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Here are a couple of Excerpts from Rambus Weekend Report….Every Goldophile should consider subscribing to navigate this beast … because Truly he is the best of the best Gold TA Analysts on the Planet
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GOLD
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HUI ( BIG CAP GOLD STOCKS )
I know the 2600 area sometime in early 2030 may seem like a bit of a stretch on the monthly chart above for the HUI, but we’ve been following this quarterly chart for gold since the last touch of the bottom trendline, which has been playing out beautifully so far, as shown by the long black arrows. As more chartology becomes available to us, we should be able to tweak the eventual high for the secular bull market.
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US DOLLAR
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COMBO CHART….WOAH !
Next is the long-term monthly triple combo chart we’ve been following very closely recently, which shows the major reversal points on the US dollar and how they line up with the major reversal points in gold and the HUI, as shown by the black vertical dashed lines. The most recent important reversal point was the 2022 high on the US dollar and 2022 low on gold and the HUI. I can now add the breakout (BO) symbol to the bottom of the 2022 rectangle consolidation pattern.
AS J C WOULD SAY
………..”SO”………
Yikes ! Good thing I was on the crapper. Nicey charts, thnx GFC
This from Martin Armstrong, for what it’s worth. “Our concern here is that we may have a cycle inversion, meaning we could be forming an April high instead of a low. That would imply a high at the $3500 level the week of April 21, with a two-week pullback into the first week of May, where I have been greatly concerned about the prospect of war or some false flag by mid-May.” He thinks gold is going to $5,000 but that 2 week pullback into the first week in May may be an ideal time to buy. I sold most everything today for a tidy profit and am going to wait until that first week in May to buy back. Just a thought. We’ll know soon after this week. If Newmont goes to $52 I’m getting that and GDX, maybe buy back into Hecla as well. Bought at near the crash low. recently. Good luck Sir Fully. It’s been a wild, mostly horrible ride, but things seem to be looking up in the gold world as everything else goes to hell.
Thanks for sharing this MJ.
I’d agree with you, were it not for 1) the barely retraced performance of GDX at $39.23 in Feb – ie >> it didn’t let many people in – I, and many others were looking for a $38 handle, then 2) the April whipsaw, who saw that coming? I’m unwilling to make a personal call regarding a top and take some off the table, much less ‘almost everything’. I would admit that trading in and out during the 2024 run was successful (sold all the highs and bought most of the lows) but all-in-all I underperformed the rise in GDX by around 10% – buy and hold would have been a better strategy (I can’t afford to trade the minors).
FWIW, if GDX closes above $43, my chart targets indicate GDX peaking in the $44.85 to $45 range – I don’t have ANY technical target above that point going back before 2011. The reason I WON’T SELL at that point is because I’m not confident in the second part of the strategy – when to re-enter – that’s been the pitfall as of late and just going to ride the coaster.
Evidence:
Presently, the 100 year Dow/Gold ratio is in freefall month-over-month (look at macrotrends chart posted earlier and observe the 5yr to decades-long downward trends against stocks). I’ve not the stomach for the ins and outs during this phase.
All respect to Martin Armstrong and I hope your thesis is successful but as CM says – “it’s different this time” esp. (I’d add) with Gold’s solid breakout against the 60/40 portfolio – the POR for SECTOR ROTATION is in play.
Scenarios:
A) I’d also say that SILVER underperformance (GSR) is setting up for a slingshot upward (and I’d guess the miners (minors) may follow).
B) The other scenario is where Gold falls/retraces and Silver holds steady (reducing an stretched GSR). Take a look at what silver did during the 1973-1974 brief market outperformance against gold – Gold fell and Silver held steady.
C) The last scenario would be where Gold falls and silver capitulates even moreso (GSR up to 110 and beyond) – this would indicate a strong BEARISH signal for the PM’s and possible consolidation for at least a year (I wouldn’t declare the bull over though).
Best of luck MJ, please keep us posted on more specific targets/actions during the anticipated dip.
Since Armstrong thinks everything will start moving up in May, to stay put makes sense. My problem is that for the first time in a while I had profits in GDX, HL, GLD. GLD did especially well. I’m debating about the SIVR I have, but that also did well since I bought it at $26. I might let it ride. I’d rather play catch up this time around than see the profits I had lost as has happened most of the time. It feels good to to get in and out, something I don’t normally do and that is why I lost so much. I rode everything down. Good luck.
Sir MarcusJames – watch this technical presentation from Gareth Soloway go the the 10:44 mark. There is some big support for your get-out-now thesis.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EM4IpD99dXs
Personally I agree that it IS a sell point however, I have no idea how deep or shallow the pullback may be or how long it’ll last so not going to play that game. Good Luck !
By the way, Armstrong thinks to dollar will consolidate then go back up as geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and Europe will send capital inflows into the dollar. Gold will rise and the dollar will rise together mainly because of coming war. Europe is toast.
Would love to see Gold and USD rise together
Fundamentally i cant understand how the USD could deteriorate to Rambus targets when that means the Euro et all soar
BUT hard to discount Rambus Charts and we are seeing a breakdown from a large pattern
sheesh
I think a factor like war could upset even the best charting. It’s an unknown and I wouldn’t put it past the leaders in Europe to come up with a horrific false flag blaming it on Russia to kick things into high gear, and Europe, in all its glorious stupidity, decides to declare war on Russia and sends troops into Ukraine. The utter insanity of that is hard to comprehend. Dear God, save us form the imbeciles. If that were to occur, capitol flows would go into our markets, the dollar and gold as the only safe havens. Armstrong suggests focusing on American companies and American miners during the post correction phase in May as he expects a false flag mid May to kick off the war. Lots of turmoil is coming in countries other than the United States, though we’ll have our own warmongers clamoring to push Trump into war.
Thought it’d be appropriate to quote a couple legends at this time…..
Riverside Resources…. Mr Partridge says…. “It’s a bull market ya know”
08/12/2020 Plunger
https://goldtadise.com/?p=472961