Loading ...Gold – A Bounce Is Due
We seem to be in the timing band for a move upwards…
There are 3 possibilities. Stating the obvious – up, down and sideways. The difference here is that we’ll soon be able to start ruling out some scenarios. In the next 6 months we’ll know if the ‘years of grinding, range-bound, sideways action’ is still a possibility. A sharp move up or down could happen anytime in the next 6 months of course, answering all our questions. To my mind, a large move is more likely than not. Bollinger bands are pinched tighter than a camels butt hole in a sandstorm. That usually points to an imminent move.
Here’s a look at what’s happened in the past when Bollinger Band Width has been very low (Note just how low it is now, and how long it’s been this low)…
Thank you. The time hopefully is near that we have waited for
I hope so too Mserr. It’s been a frustrating few months.
Looks an important decision time. 13 1/2 cycle low due in July according to McClellan market letter. This clearly fits with post of several authors here showing extreme sentiment. I believe reaction in silver can even be more explosive than gold.
It’s quite possible silver could move 30 to 50% in 6 to 12 months
Historically silver has moved substantially in short periods of time like anything between 50% (2016) to 76% (2003), 123% (2005) and 182% (2010), so anything is possible, although there is still quite some resistance at 25/27 and 30/33 levels I believe.
Thanks Northstar. You are always a good read.
Cheers MM 🙂
We are in the timing band for a move Northstar.
Gold is in week 24 while the USD is in week 15 of their respective weekly cycles which often last around 26 weeks.
So the day is fast approaching that I have spoken about several times when the USD peaks in it’s weekly cycle and gold hosts a weekly cycle low.
That will leave around 10+ weeks of a declining USD and advancing price of gold.
Plus the second weekly cycle out of the YCL is often much weaker than the first so there should be some good headwind behind gold through to early next year.
Now down to the nitty-gritty!
There is a bit of a disagreement amongst the cycle analyst about the current daily count of the USD.
I think it has just had a half cycle correction and will host a DCH (daily cycle high) between 26-29 calendar days from 14 May = 09-12 Jun although the FOMC meeting is on 13 Jun
The AUD is in week 25 of a left translated failed cycle and in the timing band to host an ICL.
The last DCL was 09 May and I would ot expect the AUD to hosts an ICL until at least calendar day 29-34 = 07-12 Jun
The CHF hosted an ICL on 10 May and appears to be forming a right translated daily cycle despite the rising USD so I would expect it to host a HCH (half cycle high) soon awhile the USD advances.
I think it is smart for members to select one of their favourite miners and study the cycles very closely. Mine is NST.AX a mid tier Australian miner that I purchased back in early 2015. It normally cycles 68-72 calendar days low-low and is a very good marker for gold’s important turn dates.
The last DCL was 04 Apr therefore I am expecting the next DCL around 11-15 Jun
The current daily cycle has failed but remains right translated, having hosted a DCH (daily cycle high) on calendar day 37
Hope this helps.
Thanks for that Norvast. It’s good when independent analysis comes to a similar conclusion.
First to admit I was wrong that the low was in…HOWEVER I am still pretty sure the low comes soon, plus to throw people off it could actually be PRE FOMC (we get gyrations but the low will hold) like we have had before…now I am still adamant we are in C wave down of a larger correction from
1366. If so the most recent low was merely the end of the 3rd wave. Everything else has been 4th wave noise and we began the descent again this past week. Taking wave 1 and 5 to be equal (of wave C) would give us 1365-1332 a 32 dollar wave. From 1307 that would bring us to 1274 – which is a 70% fib retracement of the move from
1230 area.
That’s enough wave work what about chartology? I find looking at a chart is the best way, but change the angle. Look at it from the side or upside down and then say how would this look otherwise. Looking upside down it seems as a few months was spent building a shoulder, this looks like a head portion building out but answer me this: when does a bottom ever look nice? When does a bottom ever look like a buying opportunity? That’s why they are bottoms because everyone sells into them till there are no more sellers just bargain shop buyers. 1274 I’ll be a buyer.
Also: connecting the lows in Feb and early March gives a nice trendline Which was recently tagged. I expect a FBO under this and a reversal back into the pattern however we shouldn’t get a close below there for the week. Just my opinion based K where we are atm!
Thanks Waz. Unless we’re about to see a PM collapse with very important, long term support broken, downside is VERY limited here.