Cannuck Gold – welcome, man

Good to see your old bones here.

No need to check the Spock matrix – you cannot get in to see it until the new Spock site is up and running. There is no access to his historical work, unfortunately. From here on in you’ll have to pay to see it.

Just so you know!

Possible DOW Wolfe wave

Maybe a setup for a drop tomorrow ahead of the fed?

Wolfe wave

GDX & DUST Wolfe wave

Ok guys, here goes, just learning these formations but these look like classic set ups and one is inverse to the other which is the way it should be. If this plays out this could be a very nice trade, works out to be an 8.3% move in a bullish GDX Wolfe wave and 22% in a bearish DUST Wolfe wave which seems extreme but I am just giving you what I see. If you see something else, please step up and be heard. These look text book.

wolfe wave

wolfe wave

Wolfe Wave

I have been reading about Wolfe waves and thought I would post what I see, anyone that knows about Wolfe waves and sees something that doesn’t look right, please speak up. We all know about the massive HnS built out in crude over the last year, I marked out the Wolfe wave so we have a price objective to look for if this plays out.

Rules for Bullish WolfeWave Structure
Please note the odd sequence in counting, as you will see, it is necessary
for the inductive analysis. By starting with a top we are assured of
beginning our count on a new wave. (The reverse would apply for a
bearish wave.)
The 2 point is a top.
The 3 point is the bottom of the first
decline.
The 1 point is the bottom prior to point
2 (top), that 3 has surpassed.
The 4 point is the top of the rally after
point 3.
The 5 point is the bottom after point 4
and is likely to exceed the extended
trend line of 1 to 3. This is the entry point for a ride to the EPA line (1 to 4).
Estimated Price at Arrival (EPA) is trend line of 1 to 4 at apex of extended
trend line of 1 to 3 and extended trend line of 2 to 4.
Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) is apex of extended trend line of 1 to 3 and
2 to 4.

images[7]

Wolfe wave crude

Here is crude tonight, on a smaller scale we have a possible Wolfe wave in play right now, $38-$39

wolfe wave small

Cheers

Hi Cannuckgold

Long time my friend

Never mind Oasis

The action is all here

Check out the Spock Miners Matrix before getting back in

Linked under Sponsors on the sidebar

Fully

Hey – Cannuckgold here. Long time no see.

Anyone here frequent the goldtentoasis site?  I have tried registering many many times over the past few months and I never get the reply registration email.  Either they don’t want me or it is broken.  I have noticed there don’t seem to be a lot of new names around there.  If anyone knows what’s up let me know.

Life is mostly back on track and it’s been a while since being on any of these boards.  Looks like Gold may be getting to make a new run?  Do I dare start dipping the toes in again?

Hope all is well with everyone….

 

CG

LSG/TAHOE – Otto’s thoughts

What’s happening at LSG is a perfect example of how bad management can make even the best-drawn chart irrelevant by finding a way to unexpectedly screw the shareholder. (I like Cashcosts’s thoughts on focusing on management that cares about increasing shareholder value vs filling their own pockets. Experience has taught me there aren’t many of those on the VSE.)

From Otto’s Rant on the LSG/Tahoe deal (He’s clearly not a fan) :

“Lake Shore Gold (LSG) (LSG.to) management quickly fits into the Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to) corporate ethos.
By lying.
Here’s an except from the “Scotia Mid-Day Blast” that covered the THO/LSG conference call and other herbs (as we say down this way). Your cast of characters are
– “Craig Johnston”, who is Precious Metals Anal yst at Scotia.
– “LSG Management”, who are liars.”

More here: http://incakolanews.blogspot.ca/2016/02/lake-shore-gold-lsg-lsgto-management.html

Forks for Pancake Day. Gold @ $1201 stopped at top of 2014-2015-2016 wedge.

Well, I hope everyone enjoyed their pancakes on Shrove Tuesday! I had three and they were yummy.

Progress of the forks:

Shrove Tuesday pitchforks

Just looking to see if the median lines have been tested yet. Funnily enough, most of the median lines were revisited before the highs and lows were made (see circles).

The ellipses at right hand side show potential initial median line targets for grey and blue forks still in action to reach top rail of the forks These are $1220 and $1240. Interesting to see where it lands! Price looks to be capped at $1200 yesterday and today, with a slightly higher yesterday … is that slightly ominous?

Shrove Tuesday pitchforks circles

If there is a downside reversal from there, possible lows could be anywhere over $1260 for the grey fork and anything over $1280 for the blue fork without violating them to the downside.

Looking at more geometry: I was looking for the Wolfe Wave type moves, 12345 on purple wedge, which looked like a Wolfe wave but then went lower after hitting the median line of the grey fork, then 12345 on the red wedge, which looks less like a Wolfe wave because 1, 3,and 5 are exactly in line and there was no overshoot under the bottom line of the red wedge. I am not even going to begin to consider the Wolfe wave targets:

Shrove Tuesday pitchforks circles Wolfe wave lines ohohoh

Actually, I hadn’t noticed that the last 3 lows on gold were exactly in line (1,3,5 on the red wedge).

NOW,  look at where gold is at $1201, EXACTLY on the upper line of the purple wedge! Now that is interesting. Gold has  stopped exactly at the top of an old wedge starting from early 2014 which includes the early 2014 and early 2015 highs at 1393 and 1308, plus this current high at 1201! This might imply that the early 2016 high could be $1201 but the recent move looks different in geometry from the early 2014 and early 2015  up-moves.

 

 

 

 

 

Euro

euoro

I am taking a shot at EUO the 2X Euro bear…Euro has back tested the triangle and is up at range resistance

worth a shot

SPX backtesting

spx backtest 2-9

SPX backtesting the previous Neckline.

iwm can't get up 2-9

Meanwhile IWM just can’t get it up. ?Possible Bear Flag forming

SPX Today is critical

2hour spx 2-9

How the S&P reacts near the recent lows will be critical in determining whether we will push lower or make a short term bottom…

Watch UVXY Close…

Greece,the mother of western civilization!!! Probably this bear is even worse than Miners bear!

Schermata-2016-02-09-alle-16.49.43

Gold stocks – identifying the duds

There are a bunch of these still floating around. Potential problem gold and silver stocks. About 20 on my list of ones to avoid. Have a look at Rubicon Minerals and you will see what I talking about. RMX.TO now trading at 4c compared to $1.50 12 months ago.

Another potential wealth destroyer, is Continental Gold (CNL.TO). On the surface of it, and looking at its website and presentations, and also analyst reviews it looks fine. never trust an analyst as they have a vested interest and are therefore conflicted.

Continental main project, Buritica, PEA is based on measured and indicated resources, and not actual gold reserves, and will take more exploration work to “prove up” to reserves. There’s no guarantee that the company’s 4.5 million ounces of inferred gold resources even exist at all. This is what brought down Rubicon late last year, where their investment decision to build the mine was purely based on a PEA and inferred resource, not a bankable feasibility study, using proven and probable reserves. When they got into the mine, the resource was not there essentially.

And, of course, there’s significant financing risk with Continental, as it’ll take $390 million to get Buritica to production; as a gold developer, Continental has no cash flow from operations, and as of late 2015, had $33.2 million in cash, compared to $43 million in the previous quarter; the company burned through $17.96 million over the first nine months of 2015. There’s no guarantee it will be able to raise such a large capex spend, and will likely result in significant shareholder dilution.

Another negative: the company’s President and CEO is Ari Sussman, who is the former CEO of the train-wreck known as Colossus Minerals, which burned through its cash, went bankrupt and nearly took down streaming partner Sandstorm Gold with it in the process. Management’s track record is very important.

Bottom line: There are a bunch of potential duds around. Make sure you don’t buy one

The Most Important Chart on the Planet

The Star Spangled Banner Yet Waves

ssb

ES et c – UVXY have BO on the daily line chart

UVXY BO
http://goldtadise.com/?p=361827

Richmont still doing everything right… Richmont Increases Mineral Reserves by 187% and Island Gold Mine Increases Mineral Reserves by 206%, With a 29% Increase in Reserve Grade

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/richmont-increases-mineral-reserves-187-113000349.html

Richmont is doing everything right.  They basically have better ore in reserve now and have very conservative assumptions in the inputs to said reserve grades.  If one is long, this is just more confirmation of the story.

Some thoughts about the direction from here

Here is how I think it might play out from here in general.

At this point I think that the take below on the GOLD chart is the most compelling right now. And on the chart I have drawn how I see it play out. First down to EMA30 in a correction, and this pretty quick as GOLD went parabolic from 1050 to 1200. From there we get a second, powerful leg up – creating an inverse h&s on the way up for more energy – that touches circa 1350 / MA200. And around there and lower we then hang out for a while, forming the right shoulder of yet another inverse h&s.

With this move from GOLD we get the movement in HUI below; down to touch the neckline for the DB, forming a bull flag possibly, and then a similar move up, a second leg. And there we pause, forming a larger inverse h&s.
GOLD most relevant chart right now2HUI play out
SM will move inversely to the above as the SPX chart below shows, posted maybe a week ago, link below. The explanation for the SPX chart is in this previous post.
http://goldtadise.com/?p=361827
We now get a shorter bounce in SM while we get the shorter correction in GOLD/pm miners. After that, when GOLD/pm miners takes off for a second leg, the final, violent, deflationary phase comes alive for SM and COMM. SPX goes down as the chart shows in order to hit that apex. And sometime before it goes under that apex the CBs pulls out global, pretty synced, absolutely massive QE. This turns SM and COMM around and it is also the beginning of a SM parabola. This makes GOLD/pm miners correct. And some time after that, GOLD and USD rises together and also SM plus pm miners rises together, and this stops when SM has topped out with possibly a final blow off.
SPX black green blueWTI nya h&sn
Also, the chart below I had in a post recently, linked below.
http://goldtadise.com/?p=362135
It fits quite well with the described scenario above; a sharp correction for GOLD now makes the ratio BT the blue neckline, and from there the ratio just takes off as GOLD begins its second leg up to MA200 and WTI starts the final deflationary phase.
GOLD WTI
I am pretty sure that the pm miners have bottomed but less sure about GOLD. I think GOLD´s parabolic move the last weeks is because it is sniffing out the final deflationary phase, and also maybe a sign that it will not comply this time around. And the charts in the linked to post above shows that GOLD is bifurcating.

UPDATE:
I believe that when the final deflationary phase kickstarts, within circa a week probably, the global shift to safety will skyrocket and this should mean that the global demand for US treasuries (TLT etc) will skyrocket, leading to a massive demand for USD and this ought to take the USD higher, along with demand for the USD itself plus depreciation (currency war activities+crappy economies) of the EUR, GBP and probably also the YEN.

Also, I think that one thing that ought be in favour for GOLD having found its bottom is the supply situation. But let´s see.

Carolyn

http://stockcharts.com/symsearch/?!pmo

Runaway Moves – one example

RESOLUTE GOLD MINING LTD. ASX:RSG

I posted recently on this subject. Here is just one good example. Spock took a position in this at 24c in mid-January. There are many others in the portfolio and being monitored, which have similar characteristics. Also, there are many that have yet to run hard. But believe me, their turn is coming. Spock is the leopard stalking its prey.

We are entering a big wealth building generational event with the gold miners. Most cannot see it, and will look back in the coming years, and it will be just so obvious. The key is to understand whats occurring here and now, and to position accordingly in the right gold stocks. Most have no idea of whats coming or the potential profits to be made. In the next six months alone, big money will be made in this sector, on the long side.

The more bears that are around, the more comfortable I am that this runaway move has a lot more juice in it over the next 6 weeks, as they slowly capitulate, providing the fuel.

https://spockm.com/2016/02/06/spock-miners-matrix-newsflash/

RSG

In Trader Dan’s World

You don’t mess with the Japanese

You have been warned

http://traderdan.com/?p=9530

GSG Alert…

gsg
Initial thoughts were a false breakdown; however, now GSG has breached and making a backtest…
PMO has changed course…Another chart supporting Graddhy’s work…
gsgc

TGM.V Old story, Going production in 2016

Latest TGM mine will be in operation this year. This is 10 to 100 beggars. All you need is five six stocks like these in gold bull market.
————————————————————————————————————-

Article from June 2 2014.
“He’s brought that habit over to True Gold. When I first visited the project a year ago they were talking about producing some 70,000 ounces of gold a year. With the drill results they were reporting that were not included in the 43-101 it seemed obvious that they had a lot more ounces than they were reporting. I was right, they have updated their 43-101 and are now talking 97,000 ounces a year production over an 8.5 year mine life at a 43% IRR.”

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty060214.html

Latest News Releases:

http://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/component/stockinfomation/TGM.V.html

Deutsche Bank Price Target ~ $0

DB M

Fully please help us with Armstrong’s latest post

The talk about town is that gold can see more upside if rates decline. That seems to be at odds with the view that gold is a hedge against inflation since lower rates reflects more deflation. The confusion seems to really be just in the relationships. Gold is rising simply because the stock market has declined. Nevertheless, the key area remains $1208. We need to see this exceeded on a weekly closing basis to imply some sustainability short-term, but keep in mind this may be merely postponing the inevitable for the meltdown appears economically to be pushed off into 2017 moving into 2020. From a timing perspective, caution is advisable as we enter next week.

Credit Suisse Monthly H&S Pattern Price Target ~ $5.73

Bear in mind some of the ETN’s, e.g. UGAZ & DGAZ, are nothing more than “promises to pay” from Credit Suisse. If CS goes bankrupt, any ETN holdings that are “promises to pay” from CS, would be worth $0. 

CS D  CS MCS Q

This is my first and last (for the GT guys), warning on this subject.

INTEGRA

Anyone is aware of what is going on with ICG.V? , it lost 4.00% today with very high volumes in a positive day for miners.

$NATGAS & UNG Charts

NG D1  NG D2  NG W  UNG D1  UNG D2

Potential bullish gold pitchfork(s).

Here is the gold pitchfork I posted in a previous entry last week:

gold pitchfork 2016b 123456

With gold now at$ 1192.60 as of 20:53 Monday (evening, UK Greenwich Mean Time), the price is a lot nearer to that resistance line of $1210.

I thought late Sunday night that there was a good hit coming on gold, down $10 in the first minutes but that has been smashed to the upside today, to my surprise.

I noticed a few parallel and almost parallel slopes in an attempt to justify this pitchfork. At the weekend I drew a few more candidates but missed the shortest term one, which would have the median line starting at point 3 in the chart above. See below … the median line has been sliced through already:

gold pitchfork sliced bullish flush

Now there is one feature on the above pitchfork that Paul Coghlan would say (and I haven’t looked at his website) is bullish. In the orange ellipse, there is a the original low, a flush below that line and then a successful test of the line as support. He liens that sort of thing to a reverse head and shulders and furthermore, the close after the flush is on or above the line! I WISH I had noticed that before! The next re-test is clearly above the line and then up it goes!

Here are all of the pitchforks. Take your pick! No, your pitchfork! I am looking for other slopes on the price action that match the slopes of the forks. There were quite a few to match the thin blue one (top chart) but some that match the others. My faves are the big and small blue ones:

20160208 pitchforks gold x4

 

 

 

 

 

Spock Miner Matrix

Looks like Spock let the cat out in his post today .

Here is his new project announcement

The Miner Matrix has been tracking in “beta test mode”” from Jan 25th .

The Subscribe Button is not yet Active . Targeted Start up date is Feb 16 if all goes well .

Here is the “newsflash” Spock Posted Earlier

This Explains the What and the Why and the How of this exciting new website .

https://spockm.com/2016/02/06/spock-miners-matrix-newsflash/

While you are at the site have a look at the other sidebar posts for more information

We seriously almost lost Spock to the dark side (Private hedge Fund) .

I can attest to the veracity of this . This Roundtable has watched the development of this Matrix trading System

We have seen the great (50% in 9 months) result of the Global Matrix . Many have assisted in the selection of miners to screen.

Thanks to all here for your support

FGC for Spock)