Goldtent TA Paradise

My view of the dollar…

CHF/USD ratio behaving perfectly. We’re just about to get started.

It’s simple. The gold chart is showing a massive breakout and perfect, successful backtest.

Once $1400 is breached later this year, things will accelerate quickly in my view.

You know it, I know it, Wall Street knows it, the Fed knows it. This is the beginning of the end for rate hikes, and the end of the beginning for the PM rally to come.

We’ve seen a huge 5 year basing pattern in PMs and the charts below are telling us in no uncertain terms – gold knows what is coming and, so does the sickly looking dollar.  The fed has nowhere left to turn and markets are beginning to figure it out. 2019 is going to be fun.

Nothing’s changed. So far, so good. I’m not going to get too excited until we break through the former long term support (now resistance somewhere near $1350, and, just as importantly, the horizontal resistance zone around $1400. Then I will be excited. Very very excited.

I really hope not…

Gold has broken out…

Longer term view of gold, putting the very important downtrend breakout and rounded base together…

Maybe, just maybe…

Another way of looking at the silver price action. I believe this is all part of a bottoming process at the major cyclical low, and that we will break back into that wedge formation, and ultimately up and out of it. It goes without saying though – any move below approximately $14, below the lower support would be bad. Very bad.

Those indicators look ideally poised for a big run up to me. I could be wrong though.

I’m on record as saying the dollar is toast https://goldtadise.com/?p=421165

I stand by that, and it’s just possible the next downturn is at hand…

Here’s why…

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-21/futures-jump-dollar-slides-after-report-fed-may-end-hikes-early-spring

Boring, boring, boring. Still 3 obvious scenarios. Take your pick…

Or whatever it is… I’m assuming that was a load of bull then ? Nothing seems to have happened.

Simple chart…

Some impressive moves in the Uranium sector recently, but I’m not going to get too excited until we see a more definite breakout, It’s possible we could get turned back down at the bottom of the triangle. Fundamentals are good and the price of Uranium itself is finally rising in response to increased global demand (and anticipated future demand) and reduced mine supply. Moves in this sector are rapid and violent – hundreds or thousands of percent in a few months, making it possible to turn $1000 into $10000, $20000 or even $50000. If this takes off again it could be quite a ride.

Some enormous gains now (up 16% today, at the time of writing). I managed to get into EFR at a share price of around $2 (CAD), which is around a 150% move so far. I’d expect 1000% in the next 6 months if this is the real deal Uranium bull awakening. Here’s a chart that shows how much and how fast this sector can move…

A flame out is possible I guess, but the fundamentals are looking very good. I’m holding on tight…

Edit: Mega Uranium up 21% today

https://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com/2018/11/01/silver-bottoming-almost-complete/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

But only just…

Megaphone failure goes like this (from elliotwavetrader)…

And this is how the dollar chart looks at the moment…

Things that make you go hmmmm

GSR is just one indicator that’s telling us this could be a favourable time to buy PM’s. Given where the ratio is, silver is great value. Could the ratio go higher ? Yes, but risk/reward is strongly in our favour here. Primarily an indicator for when to rotate from gold to silver and vice versa. The first chart shows the buy signals on the GSR chart. The second one overlays those signals onto a gold price chart. I thought it was fairly interesting, and another thing to consider.

Possibly one of the few. Gold has broken through the downtrend on the log chart…

In my view, the dollar is going down. Way down…

The HUI has interesting chartology…

with the CHF/USD ratio still predicting an imminent PM turnaround…

So despite all the negative sentiment expressed recently, I just don’t buy it. All I know is what these long term charts are telling me. I believe the odds are strongly in favour of this being a major buying opportunity. HUI downside looks to be maybe around 130. The upside ? well, can that chart really be saying the target is 1400+ ? Stranger things have happened.

https://www.rt.com/business/442410-gold-demand-up-dollar/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Something like this…

Would be my current thinking.

And had a successful backtest…

Maybe we’re over-thinking this.