What is Goldtent TA Paradise?
Pure Plunger (HOT!)
Not my work, but that of Sam .. same gent I reference in the post with my long term EW for gold.
Lots of folks looking for something quite different. But this is entirely in line with what my own work suggests.
For those who don’t read EW, that’s a nested PAIR of waves 1 and 2. (The first red wave 1 at higher degree is not shown.) That implies a quite nasty wave 3 as it will likely catch many offside. Mark has/had a target of 40 for DUST, and this suggests we get there. Just not straight there.
From Rambus Chartology
My GDX “working chart” that I use to track structure suggests what looks closer to an H&S pattern than anything else. Watch the neckline. My “air support” got filled as expected.
Meanwhile the GDXJ looks like it may have broken support at the open today and closed at a backtest. Next week should add clarity. JDST charts looks very bullish….much more so than DUST.
OK we are off 90%… may as well hold…what could go wrong ?
Oh No BoPo
Gold’s next stop still $2000 now that Gold broke through $1240 on September 11, 2014?
In response to many recent emails and comments, let’s look at Gold’s last 3 cycle lows to possibly get some insight:
1.In June 2013 Gold made THE Cycle Bottom at $1178, cycle analysis called this bottom within 2-hour, and at that time internet Gold bashers were all screaming $1000 Gold next; it never came as Gold’s next cycle was up, not down, causing Gold to rebounded as forecast making a $1434 top in August 2013.
2.In December 2013 Gold made a higher degree low at $1181 and again the Gold bashers were screaming $1000 Gold next; it never came as Gold’s next cycle was up, not down, causing Gold to rebounded as forecast making a $1392 high in March 2014.
3.In June 2014 Gold again made another higher degree low at $1240 and once again the Gold bashers were hard at work screaming $1000 Gold next; it never came as Gold’s next cycle was up, not down, causing Gold to rebounded as forecast making a $1346 high in July 2014.
4.Now on September 12, 2014 Gold dropped below the June 2014 low at $1240 and again the Gold bashers are, as expected, still screaming $1000 Gold; and again it will never come!
In a May 14, 2014 New York Kitco Interview and forecast (click here to view), cycle analysis indicated Gold was expected to rise in May/June and make a Top in June, then drop down in price making a Final Summer Low and in conclusion Spike and reach $2000 before year end. The May 2014 Interview stated a ‘Final Summer Low’ would be a final entry point.
Summer is NOT officially over and a break of $1240 changes nothing in a cycle! Cycle analysis gives price direction, NOT exact price. Price is derived by calculations using a Fibonacci scale and a break of $1240 Gold is nothing but a break of a Fibonacci price support line NOT Gold’s 21-year cycle. So stating… ‘The historic Gold cycle dictates an end of summer 2014 low MUST remain ABOVE the June 2014 low at $1240’ was an overzealous statement and mistake on my end and nothing more. A Fibonacci support line break does NOT constitute breaking Gold’s 21-year cycle!
So, is Gold’s next stop still $2000? Yes. Will Gold ever see the $1180 lows? Absolutely NOT!
The Gold bulls will talk up the usual “strong physical demand from Asia” story but the fact is that gold demand from Asia always picks up when prices fall lower as those buyers are price conscious. That however CANNOT MAKE UP for the LACK OF WESTERN-BASED INVESTMENT DEMAND which has plagued this market for a long, long time. The falling reported inventory in GLD is all the evidence one needs ( not to mention the abysmal showing of perhaps the worst sector of all time, namely the gold mining shares) to understand that is in the West, investors simply do not see any need to tie up excess capital in gold at this time.
The flattening yield curve, sinking commodity indices and lack of perceived inflation concerns, along with King Dollar returning, has made holding gold a losing proposition and thus it is going to take something else to shift Western sentiment towards the metal. All claims by the gold cult that the price is being “manipulated lower” are simply rubbish. It is going lower because the fundamentals do not support higher prices at this time.
While they console themselves with the foolish propaganda delivered by their various “gurus” and “prophets” about “standing firm in the midst of everyone else losing faith”, their net worth is declining even further. Having foolishly become “married” to this asset class, they are now at the point where divorce will cost them so much of what is left of their original net worth, most are now sadly reduced to holding on in the hope that somehow, someway, they can recover even a fraction of what they have lost by heeding the “false gospel of gold”.
I have nothing but sympathy for many of these “victims”. What I do not have sympathy for and instead feel nothing but disdain and contempt for, is those who misled them, many of whom have profited off of their misery by peddling them worthless rags of a newsletter and websites that make a mockery of the word, “analysis”. There was nothing remotely resembling “analysis” in those useless collections of drivel. What there was instead was a one-sided, completely SUBJECTIVE reading of a market which deliberately ignored the voice of the price charts and the opinion of the broader market. Elevating themselves above the collective judgment of the market, many of these self-appointed “gold gurus” uttered their pronouncements about the future direction of the price of gold as if they had descended from Mt. Olympus themselves for the sole purpose of blessing the uninformed and enlightening them. The raw and unabashed hubris of these is astonishing for its sheer brazenness. Like a biblical plague of locusts, they found a beautiful, lush Garden of Eden before them and left it a barren and desolate wilderness behind them.
I never posted my gold bear market chart with the $780 target, not even on my own blog, so here it is. I cannot update this because I no longer use this particular charting service.
I regarded the $730 high in 2006, the $1030 high in 2008 and especially the $680 low in late 2008 as key points to try to draw median lines of some kind. I noticed a pattern where the impulsive move up to $1920 in 2011 is a larger version of the impulsive move to $1030 from 2008. On that score there is a possible target of $780 for gold, depending on the time-frame, since the target line is sloping.
My estimate of the date for this low was perhaps in 2015 and here we are. I wonder if we will get there? This chart was drawn in early 2014 and was not meant to be scientific, just visual:
or with circles:
Bottoming Sequence timing:
1. PM miners end 2015 (similar to end 2000)…miners advanced PRIOR to gold bottom
2. Gold end 1Q 2016 (similar to 2001)…by end 2001 miners had doubled in price
3. Commodity cycle bottom end 2Q 2016 (similar to 1986)
Commodity cycle last major bottom mid 1986….30 years ago
$HUI last major bottom Nov 2000….15 years ago….half a major cycle
Is the Consolidation Pattern FINALLY Done ?
Will this turn out to be what Rambus has been Expecting
Will we look back and say…well that was obvious ?
Will there be an 8 on this chart at 1200 ?
Code Red for Gold right here
We are below the 50 % retrace of the whole bull move
If we break down out of this pattern the PO is 700 !
In a hurry
How many times have we thought we were in a real impulse move !
Well..the last Real Impulse Move was from 1800 to 1300 back in 2012-2013
30 months ! Enough ?
We analyze the crap out of this market ..but when push comes to shove this Monthly chart is all that matters
From one of my posts at Rambuses forum yesterday
Not an expert on diamond patterns but it looks like pm miners now are about to fall out of bed. And with gold hoovering 1071, the EUR close to punching through the candle neckline of its massive h&s and therefore the USD close to punching through 100,40-50, and WTI BT its small h&s with an open road down plus copper already on the move etc etc, I think this could be it for COMM. Or at least we are very close to the tipping point here.
Was noticing some very interesting volume activity today in UGAZ; 11:20am and volume is already at an all-time high of 54MM shares ahead of the NG storage report at noon. I’ve been looking at this chart for a while thinking “Now this is what a capitulation bottom looks like!”. These volume spikes on little price movement are often very telling. I like the gap down bullish flag on monster volume.
I know many are looking to buy miners now but I think it’s premature, at least based on what I’m seeing in the charts right now. On the daily the 13ema is still firmly in charge as resistance, and I think we have another instance where a bearish flag has broken down and is backtesting in a weak consolidation structure. I suspect this consolidation is a prelude to the next hard leg down which could start any day now. Wouldn’t you rather see the 13ema become support before making bullish bets?….otherwise I think longs are trying to swim upstream.
Adding a chart at 12:40pm – showing some GDX vulnerability here. GLD gap fill, GDX thin zone fill and both looking to move down more while S&P moves sideways to up.
The EUR is forming a small falling wedge very near the candle neckline for the massive h&s. It has broken out of the h&s on a line chart as you can see here but not yet on a candle chart (not shown).
I think it is gathering energy here now in order to punch through that candle neckline for the h&s, which is set around 104,60. When it does that, I think the USD will break out above 100,40-50. As I have suggested many times, the EUR is driving the USD and not the other way around. The USD just happens to be on the other side of the USD index when the EUR now very soon starts its final collapse.
One interesting thought one can have is to think about what happens to the USD and the USD index if the EUR blows up as I think it will if it comes close to its PO for that huge h&s. Then the USD index will be history I guess in its present form.
I have now bought my first tranche of EUO. Yeah, I know, we do not have full confirmation yet as it has “only” cleared the line and not the candle neckline. But hey, look at that h&s and all other stuff that is going on…
I think this is a bearish falling wedge, i.e. it might not bounce, and if it does, I am fine with that and will then just buy my second tranche on the top of that bounce.