Trader Dan’s World is the World of Commodities…Including the Cattle Market
Here is an amazing look into this interesting Market and a unique perspective for sure
Long TZA and Dusties,
Would anyone here subscribe to me? It is real time private tutoring of my signals.
I will share the set ups. I can help you get within one day of the tops and bottoms.
Donation basis, skype account required for real time chats. You can help me beta test the new site in dev.
Send your stock pick to me and I will send you the status for free
buy sell wait.
Email to AKtrader and the number 1 at g m a i l
JDST target areas… It could explode too?? Stops at break even always.
Armstrong’s Solutions Conference this Sat, Mar 28 from 11:30 – 3 pm EST. Live Streaming.
As 2015.75 approaches, MA is working on a bill to present to Congress, so that maybe the next time we enter a crisis they will do the right thing.
The conference will also cover updates on the Cycle of War and the Sovereign Debt Crisis.
If unable to watch live, you can watch the on line video version.
Should be very interesting and start a great discussion.
Original path breached…Back testing ED trend line…next stop 2019 once 2040 breached.
THE MARKET IS LOSING MOJO…
Signing off today’s post on the markets
“Traders – tread lightly and be ready to reverse in a moment’s notice.”
Your going to need to tighten up your tweaked indicators!!
poster at Trader Dan’s beehive
This is violent, short-term, chop–exactly as Dan describes it. It indicates algos in a Chinese Fire Drill, and any number of manipulations, big and small. Directional trades are suicidal, ESPECIALLY bottom/top picking, which are a sign of amateurish foolishness in the best of times.
Wait for things to settle down, and settle on a real direction/trend. This means NOT trading, but it does not mean getting frustrated and pissed-off and walking away from the markets in a huff. If you do that, you will miss the subtle, yet key, daily developments (or intraday) that will provide the next good trade.
Almost everyone is drawn to trading for the thrill of quick money. It is an almost purely EMOTIONAL. The sublime paradox is that one MUST master emotions to be successful! Success comes from cooly intellectualizing your market approach. Keep your head while all around you are losing theirs, as Rudyard Kipling said. This is also what Buffett means with his famous quote about being greedy when others are fearful, etc. Most people look at it too simplistically, like some simplistic definition of contrarianism. That’s why EVERYONE says they’re a contrarian–but
it just anit so
I don’t have access to the Rambo site, only watch the public side. FWIW, here’s a possible trade set up for JDST. This is only a trade set up with exits at break even once the first move and test comes. Just watching. I still think GDXs have a run still. Stomping feet for stopping out of JNUG from my 13.42 entry. Should have chased it but so it is.
Chartologists have had a great learning laboratory over the last 4 years to witness up close and personal a bear market. My lesson learned is I don’t want to play in them. Earning money on the downside is just too intense and hard. Better to just monitor from the sidelines and go find a bull to go long in. The time will come when it pays to enter long. In fact great family fortunes are made this way. The psychology is fascinating to observe. My premise is we are in the early stages of a bear market in oil. We are in Pre-POR phase II. So we watch investors speculate down the slope of hope that we are near a bottom. We have seen this process in the gold market since 2011. Interesting article here about US storage capacity. One can see that if it plays out as noted this could provide a downward impulse in the oil market. Maybe a POR of sorts?
Here is a longterm chart of oil and the XLE with a theretical projection of what may lie ahead. Of course I don’t have any pretense of how this actually plays out but consistant with My bear market phases this is the concept:
The gold bear market is the model for this advanced 3 years ahead
New trade positions for entry on Monday highlighted. Entry should be in the “morning” time window at market price as per the rules at the bottom of the table.
As noted in the matrix, this is not an intra-day trading model. The trade signals and positions are for extra-day trading.
This means trades are done in the morning based on yesterdays close Spock Scores , no need to watch the Markets tick by tick , No Intraday Decisions to make. Cautious Investors set a daily stop on positions based on
the last day’s “dot” on the PSAR .08 , .02 setting as shown in this GDX chart . The stop will carry your position out intraday in the case of a large enough move against your position . This tweaked PSAR gets you out sooner than the Standard .02 .02 PSAR.
Fridays PSAR .08 .02 value is 17.71 , so if you use this protection that’s your stop on a GDX position
This value rises daily with the price..so in effect is a trailing stop
So far during this test phase…most positions are not stopped intraday but are exited the next morning
via the Spock Matrix Indicators .
Trade long and short and prosper. Spock.
click 2X to enlarge
(Still under Development )
From Classact (aka Spock) at the Chartology Forum
Spock Matrix Trading Rules and Rationale
THE RULES ARE AS FOLLOWS AND SHOULD BE FOLLOWED RELIGIOUSLY (THIS IS GOD’S WORK!):
1. ENTRY AND EXIT: ENTER OR EXIT TRADE ON NEXT TRADE DAY “MORNING”, AFTER SPOCK CONFIRMS UPDATED TRADE POSITIONS AFTER THE MARKET CLOSE.
2. STOP LOSS: USE TRAILING STOP LOSS FOR ALL TRADES. USE TWEAKED DAILY PSAR (0.08, 0.2) AND UPDATE DAILY. THIS TWEAKED PSAR STOP LOSS IS DESIGNED TO PROTECT THE POSITION AGAINST INTRA-DAY REVERSALS, AND LIMIT LOSSES OR LOCK IN PROFITS IF AN INTRA-DAY EVENT TRIGGERS A SUDDEN PRICE REVERSAL.
3. FLAT: STAY IN CASH UNTIL ENTRY OR EXIT SIGNAL CONFIRMED BY SPOCK.
4. “MORNING” MEANS BETWEEN 10:00AM TO 10:30AM NEW YORK LOCAL TIME. ENTER OR EXIT IN THIS TIME WINDOW.
5. ENTRY AND EXIT PRICE IS AT THE BID/OFFER MARKET PRICE AT THE TIME OF ENTRY/EXIT WITHIN THE “MORNING” TIME WINDOW.
6. POSITION SIZE: THE MAXIMUM TRADE POSITION ALLOCATED TO ANY ONE ETF TRADE, SHOULD BE A MAXIMUM OF 20% OF THE TOTAL TRADING PORTFOLIO SIZE ALLOCATED TO SPOCK TRADING. FOR 3X LEVERAGED ETFS, THE MAXIMUM ALLOCATION SHOULD BE 10%.
7. LEVERAGED ETF SELECTION: THIS IS LEFT UP TO THE INDIVIDUAL TRADER, BASED ON INDIVIDUAL RISK PROFILE. HOWEVER, IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT MAX LEVERAGE OF 2X BE USED FOR SPOCK TRADES, AS SOME TRADES MAY RUN FOR WEEKS AT A TIME, AND 3X LEVERAGE ETFS CAN SUFFER FROM SIGNIFICANT TIME DECAY IN PRICE DURING LONGER PERIODS.
8. NOTE: SPOCK TRADE SIGNALS ARE UPDATED DAILY AFTER THE CLOSE, FOR EXTRA-DAY TRADING PURPOSES, NOT FOR INTRA-DAY TRADING PURPOSES.
The development of the Spock Matrix Trading System :
The goal was to develop a Mechanical Trading System (Matrix) based on a universe of tweaked and standard indicators applied to a wide variety of global market sectors across long term, medium term and short term time frames. The Spock Matrix is designed to take out all opinion and emotion, the two deadly sins of trading. Also it is designed for those who do not wish to or cannot monitor their positions intra-day . It is an extra-day trading system and the signals should not be used for intra-day trading. The Spock trade signals are updated after the close each day for action the next day, in the “morning” time window. The recommended time window for entry/exit is between 10:00 AM and 10:30 AM New York local time. The rules should be followed explicitly. Its a robotic process with no emotional thought involved.
The Spock Matrix covers most major global market sectors and industries, currencies, bonds, equities and commodities. So it covers the whole spectrum. Trading vehicles are the non-leveraged and leveraged ETFs based on these market sectors and industries. All the trading vehicles are traded on the New York exchanges, where there is good liquidity and depth.
I have spent 1000s of man-hours on this system to date, so I am unwilling to post the exact details on the forum, as we have no idea who reads the forum. There could be fund managers there, who just take away the details, and use it to manage a large fund. So the details should remain confidential.
A number of significant changes to the criteria, with weightings on 14 different indicators, and go/no go switches, over four different time periods, have been recently added. The system has been back tested. The results will speak for themselves over the medium to long term. Back testing has proven that the system works incredibly well, if the rules are followed. That’s the most important aspect. Follow the rules and the signals generated, religiously.
I have done significant back testing now on different instruments, and it was spot on every time, in getting in early on the big trends. For example, if we had it this time last year, we would have got in on the short oil trade fairly early and ridden it all the way down. It would have extracted 75% to 80% of the price move down. Now that would have been a ride to remember!
Anyway, lets prove its worth in the future, not the past. The next few months will be a critical test, given the increasing volatility . I invite only disciplined members to do the trades virtually via the contest platform
or if you wish (and with the disclaimer applying) in your real accounts.
To follow this system simply check the “Spock Matrix” link at the top of the Chartology Forum. It will be updated
before the open every day. Best of luck out there.
Spock (formerly Classact)
Trade Long (and Short) and Prosper
PS: Below is an example of the Spock output matrix updated after the close on Friday 13th march 2015. The trade signals shown would be acted upon on the next trade day, being Monday 16th March 2015, within the “morning” time window, as per the rules.
SPOCK TRADES 16 MAR 15
The Spock Matrix has been tweaked since this time
More sectors have been added and the formula has evolved
Many Forum Members are participating in the trials
Preliminary results from one member show many small losses ranging from
0% to 6% but mostly 3%
3% of a 20% PF position is less than a 1% loss…but there was one 36% gain which more than offset all the losses
Again very preliminary but there have ben no real trends in the test period of 2 weeks so far
I believe this system will be a winner
Getting traders in early and out early while letting the winners run
all with NO Emotion or decision making .
Yesterday Spock Followers had a Buy Silver Signal…those who took the trade in USLV were instantly rewarded
Even if it reverses Spock will have them out with nice profits .
The trials will begin in earnest April 1
We will keep Goldtent informed on the progress
Trade Long (and Short) and Prosper