There are many comments and emails from members there that they joined the site for this weekly reading .
Not sure why I didn’t have this on my radar before – the 200 and 50 ema’s on the monthly really put things into perspective. Almost seems impossible for gold not to retest $950. If that is the bottom, or when the ema’s begin providing support again, it would confirm this entire multi-year pullback is just a correction in a bigger context bull move to higher highs. The key is for them to provide support. Once the 200ema shows it can provide support, I will go long again as an investor.
However, using silver as a proxy along with it’s current behavior around the 200ema, it wouldn’t surprise me to see gold overshoot and head into the $700s before the correction is over.
before a larger correction in October-December…”If we take the minimum Primary V target of SPX 2214-2219 it is possible this bull market could complete during one uptrend and this year”…Another possible scenario.
I can’t believe how well this thing fits the recent move in crude. Kinda eerie. I didn’t massage it or anything, I just clicked on the low and clicked on the high and the lines appeared as they are here.
I can see how if one was to assign the brown line (.236) to the first level as it was being formed, the other projected levels would have provided a somewhat objective forecast of future price action. After the retest of the .5 level (confirming it) the top at 1.00 would have been a pretty likely price objective and earned a 30% gain with UWTI.
Traders zoom in to the daily hourly and minute charts to get an edge
BUT….we tend to forget the BIG PICTURE SOMETIMES
THESE 20 YEAR MONTHLY CHARTS SHOW SOME SHOULDA WOULDA COULDA MOVES THAT WILL KNOCK YOUR SOXS OFF
ONE MORE DAY IN THIS MONTH BUT THIS WILL DO .
BTK (Biotec) …..WOW…TOO LATE TO THE PARTY ? WHILE YOU WERE FOCUSED ON PMS IN 2009 !!!
XLF (FINANCIAL SECTOR)…METHINKS THIS WEEK WAS NOT JUST A FLASH !
XLE (ENERGY SECTOR) …TOPPED 1 YEAR AGO…LONG WAY DOWN
IYR (REAL ESTATE INDEX)…THEY ARE NOT MAKING ANY MORE LAND…STILL STRONG ?
GOLD ……ARE YOU SURE THE BOTTOMZ INN ?
XAU…….MAJOR GOLD MINERS…BUY AND HOLD !!! ?
The more I look at the action this week on the GDX across the BBands, the more I think that was the market “Tell”. I had remarked earlier this week that I’d never seen such a move before and I think we are going to learn just how significant that was. With a powerful move to the top of the BBand, there should have been at least a pause coming down at the midpoint, from a statistical standpoint…and more commonly a decent bounce. This time the bounce didn’t come until after prices dipped below what should have been a really solid bounce from a huge bull flag where huge volumes were traded. I cant find any other example of this type of move. Typically, that base should have been a springboard for at least a lame bounce. Now we find today’s close at resistance posed by both the top of the base and the Bband midpoint. This tells (or suggests to) me no new investment came in when priced dropped to the base this time, and in fact the price movement backtesting across the base is only being used so traders can get out even and bail, and every bit of market rise that backfilled the thin green gappy zone was dominated by short covering as opposed to new investment.
If prices do somehow close back above the base and Bband midpoint, then my analysis is totally wrong and traders are actually putting new money to work and prices should continue to rise, even if just bearishly.
Gold up days are so much weaker volume than down days.
Gold lost $26 this week and note the volume pattern:
GLD chart suggests bearish flag in a down channel in shorter term. Note bearish volume pattern.
NEM weekly….down 5.3% this week on monster volume. Looks at last several weeks volume spikes….all red.
Nice fork fits on gold…..wild guess but $1013 by Nov?
HUI down 8.3% this week. Wake me up when resistance starts becoming support!
GDX – this looks bullish? Prices finally managed to slip back inside the Bband today.
GDX weak relative to gold and showing bearish structure.
Lots of miners looking like this. very bearish structure.
This is a bullish weekly chart? Monster volume, down more than 7%
DUST has backfilled a thinly traded zone and is ready to move back up now.
Anyone who buys support and sells resistance would be selling GDX here.
Here’s what I think is going on now. We got the bounce I was expecting but I traded it miserably. Now I think we have a rejection at the lower rail….former support becoming resistance.
My current assessment in a few charts……
JDST may be bouncing off 20ema on the daily in the new uptrend:
JDST may be backtesting the breakout on the 30-minute chart for a 2nd time. Not unusual before a trending move up:
GDXJ may be making a bearish backtest on the broken channel:
Here is the Rambus chart for the Yen that seems to fit in with the Plunger’s theories on where we have been in the gold market, perhaps coming into phase III of the bear market.
As I understand it,the green circle is the transition from phase ii (consolidation) to phase iii.
If you look at what gold is doing right now, it is in the equivalent of the green circle (action in the Japanese yen from September 2014), just coming off the high that topped out about halfway up its trading channel. Uncannily similar in my naive view!
Of course, it depends where you draw the lower line of the consolidation but as with the Yen gold is tending to accelerate to the downside gradually during its consolidation and then fall through the bottom of the channel. I have tried an OHC daily chart and a weekly chart but it is a lottery.
Is Phase III for gold about to begin?
I am going to ‘quote’ the Rambus Yen chart below. Any objections and I can remove it if needed!
I think it is very important for stock market bulls that the DJIA not close below that lower trend line on Monday, the last day of August. Whatever kind of sentiment the market was feeling today needs to be maintained. Did Dudley’s comments today reassure the markets enough to stop the bleeding, or was this just a short term reaction?
Back Up the Truck ?
That is not a welcomed phrase here .
Too many people have been run over by the truck backing up
Please read this …Our mission statement and raison d’etre
The Perhaps PLUNGER’S FLUSH may interest you
All Opinions are welcomed here if they are TA Based
But Prepare to be debated
Bottom forming with new BPGDM at double bottom of Zero bulls. Translation = NO gold bulls left!
Beautiful chart GDXJ 2 million share downside action last 15 minutes today, may well spell “exhaustion”.
Nobody left except short sellers. Perfect base with panic sales sets up nicely for next leg up.
The street for PM shares is filled with bright red blood.
This is what I thought was going on and what I was trying to trade but the fact than no buyers were showing up when the S&P was rallying hard AND Gold was going up spoke volumes to me. Typically a nice risk/reward setup but something else extraordinary seems to be going on.
I’ve never seen action like this.
I’m looking for the 2nd drive down now on the HUI weekly:
Three drives down in progress I believe shown on the GDX daily:
Bigger picture JDST. I think touches to 20ema are great places to add. I’m still shocked we didn’t get one of those opps today!
I expected red circle to be massive resistance but now I suspect it may be new support since it sliced through it.
DUST defeated resistance today. I never bet on that happening but respect it and trade on it when it does.