Goldtent TA Paradise
In 2001 PM sector turn bullish after 20years of bear market.
How did CDNX behaved then compared to today after 4 years of bear trend???
Answer is in the “corrections”.
Between 2002 and 2007 top CDNX had two major corrections 28% before topping in 2007.
Since Jan 2016 CDNX has not corrected as near as the past correction. This current correction may be the first one and about to end soon????
There were four rises during that time ranging from 45% TO 88%.
All Market Sectors are Down EXCEPT the Semiconductors
New High for the Move
SOX and HUI are trading generally together
Well, I’ve added another line of potential support for GDXJ because of yesterday’s price reversal.
Some will say yesterday’s reversal was simply a back-test of the breakdown that occurred on Tues, and that’s certainly valid analysis, but then that can also be applied to the $HUI as well…
And inspired by Graddhy’s ABX chart, I went back and took another look at GDXJ and have come to believe that perhaps $38 is not necessarily an inevitability after all, as GDXJ also appears to be consolidating just above it’s own massive (green) neckline…
As you may have noticed, I like ratio charts as one of many very good tools for trying to figuring out relative strength, trend and/or direction, especially at inflection points.
The ratio charts below makes it pretty clear that the majors (HUI) are going to underperform the small caps (GDXJ) and especially the micro caps (CDNX), going forward. And all charts have a thin zone coming up so my guess is that small caps and especially micro caps will fly.
One other possibility with the ratio charts is of course that CDNX and GDXJ could also be falling less than HUI in the near term but that alternative I find highly unlikely at this very point.
I do not think we would have charts that show small and micro caps being strongest if PM was about to take a dive right now. The CDNX is brutally strong at this point looking at its separate chart if one compares it to the majors (not shown here).
The fact that the CDNX is this strong now is just another sign of coming broad commodity inflation as I see it since it contains companies that deals in many different commodities.
So, in sum, I think the place to be right now going forward is the small and micro cap. And most of the majors are not looking as bad as e.g. HUI and GDX can have one believe if one looks at the individual companies as I see it.
Also, I do really believe that GOLD will not go lower for the rest of this bull market than it did on the 16th of Sept at circa 1310. That was the apex hit that I had been looking for and posting about:
After its not that well timed financing announcement I think it is bottoming out here now. At least the r/r is real nice right here.
My last post on uranium miners:
Hit resistance at 50 percent fib and diagonal trend line…
TRIX with plenty of upside potential…
13/34 bull cross…
Futures presently at 26.70 at the 61% fib…
So, this could be a small drop and pop this am…
The bulls want to see the stoch 144 breach 50
0957 so far so good with drop and pop
Well, we know the rest of the story…
You all know how I feel about Armstrong’s TA….
BUT…this is some FA which “sounds” interesting
I know I know its Not TA but once in a while ….you know….we gotta look at some real world trends too
Anybody think this is valid analysis?
The GDXJ chart has some beauty Chartology going on here
Yesterday closed at support . Today breaks support then reverses and closes above.= BULLISH
Fickle Fully at your service
Yesterday I was Bearish…Today I am Bullish.
I think we test the top line again. IF that can be bested…Full Bull Fully here
Is Silver about to embark on a impulsive rally that will likely take it beyond it’s July high of $21.23?
Gabe – the following wave count is offered for your consideration, along with other EWP practitioners. I appreciate your charts and highly respect your work. I’ve seen other similar wave counts as yours posted here, and expect you can correct me if I am way off.
My count differs from yours, wherein you propose that primary wave 1 (P1) has been completed, and now Silver is presently in the process of searching for a bottom to complete primary wave 2 (P2).
I’m contending that P1 has yet to be completed, and instead Silver is presently completing a 4th sub-wave within a larger scale 5-wave pattern, and is therefore about to breakout higher on it’s way to eventually completing P1.
For neophytes reading in, it’s important to understand that EWP provides “rules” for wave counting which cannot be broken, and “guidelines” that offer tendencies with exceptions. The rules for a wave 2 and wave 4 correction are quite different, and therefore will have important impact on future price projections.
For example, wave 2’s typically retrace 50-61.8% of wave 1, but can retrace all of wave 1 (guidelines), as long as it doesn’t move beyond the start of wave 1 (rule). In the case of Silver, that would potentially mean all the way down to $13.62!
Wave 4’s typically retrace 38.2-50% of preceding wave 3 (guideline) but cannot move beyond the end of wave 1 (rule).
Therefore, it’s important to know if you are in a wave 2 or wave 4, as the potential downside is much greater for wave 2, and more restrictive for wave 4.
With all of that said, here is my case for the following wave count. Gabe – your wave count is provided in red numerals for comparison purposes.