“the bears could well be right about the gold price needing to put in one last low, but that not need necessarily mean that now is not the right time to be buying gold stocks.”
“Technical charts show a recognizable bottom for these shares at the end of last year. And they may now be so cheap that even in a big sell-off in stocks they will not become much cheaper.”
GDX has finished an EW a-b-c correction into a projected cycle low – looking for a bounce to start by Friday
The GDX has declined in an EW a-b-c correction into day’s cycle window defined by solar-lunar cycles. Looking for a bounce by Friday. NUGT gave us an Ermanometry buy signal early today.
BEAR TRAP?…GRINS DOLLAR CHART MAKES ME CAUTIOUS
However, RENKO daily and Matrix 7,4,7 has established a JDST trend; thus, this would be a counter trend trade. line leaves the green, 1st position; line breaches 50 2nd position. IF LINE DOES NOT BREACH 50; SELL 1st position. One can do very well after learning this “simple” concept…
Absolutely great charts on here, Fully, by a number of terrific chartists. I just sit back and watch. Waiting for that bottom in 2015.
He has become the go to guy
He has won the last 3 months trading contests
He is inspired
This young buck has learned Chartology to a degree I never thought possible in 2 short years
here is his latest
Sir Rambus identified March 2015 as a cycle bottom for gold at $890. It all adds up to March 2015 even for silver and even for the gdxj:gld ratio…. March 2015. Mark it on your calendar…
I composed this GDXJ:GLD ratio chart months ago… March 2015 coincides with the bottom rail of the giant expanding wedge exactly where the target of this halfway pattern would take it!
Thinking Way Ahead A B C Style
Just using the crosses can lead to great results…
This is not as “clean” as the GDX as expected…Did not have time to annotate.
Looks like it’s topping to me. One can see “the turn” just like on my 15 minute JDST chart…
Hi Eagle, would you please make a similar Renko chart for GDXJ? GDX Renko chart is a real money chart. Thanks. RJ
Knights and ladies it is time to get serious here
For a group operating in 3X PM ETFs maybe recommending caution is something destined to fall on deaf ears, but here goes anyways. We are in the middle of a mine field one should watch out. I don’t see the proper air of cautiousness out there for the risk that I see. The GDX has a 41% rally and many out there have gotten all lathered up and have thrown caution to the wind and jumped into this thing whole hog. Thats why I posted this last Thursday just off the highs:
Knights, we have had 3 prior BMRs so far and this is either the 4th or its a new bull market. We have matched the strongest BMR so far in this bear. The set up we are in did NOT appear to have the juice to keep running past whatever limited the prior 3 from continuing. Lets take a look at this daily chart:
If you go back and review my bear market anatomy series it shows the importance of the 25/50DMA relationship. If the 25 DMA remains under the 50 you can expect a severe pull back when the retracement off the lows begins. Guess what that is just what we got. About an 80% one. Once the rally resumed it hit the 200 DMA as if it was an I-beam. Then it had a short upside transit to suck in more lathered up bulls. In all it spent a grand total of 2 closes above the 200DMA…its below it now. Note also how late in the game the 25/50 DMA has finally crossed upside. The 50 DMA still remains under the 200 DMA and the 200 DMA is still slanting downward slightly. The price action must bend the 200 DMA upward before we can really start talking about a new bull market . So more basing action is needed. Bottom line is this is where we would expect this BMR to flame out given these series of indicators and for the BMR to be finished or we need to start doing some serious consolidation here before it resumes its upward move.
Next lets look at the weekly. Same chart as last weeks-just updated. In this bear market the weekly Stochastics have had a history of turning down immediately after exceeding 80. That’s rarified air, it does’t hang around up there. So when it starts bending over up there I would move my finger close to the sell button. Well take a look it has now exceeded 80 and just crossed over. Also the OBV and RSI is confirming this action. Don’t miss the lack of volume in the second advance of this move compared to the first advance off the lows on November. Its anemic, no wonder it torched out at the 200 DMA.
Now onto the four horseman. Note the interplay with the 200DMA on GDX and particularly GDM. GDXJ’s 200 DMA is still well above the price action. The tweekers have all crossed over, while the main indicators are at the cusp of a cross. Below is a view of my PWMI indicator which shows an M developing and the Renko painting its first red box. Both negative.
Now a strong day could put a different tint to these charts, but my point is this is a very bright flashing caution light for any who is long here.
Plungers take: OK knights, here comes the lecture. Now I understand ones trades are his only and this includes Rambus’. I am responsible for my own and I am NOT directing criticism towards anyone else’s trades, but I am going to say this: This is NOT the place to be buying thinly traded junior mining stocks for a trade or a flip… period. Anyone who is doing that I really think should do a self examination and ask oneself what am I trying to accomplish here. Knights, odds are we are still in a bear market. These stocks as trading vehicles are death in a bear market. Maybe we all should to go back and review when all the past 3 BMRs flamed out right here Sherlock ! Take a look at what happened next. Now I obviously am not saying we go straight down from here, we could go higher, but the number one rule in investing is Don’t Lose Money. You know the #2 rule….refer to number one. The big money is made in long term position holds. I own some juniors here, but not for trades. Use the liquid stocks if you are going to be trading the direction of the market. I have my buy list at the ready to buy and hold and I can’t wait for the day, but I don’t think it is here yet.
As trader’s here this is just an “exchange of ideas”; in this case formations, trend lines, etc. NO one, I mean no one can predict the movement of the squiggles. If I was that good, I would be living on my own island, instead of looking for “island reversal patterns” :-)…As Rambus once stated, “this game with leveraged ETFs is a double edged sword”. YOU HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION AND BE ON TOP OF YOUR GAME. Good Luck! Maximize gains, and MINIMIZE losses.
INDICATORS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH UPSIDE LEFT TO THIS RUN?
From Trader Dan’s Beehive Forum Posted by BobbyLivesMore
Norcini is a technical analyst, and it’s easy to understand why technical analysts do not want to address surreptitious trading and market intervention by central banks — why technical analysts loathe the very subject of gold market manipulation. For such trading and intervention by central banks and their agents would mean that there really is no market to analyze, that technical analysis in such circumstances is a delusion.
Of course no one can be expected to admit cheerfully that his life’s work has become obsolete. As a newspaper editor your secretary/treasurer feels this keenly, having spent most of his life in an occupation dependent on literacy and civic engagement, both of which are nearing obsolescence in the public mind in the United States.
But to call people “nitwits,” as Norcini does, for complaining about something as comprehensively documented as the destruction of free markets seems awfully presumptuous. If GATA ever persuades enough people of this market rigging and thereby helps to end it, restoring free markets, maybe someday technical analysis will become useful again.
thanks for providing that for us Bobby…
I actually like Chris Powell; he is a decent guy.
The problem I have with the GATA gang is not personal but their continued persistence in clinging to their theory of gold manipulation when the actual market analysis discredits it.
I used to write for these guys a while back and actually tried to be a forceful proponent of the gold price manipulation theory.
What was different back then and why I continue to marvel at their blockheaded claims that these “flash crashes” as they term sharp moves lower in gold, are the result of bullion bank/gold cartel orchestrated takedowns, is one huge factor. THE SOARING DOLLAR. Back when I was an advocate for GATA the US Dollar was sinking into the toilet and threatening the 72 level on the USDX chart. I believed then and still believe now,, that we did indeed have an orchestrated attempt by the Fed using the bullion banks as proxies to try to stem the rise in the price of gold because gold competes directly with the US Dollar. A soaring gold price alongside of a collapsing dollar signaled a loss of confidence in the Dollar, something that the Fed did not want.
However, with the Dollar rallying like it has been, there was no need to attack the gold price. Speculators simply were not interested in holding gold due to the costs associated with owning it in size. IF anything, the strong Dollar signaled the desire of global investors to own it ( the Dollar).
Then you throw in the fact that the commodity world was sinking, GLD outflows were surging higher as total reported holdings collapsed and the TIPs spread was falling… all of these signaled DEFLATION was the issue NOT A COLLAPSING DOLLAR as GATA was predicting. Eventually the truth has caught up with the gold conspiracy crowd in regards to the Dollar. Sadly they have not changed their tune.
I made no secret of the fact that something else was going to be needed to spark a sustained rally in the gold price because of the points mentioned above ((deflation, falling commodity prices, strong Dollar, soaring stock markets, weak TIPS spread, etc.)
That is occurring now as a backdrop as gold now resumes trading as a currency. That is evidence by its rising in terms of other currency majors.
We are also seeing renewed interest in the metal by speculators as evidenced by the inflows in GLD as well.
So what do we now have? A rising gold price.That is exactly what one would expect to see and it is exactly what we are now getting. The problem with GATA is that THEY EXPECT GOLD TO GO HIGHER ALL THE TIME REGARDLESS of fundamental factors and investor sentiment. That is why I used the term, “nitwits”.
For GATA , gold is always in a bull market, or at least it should be. That simplistic view simply caries no credibility with many of us who actually try to understand market/investor sentiment and trade/invest accordingly.
Maybe one day they will get it over there. Like I said, I like both Chris and Bill personally. It is too bad that they cannot be objective but then again, their organization needs to keep the gold conspiracy alive all the time or their reason for its existence would be obsolete .