knock your sox off 2



Happy Thanksgiving Silicone Valley


GDXJ Stiff Resistance


Good Chance that’s all She Wrote

GDX cannot seem to break out of the $20.29 to $20.42 area on the THIRD attempt…

and GLD looks to be rolling over too…Just cannot get bullish at the moment…Still in Plunger’s “Annihilation Zone” and maybe this is just another bear market rally…Good Luck!





GDX 15

GDX 15


Trader Dan’s World

a free post already

Dan Likes HUI

Wow a whole new World for Trader Dan

From Trader Dan’s Blog

Monday, November 24, 2014

A Special Announcement

Dear Readers;

When I first began this site, more than three years ago, I did so for two reasons. First, I wanted to use it to both freely express my own personal views of the markets, without feeling constrained by the fact that I was a guest at the sites of others. Secondly, I wished to convey some of the knowledge I had gained from trading for many years to those who were attempting to learn how to understand and look inside the markets for themselves.

Regarding the latter of these, when I first started trading, I had no mentor, and no one I could look to in order to make sense out of what was happening. You talk about confusion and bewilderment! The sums of money I lost in gaining my experience were quite large to be honest. One could say that I paid dearly for my education at the School of Hard Knocks! Along that line there is an old joke in our profession:

“How do make a small fortune trading commodities?”

“Simple – start with a large fortune first!”

Some might think it rather quaint but in response to many emails I received back then from those who had read my writings, I was convinced that it might be a good thing to actually try helping these many wonderful folks learn how to make some informed trading/investment decisions on their own and thus rid themselves of dependency on others when it came to making wise choices into which to put their precious wealth.

After so many years of doing this, I think I might have succeeded in a small way based on some of the responses I have received from this, my current site. The old adage comes to mind: “Give a man a fish and feed him for a day. Teach a man how to fish and feed him for a lifetime”.

That being said, the amount of time and effort that this site takes from me can be overwhelming at times. I mentioned this a while ago when seeking the comments of some of my readers about trying to actually cut back or opening the site to accepting Donations or possibly going to per click advertising.

After much hesitation and with the friendly encouragement/ arm twisting from some of you kind readers, I decided to go with the Donation button.

I wish to publicly express how grateful I am too all of my readers who were gracious enough to reciprocate and make a kind donation. I understand how valuable that your money is to you and the fact that you have felt moved to freely contribute something towards my efforts, speaks volumes to me about your generosity of spirit and your thoughtfulness. From the bottom of my heart, “Thank You!” You will never know how incredibly encouraging your gifts were – especially when at times it seemed the vast majority of emails in my box were vile, insulting and rude ( coming from members of the gold cult – as we have come to expect).

As those of you know who have read here for any length of time, I make my living entirely in the markets as a trader. Nothing I have ever written in public, or spoken in an audio interview, has ever netted me a cent as I did it willingly and without charge. There does come a time however that the Scripture: “A laborer is worthy of his hire” becomes apropos. In discussions with my wife and some friends, I believe that this is that time.

I want to therefore announce that I will be starting a fee-paid site, Trader Dan’s World. Before some of you completely panic, I will be keeping the free site up and running so that the posting community can continue to have a place in which to swap notes and such. I intend to post one or two articles there during the week. That will allow for the current posting regulars to continue to interact; however, the new site will contain the bulk of my work.

The truth is that I have grown rather fond of some of my regular posters and although I have never met them, feel like I know them rather well as individuals because of the length of time that we have spent reading one another’s comments. I do hope some of you will be moved to come on over to the new site and give it a try.

I fully understand that for this decision, I will catch some grief from some of the gold bugs, especially those who love to somehow manage to accuse me of always having some sort of agenda ( what that is escapes me but I trust that these all-knowing and all-wise individuals, who somehow know me better than I know myself, will be more than happy to enlighten me as to exactly what that might be). Suffice it to say, that one of the pure delights in having a fee paid site that I hope to enjoy is to finally rid myself of having to deal in any form with such people. And I must also say that having to put up with their non-stop attacks and insults, merely for calling the market as I saw it in the charts, was ONE of the factors that went into my decision to move to this fee-paid site.

I suppose if they wish to continue their verbal assaults, they will have to fork over some cash for the privilege of so doing! Then again, considering the fact that none of them had the common trading sense to recognize a bear market and protect the value of their metals during a period of lower prices, I suspect that they are too busy nursing their many financial wounds to have any surplus cash available with which to contribute to my fee-paid site for the opportunity of continuing to insult their host. Let them grumble, murmur and complain therefore. I think the rest of us understand their kind!

A quick word about the new site – I intend to focus on more markets that just gold or mining shares. I have been introducing other markets here at my site for those who are interested in looking at some of the other futures markets. Believe it or not, there is an entire universe of commodity markets which can be traded and which offer profit potential for those who like doing something besides watching gold prices all day long. As some of you know by now, my special areas of expertise lie in the agricultural markets, the livestock and grain markets. Those are the markets that I cut my trading teeth on and the ones that I spend the most time dealing with during the normal trading day.

There are currency markets, and energy markets, as well as the bond market and of course the equity markets, that are all potential topics of articles that I will post and analyze from time to time. One thing that I can tell you, is that I will continue to call these markets as I see them, with no apologies for so doing. As I have said many, many times now, the business of a trader is to profit. Successful traders profit; those who fail make excuses. It is indeed that simple!

As a way of introduction, we are going to provide a one month free trial period for my current readers so that they dip their toes into the water and check it out. I am excited about the forum that we will be setting up as well as some of the social media inputs. We plan on the site being an ongoing work in progress, making improvements and changes to it as needed or suggested. Also, I am trying to work up something extra for all those who made Donations to this site as an extra way of saying “THANK YOU”.

In closing, I would like to thank all of my readers who have come here to read my thoughts over the years. It is an honor to have one’s views respected by a wide audience but it is also an honor that brings with it the responsibility to be truthful and to be honest. I have tried to take that charge seriously and I trust that you as my readers have seen this in my writings.


Dan Norcini

“Trader Dan”

Look Forward to you at Trader Dan’s World



The Mother of all smoke signals ?


GOLD $1431 and climbing

GOLD UP $ 150 in after hours !!


now up $127 but nothing else ..even silver is moving

April fools ?


wow..this is fun!

If you are not Short that is !

Maybe the nightwatchman had a heart attck and fell on the buy button ?


A Bug’s Nightmare



A Stock Market Blow Off started on 10/15 and is Intensifying ….

The failure of a perfect setup in the SPX reversion-to-mean trade and other market indicators argues that the 10/15 flash crash low started a STOCK MARKET BLOWOFF phase that is intensifying based on global GE, past and present, in the four major economies …. looking for a possible test of Nasdaq 5000 by X-mas …. any pullback in the QQQ going into Wednesday should be bought.


BBs are tightening on jdst 15 min

Expecting major move soon…one way or the other

The GDX may have finished a Large Wave A down from July 2011 to Nov 2014 – have we started a Wave B rally?

From an Elliott Wave point of view, we may have finished 5-waves down from July 2011 to Nov 2014 (Wave A) and we may have started a Wave B bounce that could last a few months.  This is a possible count if the 5th wave does not extend here.  Since we did 5-waves down from 2011, this implies more correction in time and price but maybe not right away.

The “small trader” component of the Comex gold COT report is showing historical levels of shorting after being bullish and wrong for three years running – CONTRARY BULLISH – this should be a worrisome point for those looking for $900 gold by early 2015.


Reversion to Mean Trade opened on the SPX’s gap up on Friday

The SPX gave us a beautiful set up for a “reversion to mean” trade on Friday’s gap up opening courtesy of the ECB QE purchases and the lowering of rates in China.  Some traders took a nice day trading profit on the morning’s decline – however, another leg down is possible into Tuesday.

The SPX rallied into the New Moon Timing window on Friday and this peaking energy held the markets up on Monday. We are looking for another leg down on Tuesday to below the 9-day EMA. The SPX may be vulnerable to a swift decline heading into the shortened holiday week.

Check out my blog  to follow this trade idea:


gap filled today....

gap filled today….

From Trader Dan’s World

Great Article on Oil Prices and OPEC

Posted on November 24, 2014,12:40 pm by Trader Dan

I suggest that my readers take some time out to read the following most interesting article in the London Telegraph. Leave it to the British financial press to publish these excellent reads.

No matter how one feels about crude oil, it is a fact that its price has collapsed. Some of this of course is tied to the slowdown in global economic growth, but it is indisputable that it is also tied to the emergence of the US as a powerhouse in crude oil production.

Crude is one of those commodities that impacts nearly everyone one on the planet as energy costs are part of the food we eat, the heating and cooling of our homes, offices and buildings, and the transportation of the goods that we consume. Lower crude prices are a boon to consumers at a time in which wages are relatively stagnant.

Personally I believe lower oil prices have far more impact on the consumer than any QE programs implemented by the Central Banks or interest rate cuts by China. Those assume that lower rates will spur borrowing and thus economic growth but what guarantee is there that just because money is cheaper to borrow, that folks will make a beeline to the nearest bank to do just that?

However, cheaper energy costs are felt immediately by everyone putting more disposable income in the pocket of the consumer and lower business costs in moving goods or in their production.

Off topic, ref Banking and

This came in from a good friend.  Also love this site,

The story that interested me most was the one on the state bank of North Dakota.  N.D. is doing well financially, unlike the other 49 states and it is claimed it is because of their state bank.  The article is by Ellen Brown, whose book, Web of Debt, I read and even though I have a hard time understanding our money system, her book was understandable.

I asked our governor-elect before he was elected about getting a state bank in Illinois, he didn’t think much of the idea.

Informative website.

JDST 5…Expecting BO Up…

jdst 5

JDST GDXJ – Long target for JDST is 17 +/- entry 14.5 14.25

POSTED IN Rambus Forum – Delayed Post

GDXJ Daily, we are fighting this up move in the Super Traders Index

JNUG 2 hour not looking good

Daniel code has sell orders on GOLD and SILVER.

Low for JDST came 1 hr into market day



My signal called the TOP at 1900

Wish I had developed this signal back then… ; – )

Doing some long term work a-la Ramb.  Different views same objective – to 798




EURO Approaching critical levels???

sc (6)


Jdst was nearly double last weeks volume(and new all time highs) but at the recent high 41.83 x vol 14 m approx = 585m bucks traded vs this week at 14.76 x 39m shares traded =

drum roll please……

575 million

so whats it all about alfie? buyers vs sellers, not necessarily volume because it is scewed by these etf’s re balancing at the end of day(take a look at the volume surge every day at 3:05 on the nose practically…and the change of direction. Who can decifer this stuff? likely a good reason to watch oba and a/d instead of volume?

Some Dollar Charts

Long Term Linear Line ( THE BREAKOUT )


Long Term Linear Log (THE TARGET)


Weekly Candlesticks (THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT)




Rambus Recent target







Sorry guys,   I don’t know how to get these in focus.

Use this and go to full screen

Long Long term Gold Silver DX and PA

Gold Silver DX and PA VERY LONG TERM CHARTS 10 to 20 years  

The moving averages are 36 48 and 96 months… That’s  3 year, 4 year and pink 8 year  SMAs.

FIB TARGETS Show interesting  sequence of targets.  GOLD 1136  |  SILVER 13.76  |  PLATINUM 1182.3

THE DX wants 89.87  

 These are FIB PIVOTS  drawing an  A B C pattern  The yellow line is 25% Entry, Black 50% and Green Bold Target

Try this if it’s out of focus

ALL 4 Charts