Goldtent TA Paradise
Is anybody else experiencing difficulties accessing SpockM website today??
I don’t want to bother Fully, he may have his hands full at this moment.
But I did see that “SOMETHINGS UP” at SpockM on Twitter https://spockm.com/2016/05/06/somethings-up/
One thing for sure…they are going to be Scary…Again !
But so far all they have done is kept good traders on the sidelines.
One day they will matter….but may be a while yet
I hope you recognize that these PM stocks are doing well today. 🙂
As a long term investor in the gold sector I thought I’d share my personal experience thus far of what it’s like to buy and hold on the way down. I’ll share my purchases on just one of my positions: Yamana Gold. No, I’m not a high roller like some of you guys. But I’m doing this mainly with cash I can afford to lose.
This is a stock I first bought in January of 2014 at $9.00 a share. At the time, I thought it was a decent price because it was down from about $20.00 a share in 2012. As you know, Yamana went on to trade below $1.40 a share in January 2016. Brutal to say the least. But from the first purchase at $9.00, I was buying the whole way down, and reinvesting the dividends, so that in the end I am averaged in at $3.23 per share and currently up 39.99% and $768.40 on the position. This whole time I haven’t sold a single share of any gold stocks. I am holding out for a big pay day a few years down the road.
Here are my thoughts on the great hoped for correction in the HUI. Rambus drew out a great playbook observation card last night from a technical perspective, and here is what I see from a market history and psychological perspective. We all know we have a slew of gold bull wannabes that want into this bull trend in the worst way, but at yesterdays prices. They have lusted for a bull market in the PM stocks and have chased false bottoms all the way down in the bear market. So here we are now in an established uptrend and they find themselves on the sidelines or grossly underinvested. Thanks to the great advice of their preferred gold bug Gurus!
So the ulcers have been building on the sidelines watching the train leave the station. They need a “correction” or secondary reaction in the worst of ways. But here is the thing, a secondary reaction comes after everyone has gotten aboard the boat and are leaning over on the bullish side. It comes not when it is wanted or expected. It comes when the consensus is that prices must now advance higher. Clearly it is wanted now more than I have ever seen before, so I suspect that what we have seen is simply normal market breathing action. We might have even attracted some short positioning which may turn into a religious experience in short order to those positioned if we can run-up to a new high in the HUI. The bull has no desire accommodating these sidelined sympathizers, in fact he relishes seeing them looking from the outside in with hollow eyes.
I suspect the mini pull back is over
USDJPY backtesting 106.80, USD backtesting 93.70. I expect they’ll pick up downward speed in the next day or 2 while gold backs and fills. Weight of evidence shows USDJPY about to go on a plunge to below 103 very soon. Unless something changes, thats the way its headed. If the facts change, I’ll change my mind.
Remember “pop and drop” and how UVXY likes to make flags on the way up…I am traveling; thus unable to closely monitor. Good luck!
Richmont Mines’ Exploration Drilling Continues to Intersect Significant Gold Mineralization at Island Gold Both Laterally and at Depth and Intersects 9.71 g/t Over 8.00 Metres at the Kremzar Mine Regional Target
Whether you are Bullish or Bearish…I am sure you recognize what a surprisingly Strong day this is for Miners
The chart of daily prices over 6 months for security CDV
Detour Gold (dgc.to) and Kirkland Lake (kgi.to) making new highs for this new bull market. One hour chart has a fresh SAR buy signal.
I think the GLD, GDXJ & GDXJGR (GDXJ-GLD ratio), daily charts tell a story of gold fever in the junior miners during April:
Gold didn’t rise much but GDXJ rocketed anyway, as confirmed by GDXJGR.
IMO, the dollar looks ripe for a correction from oversold territory and I have 2 possible necklines I’m looking for it to test:
Similarly, FXE is looking to correct from overbought territory and I have a further 3 (posting 2 here), possible IH&S patterns,
which, I think, confirm the validity of the H&S patterns for UUP:
What’s interesting to me are UUP’s weekly charts and $USD’s monthly chart. As of now I’m favoring the 1st H&S pattern
posted above for UUP. If you cross reference that target with UUP’s weekly chart, it comes in at approximately the SMA 200,
which to me adds validity to the target:
The H&S target is also in the ballpark of the 38.2% retracement of the entire rally:
Jumping back to the “what is the correct neckline for the H&S pattern for UUP question”, the weekly line chart
seems to be saying it’s approximately 26:
Continuing with the “dollar is going to rally then fall again” theme, $USD’s monthly says to me it has further to fall:
Coming full circle, I think GDXJ is going to test it’s first Fib tracement level, which if it were to happen would
be an entirely normal correction.
GDXJGR needs to correct too. If GLD were to fall to approximatey 119.50 and GDXJ 30.55, GDXJGR would also
fall back to its first Fib R level:
I think if the Employment Situation numbers come in ok tomorrow, or strong, that will be enough for the dollar to
have its little rally before correcting again.
SPX with a positive divergence–closed shorts this afternoon; will reassess in the AM…
Watching backtests of moving averages…While I have to admit I am intermediate bearish, when I visualize a formation of a positive divergence I take heed!
JENKINSLANE SVXY IHS Still in play…We both like to dabble in SVXY/UVXY; I find his work very interesting and reliable…
UVXY 60 finds resistance yet again with the “layer” trend line; closed one penny above the 13 EMA.
Sandwiched between the overhead resistance and 13 EMA–tough call here…
GDX gets PLENTY of coverage here…gap fill with a positive divergence–I wait for direction…
Need some more indicator confirmation!