Looks like the train is about to pull away for PM, not just for USA.TO.
Goldtent TA Paradise
Looks like the train is about to pull away for PM, not just for USA.TO.
Dollar stronger across the board
But HUI et all look good so far
Surf agrees too…
It seems GATA has taken exception to my recent article:
My response is being published today, and in the inside thread to this post:
In the thin zone now. 25% to 30% upside from here in $CDNX. Expect some individual rocks to outperform the index.
Shorting thin zones is risky. $CDNX now outperforming GDX and GDXJ. The big bucks will be made in this sandpit over the next couple of months, as speculative capital seeks out overlooked and undervalued small cap PM stocks.
Compare the $CDNX price action over the last 6 months, with silver fox’s gold chart below. What is immediately obvious is $CDNX is little affected by the gold price corrections. It just wants to go one way … up. There is no evidence in $CDNX of a major correction or consolidation until we approach 1000 on the index.
Anfield Gold Corp. ANF.V OTCMKT: ANCKF
Early SpockM subs bought this in Feb/Mar around $CAD 0.75 average recommended entry price, at the 30 week EMA.
Medium term target around $CAD 3.80. Longer term target near the all time highs.
The train is leaving the station (again). Got your tickets?
Be right. Sit tight. JL. 🙂
If you look at the Yen it pretty much tells the whole story for both the US Stock Markets and Gold.
The Yen’s direction is driven by Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda
Kuroda meets with Ben Bernanke. Ben persuades Kuroda to do helicopter money.
More Yen printing (helicopter money) = weaker Yen
Weaker Yen means US Stock Markets go up RISK ON
GOLD goes down
(the Yen and Gold are totally correlated as in weak Yen = weak Gold and vice versa)
That was YESTERDAY
The stock market rose
Gold went down (remember the fear of a correction yesterday)
This is what happened TODAY.
Kuroda changes his mind and decides NOT to do helicopter money!
Stock market falls RISK OFF
This is why the YEN and it’s strength are important for GOLD
(By the way the reason Ben Bernanke wanted him to do helicopter money now. is to make the stock market go up into the election in the US.The FED’s hands are tied so they have to use Kuroda.
The FED policies are partly political as the FED governor is appointed by the President and she does not want to lose her job if another party gets elected.
For day traders or short term traders
HUI broke down from a pattern and back tested today
HUI also has broken out of a larger pattern UP and back tested yesterday.
Now it is trapped between the 2 patterns
Rambus has show we often get a ping pong move in this situation
which pattern will win out Bull or Bear?
I drew this long term fork (green) color…looks like price broke below the median line and back testing the breakdown?
Fork experts, start commenting
I updated this post because it contained errors!
I also put notations on the chart showing the WAVE points as it can get confusing.
Here is a projected Elliott Wave count for the GDX.
Since the rally began we have had a perfect 5 count sub waves up (completed)
This concludes the FIRST WAVE
Followed by a ABC correction (completed)
This concludes the SECOND WAVE
Here is a description of a FIVE COUNT. (Both Major and Minor sub waves have the same structure)
A FIVE COUNT is
FIRST WAVE up (contains 5 sub waves)
SECOND WAVE down
THIRD WAVE up
FORTH WAVE down
FIFTH WAVE up
We are currently in the 3 sub wave up of the (THIRD WAVE) up
This projection tags the high for this 3 sub wave as
31.30 on 26th July
Followed by 4 sub wave down (corrective)
This projection tags the low of this 4 sub wave as
29.05 on 1st Aug
Next a Fifth sub wave up tags
36.05 on 6th Sept
THIS COMPLETES THE THIRD WAVE
Further out it sees a corrective FORTH WAVE wave tagging
31.36 on Sept 29
Now the fun begins THE FIFTH WAVE
The (5) wave tags 45.54 (off the image) peaking on 11 Jan 2017
The Yen is surging today. It turns out Kuroda is now saying “no helicopter money” Thats giving PM’s a nice bounce.
This one has some great Supporters
Gold’s current action is simply part of the old Brexit breakout- Matterhorn top move. We got the breakout and now we have the back test. I don’t know of any way to assuredly predict how deep the BT has to go. Many methods have been postulated, but frankly I for one don’t know how to handicap it. But I would suspect 2 likely scenarios. #1 is we have seen enough and we can now go higher and resume the march higher. #2 is we need to base a bit more and perhaps make investors sweat a bit more first. That would be the shakeout down to the Blue dashed line around the 1282 level. That would of course hammer the HUI.
Myself I removed half my chips off the table back on July 6-8 after my proprietary oversold indicator triggered a top. Yesterday I bought back 1/3 of the positions I had sold. As for me I would like to see the full shakeout. I don’t like to trade these moves but this was an exception.
I have been a strong advocate of be right-sit tight for the entire move, and I still stand by it, however I received such a strong definitive signal that I had to partially get off my horse. It was such a strong trigger that I went back and checked and it was the most extreme overbought cluster of indicators in the last 15 years. Pretty incredible. But here is the thing, the fact that we have only pulled back slightly indicates to me that this move up is extraordinarily strong and once it resumes we could get a rapid surge to my original forecast of HUI 350. Possibly this is the set-up for that move. Maybe its a fuel stop along the way sucking in short sellers so it will be the fuel of short covering that will power the move from here. Just a thought.
Here’s my EW software’s take of the XAU. This doesn’t mean your software is wrong because AGET could easily convert the 5 to a 3 with bullish action. Also, note the wave 5 projections of roughly 111 and 132. I suspect that if the XAU blows through 111 AGET will turn the 5 into a 3 and confirm your software’s projections. Cheers.
Gold close to two potential support lines on my chart, one parallel to the larger blue pitchfork and also the upper rail of the smaller light blue fork. Both care close to $1310 as of 15 July, St. Swithin’s Day, so let’s hope it doesn’t rain!
The test of support at the light blue line is a potential back-test of the breakout above the light blue fork that already happened. I have seen these two forks as roughly equal in importance in the price action since the December lows:
Chart watchers are watching.
“Fully Good grief, I just cannot believe they are viewing you as a one sided gold bug…unbelievable! This is totally out of control. No one is giving you credit except for Cedarwood…shssssssss”
Thanks my friend. Its a thankless job sometimes
Been thru this a few times before at the various forums I moderate.
Don’t dare call into question the tempestuous star darling brat poster who will take his ball and go home at the drop of a hat .
Oh please Don’t go..It was that despicable ahole Fully who disrespected you not us !
I don’t like it but It bothers me less each time .
Goldtent TA Paradise is free for all to participate and read as you know .
We get many many messages from appreciative readers …so that’s really rewarding
We do this for three reasons .
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…but alas the entitled still want to bash me for messing with their baby. How dare I point out the pitfalls of the Leveraged PM ETFs
How dare I call into question a trade gone horribly wrong ?
I got a few emails from disenchanted new traders.
Will post one I just received later.
Fully the Bully
OK Here it is
” Sir. I have been reading you goldtadise for several months now. I am a new dad in my final year of college . I was directed to your website by a friend who made a lot of money following your trades and more particularly he said Mark was the one to follow. I am new to this stuff.
In June I got my first brokerage account and put my savings of $10,000 into it. I decided to put the money into Mark’s trade as I heard he was the best and that he made a shipload in gold trades. I bought DUST and JDUST and in 2 weeks lost almost half my money. After reading your different opinion I got out just monday this week and now these stocks have gone wild. This has been a terrible experience. Why in god’s name do you not warn people like me sooner. I read your kamikazi post today. thanks a lot too late.
So there you have it Jim Its all fun and games until someone loses an eye
I forget sometimes that there are many inexperienced traders reading here who need to be considered…my bad
…I think I will post this…thanks for the support and good night
Thought I would share what my Elliott wave software has found on the $XAU index (explanation to follow):
Please refer to the above chart as I explain. I will try to be as brief as possible…
So we have had a five wave move from Jan 19 to May 17 and a three wave correction from May 17 to May 25. By the rules of Elliott Waves, if this set up occurs, then five waves must follow whether it is an impulsive or corrective wave. As you can see above, starting at May 25 to present, we have had only three complete waves, the fourth is currently in progress.
Another basic tenant of Elliott waves is that wave 4 cannot cross into wave 2 territory. If you then put these two ideas together then the index has tipped its hand. It is telling us that the current decline cannot (under the as-labeled analysis) fall below 95. One more subtly is that when dealing with commodities like gold or silver, there can be a very slight overlap. Having said all that, it becomes obvious that a good place to buy might be in the upper to mid nineties with a tight stop a little below 95, say 93.
(Refer to the wave starting May 25 to present). This should complete wave four and start wave five. Since wave three is longer than wave one, wave five will most likely be equal in duration and amplitude to wave one. This would be about a 15 point gain and put the index somewhere over 110.
If indeed we fall below 93, then the wave would have been mislabeled and would most likely lead to a much deeper retrace. Cheers!
EDIT: I should probably also add that this would complete the larger waves 1-2-3 and 4 would then start, which would be a very significant correction (probably the one everyone is looking for right now).
Double Headed H&S formation. Target on break out is about 200 expected around September 1st. Stop above the two heads. Allow for possible false break of channel as we enter high volatility period. Re-enter short on any re-test of broken neckline for likely lower target end of November. Am using LABD as trading vehicle which has a longer term target of 80.
Also, if you think oil will break down soon look at RUSS. I have a longer term target of 70 on this. Obviously small positions to begin with and take partial profits when appropriate (overbought/ negative divergence etc on the way).