Jack Chen On PM sector Sell

Jack Chen:
Summary

Long term – on a new major buy signal, ending the major sell signal from early 2012.
Short term – on sell signals.
Gold sector cycle – is down.
Caution is advised as a multi-week correction is in progress.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan053016.html

MUX.TO Daily…

Just filled the gap and bouncing back up…Yes, if this does not hold the 200 MA is very possible…
MUX

$TNX

There’s a possible H&S on $TNX weekly I’ve been watching for a while that is quite ominous:

$TNX

If this pattern were to activate and previous correlations held, it would imply significantly higher gold prices and would not be positive for SM’s.

The gold shakeout continues, stay the course!

This pullback is healthy and expected and every gold bull market in the past has experienced this sort of oscillation. The fact that we just exited one of the longest bear markets means we may be in for one of the longest and most substantial bulls ever. Let’s revisit this bull analog chart we have published before, with the help from our good friend Jordan Roy-Byrne from www.thedailygold.com.

http://www.mining.com/web/how-low-can-gold-go-the-gold-shakeout-continues-stay-the-course/

HGD.TO

Up 300%…

HGU.TO

Tonight’s action is certainly beginning to look like a failed bear raid

A quick dump on a Sunday night into a US trading holiday to break 1200??????  At the moment, it looks to have failed.

Inflection point

Well, here are my lines in the sand for GOLD and HUI, as posted before. The falling wedge on GOLD plus the expanding falling wedge on HUI. They match each other in time and both are at the crossroads right here.
GOLD fall wedge mHUI motsv guld falling wedge 3 år

I do not like what I see on the USD today. It gapped over the resistance line. If it can´t get back below we are in trouble here. Hoping for a FBO, which would fit pretty well looking at GOLD and HUI above.
USD gapped resistance lineUSD gapped

Borrowed this chart on GOLD from Rambus and draw in the blue and pink. Hoping this is not what we have in front of us.
GOLD borrowed R not fun really IF
Seems like GOLD is BT its EMA30 weekly today. Pretty interesting right now.

ADDED:
Still in the backtest camp (as Fully phrased it) and looking for a second leg. For now that is. The support lines on GOLD and HUI above have to hold as I see it.

ADDED2:
This falling wedge on GOLD on the daily looks pretty interesting too. Its tip is right on the EMA30 weekly which it is BT right now (not shown here). Can that below be a FBO and an around the apex move..?
GOLD falling wedgeGOLD falling wedge2

And the fact that it is just 1,5 days left of the month could create a really interesting candle for June, which in turn would be a bit needed since the chart above shows a bearish engulfing for GOLD on the monthly.

Manipulation

I also just want to post another perspective on manipulation.  I know many feel strongly about it.  And, I have seen one analyst in particular who claims he has traded better trying to “guess” where it will occur.  Clearly, this is the most ridiculous perspective I have ever heard in my life, and all it tells me is that he “guesses,” and does not trade or provide real analysis.  But, my overall perspective on manipulation is presented here, if anyone is interested.  Enjoy the weekend and thanks for letting me into your blog.

 

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/market-manipulation-and-dark-secret-finally-revealed

 

Trend Lines

I have heard a bit about your blog here, and have read a few things posted. The operators of the blog were quite gracious to allow me to post when I asked.

The one thing that strikes me is how much importance and reliance is given to trend channels.

Being a technician, I personally do not give much credence to the fundamental side of the market.   Most of us have come to recognize that FA is no different than simple trend following, and it has hurt metals traders for years.  But, isn’t that what you are doing by placing such importance upon trend channels?  Just throwing the question out there.  For me, it is within the lower level of reliable technical tools I use.  JMHO

Rambus Weekend Report

Not being posted anywhere else .

https://rambus1.com/2016/05/29/weekend-report-100/

DX

New highs by August? Wolfe wave in possible play, pink trend is running with previous black trending price points.

Chart in comments

RSI extreme long squeeze

imageJust wanted to post this chart. I just think that the selling in gold is overdone. The RSI is sitting on the trendline and it hasnt been this low since the december 2015 low. No matter how you look at it this is due for a bounce. This is what you call a long squeeze.  Looks like a low risk entry because fear seems to be extremely high.

NATGAS Pending BO???

NatGas Daily

BREXIT and the FED and Gold

Reply to a comment from DaveinThe UK

Good Points Dave

Maybe Brexit is being discounted now as you say

But as to a FED Hike being bearish for commodities and Gold ?

A Fed Raise in December fuelled a $200 run up in gold

Fed Raise in June = ???

Look we all know about as much about all this as is necessary to keep us confused

Never thought I’d say this but…Fundamentals are unknowable by all except Mr Market who it is said knows a full 6 Months before we Mortals….that’s why …Its ALL in the charts

We are all here because we Wanna make money trading gold …right ?

Well…there are still some who just wanna be right

But For those in the former ….We encourage you to learn some form of TA and understand price charts or you have NO CHANCE …trading on what you THINK should happen….think about it….yikes ( Most of us who have traded the PMs for a couple decades or more have learned this the hard way !) We have Scars and bruises in some very delicate places .

Charts …..as well as being very useful…. if you take the time to learn how to interpret them…are Endlessly Fascinating.

Rambus Motto Modified.

Give a man a chart and he eats for a day…Teach a man to chart and he starves..(but if he sticks with It) He eats for lifetime……even if sometimes its Crow.

🙂

HEY DAVE….I just realized You are IN The UK…..so what do you and your peers think is going to happen

Quebec tried to succeed from Canada with a vote and the seperatists lost by less that .01 %

One more person voted OUI and they would be out by now.

Scotland…pretty much ditto

So Britain ?

SLV

Classic bullish set up and dead simple to keep losses minimal if the trade goes against you. What a wonderful move this has been out of a bottoming base. Textbook….but never guaranteed!

SL

ECM Has Made a Grave Error

He has taken a Rambus Chart from 1 year ago and has said NOTHING has Changed and the Target is still valid $700

Here is Rambus Chart ( as posted by ECM below)

ecm1

Here is the Chart ( recreated just now ) 1 year later

Nothing has Changed >? This is absolutely false and misleading

Everything has changed

The Black downtrend channel has been soundly broken

The Blue Falling Wedge has been broken and backtested once and now about to be again

The 65WEMA has been exceeded and is moving UP for the first time since the bear began and is being backtested

ECM should have paid a lot more attention to detail before posting such a chart !

ecm2

Awaiting acknowledgement of this grave error and acknowledgement that ECM knows very little to Nothing about Chartology

Fully

My observation

I am not sure how to say this and it is not my intention to hurt anyone, we all come here to share our observations and to learn off of each other, there are many here who read attaining knowledge and do not post, many charts being posted with different view points means more knowledge, but we need to remain united in our purpose. My purpose is to learn TA and become a great trader, we need to remain civil & respectful in our posts. We are at a fairly pivotal point here in my opinion as Gold sits on or is very close to some important EMA/MA’s and support/resistance depending on how the charts are drawn which is perception and interpretation. The USD is also at a pivotal point, either tapping resistance or just cleared support depending on how you have structured your chart.

My point is that I think we have some very low risk set ups here whether you are a bear or a bull and the trend line,EMA, MA cross whether up or down is the line in the sand and the trade can quickly be reversed if these lines in the sand are crossed. This is not about being right, it is about us all contributing and prospering, the more we all learn faster means we have that many more eyes on the wall so we can all identify hazards or opportunity, in short we all take care of each other and all prosper together.

I don’t want to leave anyone out and please do not take offense if I don’t mention your name as I have learnt a lot from everyone, but the posts that have stood out lately are from Surf, Mark, Eagle & Plunger. Why? Because they have identified entry points, exit points (line in sand to bail), what they are seeing at that point in time and possible outcomes, this is educational.

Mark did a post the other day that stated what he was seeing, expectations, pitfalls, low risk entry and his line in the sand exit point, in my eyes this was perfect. It should not be construed as trading advice but as a strategy that anyone learning can use as a guide for entry and exit points to gain first hand knowledge by trading it, living it, with low risk set ups.

Thank you to all the contributors, I have learned much over the last 7 months but still thirsting for knowledge so keep the TA coming.

Again, Thank you.

Major Cycle Low Upcoming in Gold…but

Major Cycle Low Upcoming in Gold
May 19, 2016
There is a major cycle low looming for gold prices. Ideally it should arrive as a price low in late 2016. But based on history, it could arrive anytime between August 2016 and March 2017, and still fit within the normal tolerance.

Defining a normal tolerance for gold’s 8-year cycle is a pretty iffy proposition. We have only 5 prior examples to go by, and while they cover a period of over 40 years, anyone who ever studied statistics knows that n

If you are willing to accept the message from fewer iterations, then this week’s chart has some interesting insights to offer. A few years ago I constructed this idealized 8-year cycle pattern, and featured it in our newsletter. The one leg up, 3-waves down pattern has “worked” ever since gold finally started trading freely in 1975, with one major exception. From 2001 to 2009, the normal “left translation” flipped to a more bullish right translation mode. Aside from that one strong uptrending period, gold’s price pattern has matched this artificial pattern pretty well.

The relevance of that insight for the current period is that the next major 8-year cycle bottom is due this autumn. Ideally it should be due in February 2017, but another tool suggests that late 2016 is more likely to see the arrival of that bottom.

Gold 13-1/2 month cycle
There is a dominant 13-1/2 month cycle in gold prices. The next major cycle low is ideally due in October 2016, but gold regularly makes bottoms plus or minus a month from the ideal cycle bottoms. So this is not a tool that will allow anyone to reasonably pencil in a hard date for when the cycle low is due.

Still, an autumn 2016 bottom for the 13-1/2 month cycle fits well with the idea of a major 8-year cycle low due in late 2016 to early 2017. One additional insight from the 13-1/2 month cycle is that we have already seen “right translation” of the price pattern versus this cycle, and that one piece of information conveys bullish portents for the likelihood of a higher price high for gold in 2017, once we get past the upcoming big cycle low.

Bottom Line: We have two major long-term cycles, both calling for an important bottom in gold prices in late 2016. That’s a big deal. The two are independent of each other, and their confluence in calling for a bottom later this year has strong implications. Gold prices ought to be expected to drop downward into that cycle low, but more importantly we should expect a big uptrend to commence out of that major cycle bottom. It will be hard for gold bugs to be patient and wait for that major cycle low to arrive, but the long term cycles say that the ensuing rally should be worth the wait.

 

note the green lines in the cycle (uptrend vs downtrend) We are clearly in an uptrend.

$XEU – $XJY

Possibilities abound…
$Euro – sitting at support

sc

$YEN – The trend is your friend

sc

In theory, Theory and Practice are the same thing. In practice they are not. – Anonymous

Rambusology Revisited 1 Year Later. Nothing has changed! New Chart Update 30 May 2016

 

gold-weekly1-Rambus $700 gold-10-monthe-ema Rambus $700 gold-paabolic9may2014

Charts: These particular charts were publicly released by Rambus one year ago today. This was the first time that he visually identified $700 level targets into his projections for Gold based on his chart analysis. These targets are still in play. Nothing has changed long-term! New add-on 3rd chart from May 2014 again putting emphasis on the LONG TERM MULTI-Year picture. Just for you Fully, kisskiss.

Quote: {from recent Rambus update (5/18/2016}: “As long as the bottom rail of the bull market uptrend channel (for GOLD), which began to form back in 2001 remains unbroken, I will be a bull, and if it breaks then it’s back to the drawing board”.

Prediction: More than likely, to the drawing board Rambus (and everyone else) shall revisit.

Recommendation: Rambus, dust-off these 1 year old charts and do an update to have them ready to go so that you can front-run a blog post of the impending Downward move on our favorite metal. 😉

$700-$666 Gold IS STILL IN PLAY!!! $1300 Double-Top formation heading into the Notoriously Weak Precious Metal Summer Season!!! Yes, the Inflection Point has arrived. The Pain (for Longs) looks to be be Extended. DEFLATION! DEFLATION! DEFLATION! FED RATE HIKE in June may add the additional catalyst to drive the move in Gold lower. Get your insurance hedges positioned. June starts on Wednesday. The Fed meeting is on for the 14th and 15th. 

Regarding certain Goldtent posters – Alpha male chartists Spock and Mark exhibit classic bias mentality in assuming that they are representative of the minority consensus (and by default correct) on the future direction of precious metal prices. At least Rambus can shift gears. Just because you claim to own the minority opinion on a particular issue does not necessarily mean that you are correct. You should not be a cheerleader for Up or Down on Gold/gold stocks or any other tradable asset by assuming that you own the correctly perceived minority Opinion on asset future price movement. It is embarrassing to read. And no, I am Not cheerleading for Down on Gold. It just isn’t Time yet. Gold will go to $5,000 the ounce in the future but Not Yet! One last FAKEOUT move higher (which seems to be in place) and then the last (deflationaryCRASH lower which will more than likely coincide with the last push of institutional capital into the Debt markets creating the Peak in that particular market. After this happens, then it is ALL SYSTEMS GO for gold longs. I am speaking specifically to the metal and not necessarily to the miners, although the miners may make new lows as well (see R. Dennis quote below).

Special point to always remember about Gold: Institutional capital did not flee to Gold in 1998 (Russian debt crisis). Nor did institutions seek Gold in 2008 (Global financial crisis). And they will not go to Gold this year, next year or in 2018 if the current 10 year financial panic cycle continues. The Gold market is too small to shelter the enormous levels of capital sloshing around in the world. This is Fact not Opinion. Hate the truth all you want but the truth is thy truth.

2018: With interesting regard to 2018, conception of a new global currency within certain financial entities has been ongoing for around 30 years now. Back in January of 1988, The Economist magazine audaciously proclaimed “Get ready for a world currency” to be established around the year 2018, making the theme part of the public discourse. Who knows? That may well be the year when All financial market chaos reveals itself.

Quote from trading legend Richard Dennis:

You should expect the unexpected in this business; expect the EXTREME. Don’t think in terms of boundaries that limit what the market might do. If there is any lesson I have learned being in this business, it is that the unexpected and the impossible happen every now and then. So DON’T BE TIED TO HISTORY!

Good luck to Everyone as Everyone will need it going forward.

 

EW theory of wave 2

Looking at this gold correction from an Elliott wave perspective, it’s clear that what gold is currently experiencing is a wave 2 decline. As many of us know, the psychological purpose of the second wave is to cast doubt upon the reality of the new bull that everyone was previously thoroughly convinced of. This wave two has a job, and that job is to convince you that the gold bear market is still alive and well. It can retrace all of the first wave’s gains if it has to. The good news is that when the second wave is complete, the third wave is usually very powerful, leaving the prices reached in the first wave in the history books.

More gold charts…

GOLD

GLD

Simon: The Major Uptrends all broke except Silver

image

image

image

image

Simon, this is my reply to your comment.

I take tremendous pride in not “line fitting” for an agenda. I try to be absolutely as accurate as I can with my lines. For example on the Netdania charts above ANYONE can double check the accuracy of these. I connected lows to the left and let where it contacts out in the future be for anyone to see. This is EXTREMELY accurate software.

Gold and Oil both broke their respective long term trends. They have backtested with oil on the trendline NOW.

Silver found support and bounced off of it. I believe if my theory is correct it will break through in the ensuing months.

The XAU also just happens to have the similar trendline broken and backtested from below recently.

These charts are what they are. I didn’t however lay lines down to fit an agenda which I took offense to.

Gold Quarterly

Just because the Sure Thing indicator is pointing down like a runaway roller coaster, doesn’t mean it’s a sure thing literally ….does it?

Surely it will turn on a dime any minute now.

gold

Gold Monthly – My View (Lone Bull)

Mine is the only bullish view I’ve seen so far, even on an intermediate basis. I don’t agree with the way Chuck drew his TL but yes, it’s all interpretative and opinion. I don’t think a BT would occur until the $1,400 area which fits my $1,371 target post from last week. Also, since we are now on track to have 4 consecutive monthly closes above the 20ema, I think most are in denial that a trend change is very likely in the cards but 99% of you seem to feel the best odds are for fresh lows ahead. I will stick in my bullish camp until we see a June close below the 20ema. Again, so many folks trade what is “supposed” to happen instead of what “is” happening. Denial! 😉

Gold

Chuck

omg-the-poo-is-coming-out

THE Gold Right Shoulder

image

Sir Fully and I have been email exchanging. He mentioned how important he thought the dollar breakout was but also the right shoulders that were on the currency charts I posted recently. He had seen them as well and pointed their potential out in the past.

It made me go back and look at all of the charts again and potential “right shoulders”…. How about the right shoulder that may have just formed on gold! Sir Rambus has said that right shoulders form a lot of times after Backtesting major breakouts. Well shiitake mushrooms, that’s what we have here folks…

This is almost exactly like the major H&S that Sir Rambus had been pointing out previously just with the armpit of the right shoulder a little lower and with this last surge up to backtest the major breakdown as the right shoulder.

If this happens, this really, really means, as Sir Rambus had pointed out in the past, that the dramatic fall in 2008, will really turn out to have been nothing more than the LEFT SHOULDER of a MASSIVE Head and Shoulders formation. Mind boggling and one for the ages….

The Lost Practice of Buying Support and Selling Resistance

99% of the gurus are suggesting the $USD is going power through resistance and the GDX will crumble through support. The odds are far out of their favor. If I’m wrong I lose a miniscule amount, if they are wrong they lose big.

GDXUSD

Sam’s EW count for DX

My own work says either that we bottomed in DX last month (less likely given how everything else looks) or that we will soon after the next decline (more likely).

Sam’s wave count for DX (intermediate term) was just posted. And he takes the latter view, with a marginal new low ahead.
Those who look at markets as interconnected (I certainly do) see the dollar chart as the lynchpin to all the other charts we are most interested in.
PMs in particular.
Things will come to a head as summer begins to retreat. Gold 3 up should be the monster move for the dollar. China? Japan? Yurp? Who knows?
My own long term charts are shouting quite clearly that something big is indeed brewing.
No clue what. That kind of clarity almost always comes later, in any event.
“Don’t tell me why. Tell me WHEN!”

Sam_USDX_May16

Life is too peaceful between bulls and bears… a little pepper is needed !

He is convinced that the best entry (a bullcers paradise) would be around 150….which is well BELOW the blue line  Mark uses as a support zone to sell any PM’s related investment…..

Will we continue to act in a “mature” way?

http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2016/05/paper-market-manipulation-created-volatile-bottoming-pattern-metals.html