watching+paint+dry+5

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Gold 4 Hour Chart

Which ever way this breaks out …will be the next ST trend

Watching and Waiting is tough but safe

gold-1

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NUGT Update

After trading this a few years, I’ve learned NOT to trade it when the MACD is in the “NO TRADE ZONE”… The RSI(5) is a little tricky (ie, count dependent) but generally when it falls between 20-30 expect lower… Note also that the ULT leading indicator is pointed down…. More sideways to down pricing expected…. I’m still hopeful in that the EWO is near perfect….

0804_NUGT

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DUST 60 Parabola continues to hold…

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DUST&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=15&id=p20910604389&listNum=1&a=388664339

TRIX is a buy; watching upper bollinger reaction

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DUST&p=2&yr=0&mn=0&dy=2&id=p13175210659&a=417753534&listNum=1

symmetrical triangle getting ready to break

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GDX Update

GDX Daily Chart would be bullish but for one leading indicator…. The ULT is pointed DOWN!!!

0804_GDXUpdate

Update: If this guy does turn south the (i)=(v) target would be around 11.36 assuming (iv) ended at 14.38… My chart does not reflect updated counts…

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NUGT 15 Back test….

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NUGT&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p17072702971&listNum=1&a=418949985

nugt

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MA now seems to be indicating that the bounce may not happen.. ????

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35658

Gold remains extremely weak. We need a daily closing above 1108 to say the low is in place temporarily and a bounce back up is possible. The 1080 level is critical support on a daily closing basis and it remains possible that gold can break to the downside moving into September if the July low gives way.

Since the Monthly Bearish at 1155 was elected on the closing of July, typically we would see a rally back to that level to retest it before we see lower prices. A two month reaction rally into September would be followed by a renewed decline into the Benchmarks.

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Dollar Update – Expecting Higher

Dollar strength today has altered my count. It looks like 2 finished at 25.19 and we’re on our way up in five waves to complete the 3. Wave (i) completed today at the close. I’m looking for a wave (ii) pullback to the 50% mark around 25.35…. EWO is confirming. We were expecting a lower low below 25.18 to complete the C wave of 2; however, we only got 25.19… I’ll take that as a double bottom…

0804_DollarUpdate

Sorry to say this opens the door to lower commodity prices…. If Gold holds 1070 or so we may get a corrective bounce back to the 1098 area before heading lower to complete the (v) of 3…. Tomorrow should be interesting….

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GG – Leads GDX Much of the Time – Long Bounce?

GG may be signaling a bounce soon in the GDX….as usual….may get long for a little.

GG

 

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New SPY Phantom — To Upside

0803_SPYPhantom

… and another one

0803_SPYPhantom2

10-day

0803_SPY10Day

…. even more near close

0803_SPYPhantomevenmore

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I like Armstrong!!!

We have a Directional Change back to back for August and September and July was a turning point. So, we may see a reaction to the upside to flush out the shorts at this time since we have excessive bearishness building in the press as the WSJ comment that gold is the “pet rock”.

A reaction rally at this point BEFORE new lows will relieve the short positions but this is not likely to last beyond September. Therefore we are more likely than not going to see the final decline stage into the Benchmarks. Gold is within the channel so the resistance is forming now at the 1155 level followed by 1225-1300. Support will remain at 1084 on a closing basis with key support at 900.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35597

0803_Armstrong

So I read this as we go up through August 31 then down through September 21 then up through Sept 30/Oct 1 then DOWN to final lows!!!!  Do you guys read it this way???? BTW this matches what I would expect for the larger Wave 4… hmmmm…..

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DUST 60 watching the upper trend line

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DUST&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=15&id=p20910604389&listNum=1&a=388664339

 

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DUST&p=2&yr=0&mn=0&dy=2&id=p13175210659&a=417753534&listNum=1

 

 

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HUI Monthly

HUI Monthly 8:3:15

Macd on the HUI monthly is close to turning down. The monthly RSI and ultimate oscillator have room to move lower.

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Full Circle

only much more brutal

http://schrts.co/OsWdzu

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Sunday Morning Thoughts

Dollar:  By my EW count we need a little more downside to complete the 2… CCI and RSI are telling me to expect lower pricing ahead… EWO likewise needs a lower low unless we call the 25.19 a double bottom which is not supported by EW count… BTW guys I’m in a minority on this chart — most see the dollar going higher…. hmmmm……

0802_Dollar

GDX:SPY Daily: Bullish Chart. Trigger line crosses.  Price Divergence. Note this is a Heikin-Ashi Chart…

0802_GDXSPYDaily

GLD:SPY Daily: Bullish Chart. Trigger line crosses.. Double bottom with target highlighted. Also a Heikin-Ashi Chart…..

0802_GLDSPYDaily

GDX Daily: Bullish Chart. Trigger line crosses. Price divergence. Still a question of what wave 4 we’re in. 15 Min Chart Inset says we’re in smaller wave 4 up BUT this also looks like a triangle… hmmmm….. The fact that the Daily chart is bullish is a big deal and favors more upside….

0802_GDXDaily

Clive’s Index chart: Looks like another test of downtrend line coming… Chart is bullish with trigger line crosses… Remember the more tests of the trend line the greater the chances of moving above it…. Just Sayin’…..

0802_CliveIndex

Clive’s Buy/Sell Gold at Extremes Chart: Pretty Extreme… and Bullish….

0802_Extreme

YEN Daily: Trigger line crosses to upside. Gold follows YEN….. Matrix Rules!!!!

0802_YenDaily

GLD Daily:  Looks like (iii) has completed and we’re in wave (iv) up – target: close the gap… this is the smaller wave 4 not the larger wave four… if we exceed the gap then in all likely hood it’s the larger 4…. That black oxy is a little concerning since it means a trend change and SlowSTO pointing down –  we’ll “ass-u-me” up since it looks like the minuette ii has just completed….

0802_GLDDaily

 

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Where commodities seem to be heading

sc sc

the bear market in commodities is good for the gold miners, as the price of gold is now in a bull market relative to the commodities in general, which means mining input costs are coming down, so in theory the miners should start to improve margins, as the cost of mining comes down

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I Do Not Agree with Armstrong’s View of Money

I have nothing against Armstrong.  He has his computer model, and maybe it’s a very accurate model for forecasting.  Some of the comments he makes about money, gold, and hyperinflation in his blog, however, leave me scratching my head at the apparent absurdity of it.

In his most recent piece about gold, Armstrong makes this comment: “We are NOT looking for the low in gold to be on October 1 either. If that materialized, it would be extremely profound. However, the more likely event will be the rush to cash completing the final Flight to Quality.”

Here Armstrong seems oblivious to the idea that a “final rush to cash” and a “low in gold” occurring at the same time would make a lot of sense and actually even be expected.  Yet he speaks of these two events as mutually exclusive and totally unrelated.  It’s as if he is saying that he’s not expecting a low in gold in October, because that would be profound, but what would be more likely in October is a final high in the dollar.  See what I’m saying?

Armstrong again: “Those who have projected hyperinflation have no sense of history nor of what they even forecast. ALL tangible assets rose in such events – not exclusively gold.”

Anyone forecasting such an event knows that all assets rise during hyperinflation.  We all know that as cash loses its value, real goods and commodities become the store of the value that the cash has lost.  So while the people Armstrong is speaking of would think it wise to carry gold and silver coins in their pockets as their store of value during a hyperinflation, Armstrong apparently thinks it would be just as wise to lug around barrels of oil, bushels of wheat, bottles of whiskey, sheep, and cows to use as a medium of exchange as a replacement for the failed currency.

Finally: “When gold rises, other assets will rise as well. Even in a hyperinflation, all assets make that transition to the new land of currencies. The German Rentenmark that replaced the hyperinflation currency was backed by real estate instead of gold. So do not listen to the gold promoters as they speak with forked-tongue. Sure, gold will rise, but so will equities and in the end real estate…” 

Think carefully about Armstrong’s comment regarding the Rentenmark.  If this was a sound currency backed by real estate, how convenient was it really?  So if I was an average German with several 50 Rentenmark notes in my possession and I thought the politicians and bankers were playing fast and loose with the currency, how easy do you think it would be for me to go into a bank and exchange those Rentenmarks for the real estate that backed them?  What were they going to do?  Take your Rentenmarks and give you a deed for a few square centimetres of real estate somewhere out on top of a mountain?  Is he serious?  Has he even thought about why silver and gold are used for money instead of other goods?  Has he forgotten the history of money even in the United States where you could walk into a bank with cash and come out with a fixed amount of silver coin jingling in your pocket which those notes represented?  I know that was before our time, but it is history for crying out loud.  Could you imagine a currency supposedly being backed by oil?  You walk in to the bank to exchange your notes and they forklift a barrel of black crude out to your car and drop in on the roof?  It’s as if he has no inkling as to why gold and silver were ever used as money, as opposed to bananas, coconuts, or milk.

 

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Wow… Zerohedge has been busy!!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-01/did-we-just-hit-threshold-short-covering-gold

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-01/gold-and-grave-dancers

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-01/11-red-flags-we-enter-pivotal-month-august-2015

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Couple of notes from Cobra’s Saturday Update

Top Chart: Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows more distribution than accumulation, so the trend is not officially changed (to up) yet.

Bottom Chart: Smart money near record short despite huge rebound this week, so it’s case 1 below, I read it really bad for bulls.

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

0801_Cobra

Friday was a Bearish Reversal Day (open high, higher high but eventually closed in red), so very good chances there’d be a from high to low mini 2% pullback soon. The high is not necessarily Friday’s high though, in some cases, SPY may go up for a few more days before the from high to low mini 2% pullback.

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Will the downtrend channel of gold hold or break decisively to the downside?

Good question: Will the downtrend channel of gold hold or break to the downside?

Who knows? $1080 could have been forecasted as the channel floor for mid-2015 as far back as the turn of this year. The low on this chart of 22 July was $1080.00 but that has since been exceeded to the downside, although gold is still hanging on at $1095 as I post.

The downtrend channel in gold since late 2013 has narrowed from around $254 in 2013 to $170 now. It’s only just wedge-shaped. I wonder at what point of narrowing a channel becomes a wedge?

The channel ceiling is at about $1250 and the floor is at $1080, so stepping down that channel depth ($170) would give a new range from $910 to $1080. If it takes a little time to get to the $910 target, then it could go lower because the channel is downsloping.

$1080-(1250-1080)=$910.

So, $890 is well in the sights if the current trend channel breaks down and if a new lower trading range persists parallel to this one, sloping at about $50 every 6 months, Rick Ackerman’s $817 target could be reached in under a year. 

http://www.kereport.com/2015/07/20/rick-real-irony-markets-today-conventional-markets-correct-inevitable-gold-hold/

http://www.kereport.com/2015/07/20/doctor-commenting-drop-price-gold/

Also, in late 2014-early 2015 there was a lot of trading in gold around the old $1180 support level, with the recent fall taking price well below that. Wouldn’t it be a pig if there is a dead cat bounce rally to $1180 imminently and a failure of bullish sentiment there, to enable us to get a real good downleg going afterwards?

I would also like to ask Fullgoldcrown, Plunger and others who have done so much interesting work on bear market charts how they view the current gold, silver and miners’ charts in comparison to the post-1980 bear market. Are there any posts that study the post-1980 precious metal charts?

The best 1980-1999 gold charts that I could find outside this site were from Peter Brandt. Has anyone done a study on gold 1980-1999 in a similar way to your chart studies of Dow 1929-32, Nikkei 1989-92, etc?

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ABX : A STUDY IN PERFECT CHARTOLOGY

ABX

This stuff is amazing

FBO = FALSE BREAKOUT
DT = DOUBLE TOP
BO – BREAKOUT
BT= BACK TEST
PO = PRICE OBJECTIVE 9VASED ON FIRST IMPULSE MOVE
1 2 3 4 DEFINES THE PATTERN AS A CONTINUATION

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Rambus : COPPER TOP

http://rambus1.com/?p=41847

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biotech abandoned the baby

sc   sc2

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Weekly COT Reports

0731_COT

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Thought this was bad last month lol

crikey….
http://schrts.co/VpCZWj

hmm
http://schrts.co/7MkWKq

http://schrts.co/UDMdKR

nice looking flag but 890 looks plausable?
http://schrts.co/5Od9aR

pst fully your leader eld.to is leading up 10.64%

adem

look at the difference, gdx sold off from 10 am on, eld onward and upward from 10am. to new highs of day. And how do they control these miners again?

http://schrts.co/kPKlQS

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THE PEAK

I am going on record right here. The biotech has peaked. Am short biotech.

sc

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JDST Consolidation – Waiting…..zzzzzzzzzz…..

These consolidation periods always take longer than expected.  I’m daytrading and keeping lots of dry powder for when the market serves us an ideal entry.  Hoping for JDST at $12.50.  Bulls will think gold is going back to 1130 (which it’s not until we see lower lows) and bears will be forced to cover.  The underlying trend has the odds to take and maintain charge….we can see it in the resistance in many timeframes.

JDST

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NEM

Newmont Mining…One of the Worlds largest Gold Mining Companies

One of the worst Looking Charts I have ever seen !

Bulls Take Note

LOOK at todays Candle

NEM

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GDX 15Min Update

Wave 1 target hit.. Projected 13.92 we got 13.97… Wave 2 pullback now…. Projected Wave 3 at 14.48… Well let’s see… as long as the gap isn’t filled we’re moving up…

0731_GDX15Min

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Gold just giving a weak bounce into the Full Moon Timing Window – looking bearish for another leg down

We were looking for a EW zig-zag bounce after the test of $1072 last weak but the rally pattern into today’s Full Moon has morphed into a weak looking “EW flat correction” with the C-Wave unable to take out $1106.  Unless we can take out $1106 by Monday we are leaning on the bearish side here.

Despite capitualtion signals from the Comex gold COTs last weak, the tape in gold looks weak – just short-covering bounces in gold that get quickly retraced.  A close below $1080 – the 50% retracement of the 1999-2011 bull market would imply another leg lower to test $1030.

Trader Jack

To follow the waves and turn windows of the SPX and gold, follow my blog:

http://allstarmarkettiming.typepad.com/my_weblog

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