity to the target:

UUP W1

The H&S target is also in the ballpark of the 38.2% retracement of the entire rally:

UUP W2

Jumping back to the “what is the correct neckline for the H&S pattern for UUP question”, the weekly line chart

seems to be saying it’s approximately 26:

UUP W3

Continuing with the “dollar is going to rally then fall again” theme, $USD’s monthly says to me it has further to fall:

$USD M

Coming full circle, I think GDXJ is going to test it’s first Fib tracement level, which if it were to happen would

be an entirely normal correction.

GDXJ D2

GDXJGR needs to correct too. If GLD were to fall to approximatey 119.50 and GDXJ 30.55, GDXJGR would also

fall back to its first Fib R level:

GDXJGR D2

I think if the Employment Situation numbers come in ok tomorrow, or strong, that will be enough for the dollar to

have its little rally before correcting again.

‘The Fever’:

The Fever

For EagleSeagle – SVXY Possible IH&S Necklines

As of now I’m out of equity vol for the next few weeks because I think there will be better returns to be made elsewhere.

I have another 2 possible necklines for the possible IH&S pattern, time will tell:

SVXY D1  SVXY D2SVXY D3

 

Who’s Afraid of the Big Bad Buck ?

BUCK

What IF…The Jobs Report Tomorrow Sucks ?

GDX Daily…

gdx
note the TRIX ANGLE of ascent…
DUST CHART “JUST IN CASE”…
dust

Gold : Silver Ratio

The illusion of randomness gradually disappears as the skill in chart reading improves.”
~ John Murphy

goldsilver

UVXY & GDX

UVXY daily and 120 min versions….  GDX 30 min  w\  TSI

UVXYuvxy 120GDX 30

SPX/UVXY/GDX

SPX with a positive divergence–closed shorts this afternoon; will reassess in the AM…
Watching backtests of moving averages…While I have to admit I am intermediate bearish, when I visualize a formation of a positive divergence I take heed!
SPX
JENKINSLANE SVXY IHS Still in play…We both like to dabble in SVXY/UVXY; I find his work very interesting and reliable…
SVXY
UVXY 60 finds resistance yet again with the “layer” trend line; closed one penny above the 13 EMA.
Sandwiched between the overhead resistance and 13 EMA–tough call here…
uvxy
GDX gets PLENTY of coverage here…gap fill with a positive divergence–I wait for direction…
Need some more indicator confirmation!
gdx

AAU Bullish Wedges

I see yet another Bullish declining Wedge forming on Almanden AAU on low volume. Classic Edwards and Magee “Declining Wedge” pattern. My read on the gaps up is that they are “Breakaway” Gaps.

AAU Wedges