Florian Grummes- Midas Touch take on Gold

0526_Midas

Although Florian is usually bullish… the key to looking at his charts is to watch the ALTERNATE count – usually the thick gray line!!! BEWARE the THICK gray line…

His newsletter is free… I love free…

http://goldnewsletter.us2.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=782363159fbc9257a5256cdde&id=4f2ad6bfd9

Just one of many sources I read… to bounce against what I am thinking…

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DUST

Yes, I think DUST will backfill some gaps but once it takes out $15 resistance level, I’m looking for a run to $20.

DUST

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HUI Monthly

Took a quick glance at this chart tonight.  Gut reaction is that there isn’t much holding it up.  A quick 50 point plunge wouldn’t shock me at all over the next couple of months.

HUI

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WTI update

WTI 5min May 26

WTI 5 min with compensated indicators (x12)

WTI 5min May 26-2

Every day I draw a new trend line and I use a different color.  It’s starting to look like a piece of candy.

However, I think crude has made another of its multiday lows and subsequent buy signals as shown by the breakout from the blueberry channel when it recently met the lower cherry flavoured resistance, which was also, incidently the pivot point for the last multiday low (Tues, 19th).

Note a slight positive divergence for the Trix on the first chart between the recent low and the last one; the recent low is a lower price but a higher Trix value.  There is a similar divergence for the MACD comparing those two lows.

Also, note that the angle of the potential crossover for the MACD, and the one already present on the TSI; it looks stronger and more like a real bottom crossover and not one of those choppy ones from Friday or Monday.  I think angle is meaningful but I’m not sure how meaningful.

Here’s the daily chart below with a distinctly bearish outlook:

WTI Daily May 26

The weekly is more upbeat although it looks like the MACD is about to roll over.

WTI Weekly May 26

The monthly looks like something big is just around the corner, which would be, according to a monthly chart,  months away.

WTI Monthly May 26

Right side of the chart has a slightly bullish view on crude due to a weakening of the US dollar but not enough to make any trading plans.  May take on crude is that since the bull trend started on March 18th  there have been 9 peaks and valleys which made good short term trades if you could catch them when they formed.  I think today’s low is the beginning of the 10th.

WTI 60min peaks

I have never been able to successfully trade any of them, just stay long through the whole top to bottom to top again and again, but with this #10 I think I’ve got it figured out.

As you can see from the some of the false signals on the MACD, it takes a combination of things, trend lines are especially helpful, to catch these fluctuations close enough to the bottoms and tops to make a reasonable profit.  I guess it’s the same with any commodity or stock, really.  Crude, however, seems to have been getting simpler as weeks progress, even if it’s no longer as bullish as before and stuck in consolidation.

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DUST 60 New MACD Indicator…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DUST&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=15&id=p97866253883&listNum=1&a=388664339

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Thoughts on JDST

EWO suggesting at least one more high after this pullback…
Pullback to close gap would be 38% Fib about right for a Wave 4…..
Then Up to close just short of trendline in a failed 4th PushUp attempt…. If it
goes higher than blue trend line this bear has legs!!!

EWO will point the way!!!! Would not trade long until EWO on NUGT (as an example) shows a lower price with a higher peak)

0526_JDST2HR_Update

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Phantoms to upside starting to show up

0526_Phantoms20526_Phantoms

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Ouch, lower lows coming in metals. Miners Lead

Ouch

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HUI Is the neckline going to hold???????

HUI 5:26:15

Support at 160, then 100.

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HUI Neckline

I created a new ID and it seems I can finally post the normal way!  Just curious if anyone has views on whether this neckline is likely to hold. The downside implications of a break are obvious.

HUI

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NEM, 1st Red Bar…

nemDivergences are playing out…

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Gold EW…

Trektrader, your thoughts please…

gold ew

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JDST Wolf Wave Satisfied

100% Measured Move met. Would expect 7.71 high to be retested (maybe 61.8% retrace) then back down for a correction.  EWO on NUGT is saying there is at least one more low to come (Read GDX Post)…. Would sell JDST on RSI(5) trigger line cross, wait and buy back… WW suggests 6.50 area (if WW holds true)….

0526_JDST2HR

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New Low on GDX EWO

This means at least one more lower low coming!!!

0526_GDX2HR

Will be looking for a lower price with higher peak in EWO (Elliot Wave Oscillator)

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From Rick

The 21.48 peak labeled in the chart should be considered the Matterhorn for bulls. They’ve been slogging higher in fits and starts for the last two months, but without exceeding a single external peak on the daily chart. That’s why 21.48 is so important. If the next rally cycle pushes past it, also exceeding May 14’s ‘internal’ peak at 21.25, that would adrenalize the daily chart by creating a new, bullish impulse leg. An alternative possibility is that GDX is not quite ready for the push and will need to pull back first to 19.16, a Hidden Pivot midpoint (A=21.48 on 2/27) , for a running start. For now, we’ll watch and wait.0526_Ricks

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Gold…

GOLD
This is the only potentially bullish gold chart in my archives…
If 1150 does not hold, next is 1050

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Stock Charts Down !

Sounds like the name of a Movie

I cant live without Stockcharts…help

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The Devil and the SPX !

This from a poster at Trader Dan’s

Interesting:
March 9, 2009 Bottom S&P500 @ 666
March 9, 2009 to Sep 15, 2015 is 6 years, 6 months, 6 days coinciding closely with the Shemitah of Sep 13, 2015

Sir Norvast do you find this interesting ?

Someone please check the math .

………………….

I am sitting here in awe of all this

Maybe we get the RESET this weekend !

Under Forum Chat

3 Responses to “The Devil and the SPX”

norvast says:

May 23, 2015 at 9:20 pm

Numbers are always interesting!

The maths is correct!

You have my turn dates for the DOW…

11 Sep LOW
28 Sep LOW (significant LOW)

Why the “reset” this weekend?

Reply

Fullgoldcrown says:

May 23, 2015 at 9:47 pm

Because Stockcharts is Down

Reply

Schism says:

May 23, 2015 at 9:22 pm

Weird chit, earlier I was drawing lines on gld for possible bottoms and the first line I drew hit 66.60 coming off the 2008 IHS NL. my first thought was s&p and what kind of beastly coincidence that would be.

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Charts lining up

Weekly sentiment and Armstrong’s ECM lining up:

0523_ECM

EW count, EWO, Wolf Wave lining up on GDX 2HR chart — one more move up then down. From an EW perspective I would be looking for an abc corrective off the next low. Wolf Wave supports this. Key chart indicators bottoming with divergence. Just need RSI(5) trigger line cross with SlowSTO supporting. Note from previous post that GDX Weekly generated a SELL signal. Trend is now DOWN for GDX.

0523_GDX_2HR

Dollar chart re-posted. This is a Very Bullish Chart….

0523_UUP

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THE Most Bearish Gold Chart on the Planet

gold-log-scale-downtrend-channel

From Rambus

Don’t Shoot the Messenger

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Silver Perspective

Rambus has put out a few charts showing that SIL and the gold indexes are at a critical juncture with its present testing of the lower trend line. I would agree, its right at the critical point. Virtually all the analysis I read around here is trend line and pattern based mostly off of the price action only. I have tried to draw in market internals attempting to discern additional clues. Let’s take a look at silver. Its not over until its over and may resume its advance soon after completing this pullback phase. Here is some of the reasoning for this. First is the 2 hour which has put in a nice back test to its triangle. Beyond the easy to see price action what I like here is the volume characteristics. Note the strong volume on the two advances that is about 3X times the declining volume. That’s very positive action, then it proceeded to dry up on the pull back. This is pretty classic knights. Next notice the stochastic basing out on this pullback.

sc-1280

Now lets look at Plunger’s 30 Week EMA “tool”. This has come to be my most important chart as it enables one to filter out the non-players immediately. This is not a full blown bullish chart as we want the price to be over the 30 EMA and the EMA should ALWAYS be flat to rising. So we have the flat part, but the price does rest underneath, so it is on thin ice partially broken through. The OBV, however allows us to possibly make an exception if next week the price can quickly get back over the 30 EMA…I also like the volume as one can see it was cut in half on the pullback.

sc-1287

An initial rally in the gold sector should have silver leading gold at first. That is what we have had and the pullback over the past week was just that, a retracement (so far). Note the 30 EMA still configured upward and price is above

sc-1291

 

Now onto some of my favorites. First THE favorite is MAG Silver. Note the weekly and daily chart and its characteristics. Remember our rules… price over the 30 EMA and the EMA is flat to trending up. Also note the volume characteristics of at least double the volume going up & half the volume going down. The weekly has nice stochastics and decent OBV. Also 30 EMA is trending up with price over.

sc-1281 sc-1282

And some of the other runner ups

sc-1283 sc-1284 sc-1285 sc-1286

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Weekly Sell Signal on GDX

0522_GDXWeekly

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Yikes!!

0522_GoldCOT

0522_SilverCOT

Needed to add some color to the post :-)

0522_KitcoGoldSurvey

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Weekly Charts -This Weeks Close

Yikes, we are getting some critical closes UNDER the 10 day EMA on the weekly.

HUI, GDM, SLW, should set up a multi week waterfall. I will be shorting June 5th week at the close.

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HUI

Watching support at 170 and 160.

HUI 5:22:15

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GDX 2HR Chart Update

Not quite trusting this uptrend in GDX.  Gap down almost guarantees a 3-PushDown pattern. Pts 1, 2, 3 complete with Pt 4 forming for a nice Wolf Wave… EWO suggesting one more down (need price divergence). Trend on Daily chart is dying a slow and painful death!!! Note however, that we could bounce off the trend line into an abc corrective before total death… This is what I expect to happen (at least the abc corrective up)!!!!

(Note, numbers on chart are EW counts NOT WW counts…. not the same thing)

0522_GDX_Update

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Morning Dollar Update

(ii) complete… onwards and upwards….

0522_DollarUpdate

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Use of MACD on XIV & SVXY Vol Trade

Good Evening all !

I wanted to share a tool I have been using with success and hopefully provide a bit of wisdom I’ve learned over the past two years trading. First, in real life I’m not an investment banker, not a withered trader with decades of training, I’m a Field Artillery Officer. My job is to provide safe and accurate artillery support to Soldiers and Marines. Now, the only reason I bring up my background is to give a small bit of insight into my thought process and how I trade. I’ve fired thousands upon thousands of artillery rounds, and can tell you within a certain probability where each and every projectile will land, baring some sort of catastrophic failure. Based on my background I realized I would never fire an artillery round based on data which was purely “Subjective”. I want “Evidence Based Technical Analysis” not “Subjective” analysis. This bled into the trading style I’ve been using. I don’t want to spend my time figuring out what pattern I’m looking at in the charts, I want the chart to give me a signal and I respond. If the signal is correct, more times than not, and I allocate my resources, my money, correctly I’ll come out ahead. Give me an edge and I’ll make nice money. It is all about stacking probabilities in your favor and repeating the process again, and again to come out ahead. It is rather boring, but I’m here to make money, to add to my bank account, nothing more.

Okay, next I want to talk just a minute about volatility. You hear discussions about the “VIX” which is just a formula calculated on options for the S&P 500. I was always confused what the VIX was and how to trade it. The answer is simple. You are not trading the VIX. Ignore the VIX, pretend it doesn’t exist. I removed it from all my bookmarked charts. The only value in the VIX I have thus far found is that when the VIX is under $12, I stat thinking of shorting the S&P 500 and close my longs, and when it is over $22, I start to watch my shorts closely and get ready to go long. What you are really trading with volatility is the E-mini S&P 500 Futures. XIV and SVXY are the “Bull” stocks for the futures market. If the futures market is going up, they go up. VXX is the “Bear” or short for the futures market (and TVIX / UVXY x 2 leveraged versions) so if the S&P futures are going down, these go up. I hope I explained it well enough.

Now, why I like this form of trading ? I want a method that is signal based, short time-frame, higher probability. One of the things I’d recommend is finding a trading style which works for your personality. This method is about scalping a % or two at a time. Over a month it adds up. If you are looking for a “grand slam” each outing this isn’t for you.

Okay, if you are still with me, below is a 1 month, 2 HR chart of XIV, the “Bull” for the S&P Futures. The “Green” arrows show “Buy” points, the “Red, “Sell”. Presently the “Bull” stocks are much easier to trade in this market, and I weigh my buys in recognition of this. When / If the bear appears, I would do the opposite. Honestly, you would be fine just avoiding the “Bear” versions and just use the “Bulls”, much more forgiving in this market, but it is all based on your risk tolerance. You can knock out big gains with the “bears” but if you are wrong they are far less forgiving.

What I’m doing —-> Watch the MACD. Oh, another note, I changed the MACD from the standard. Normally it is (12,26,9), mine is (5,35,5). Play with this. I like this one, gives a bit of an “edge” I think. When the MACD is below the median line, or 0.0, start looking for a “Buy”. Your buy signal is when the bars stop moving down and begin to move up. Momentum is swinging and you get a signal. When the bars stop moving up and head down, you “sell”. Best case is when the MACD is below 2.0 to buy. I might get more in-depth later. I have a 1 HR, a 2 HR, daily, and a 5 minute chart going. The 5 minute is used after I have confirmed a “buy” with the hour charts.

XIV Trade

Also, Candles. It is a whole another post. I really have come to respect long tails on candles. Watch for these on a down move. The bulls are buying into the selling and taking over. I don’t trade 100% off of them, but they are a tool to watch. Doji’s / shooting stars too, watch for them on tops. I’m slowly adding them to my tool basket.

Take a look at the chart, let me know what questions you have. I used this for DUST last week and it turned out nicely, made about 7%. The issue though, is I expect more failures trading NUGT / DUST, their volatility is much greater and an overnight gap up or down in gold can wreck you. I’m presently backtesting NUGT / DUST to see how they work with this. Will post my results. SO far two trades, one NUGT one DUST both good, but that is far too small a sample size. Will keep looking at charts and see how viable in the future, but should work.

Okay, good trading all !

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HUI Fractal?

hui

 

If the case, a massive gap down comes tomorrow morning.

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Phantoms to the Downside Piling Up

0521_Phantoms

…. but not huge to the downside

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