Goldtent TA Paradise

I’ve marked 4 fairly simple resistance lines on the HUI chart. Worth keeping an eye on. If gold continues much further, we could see a surge in the miners (maybe 10% in a couple of days).

Up 37% today

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lico-energy-metals—-intersects-numerous-commercial-grade-cobalt-zones-at-teledyne-cobalt-property-similar-to-previously-released-results-from-its-glencore-bucke-cobalt-property-300576829.html

Just thought I’d share a few simple price charts. These are Uranium stocks I got into a few months ago. The worst performing (Energy Fuels) is up 12%, and the best (Uranium Energy) is up 78%. Most have barely even see a blip on the long term chart. It’s a risky sector, but the risk/reward looks pretty good to me at this point.

I posted it last Summer…

I also posted this…

along with this…

all of which led me to speculate with this chart…

I believe all of these charts are still relevant, and I’ve just taken another ‘big picture’ look at where we’re heading. I’m very much on the same page as Spock, Graddhy, Surf etc, who are proponents of cycle theory. This is what I’m seeing…

The numbers do look far-fetched at this point. I’m less confident about specific numbers/targets than the fact that we are going to see large/very large gains in the next 7 or 8 years. We’re short term overbought on many of the indicators right now and a healthy pullback can be expected sometime in the next few days. Long term chartology seems very clear to me though, and unless important support lines fail, I have no reason to doubt the thesis that we have a very large cyclical bull ahead of us, peaking sometime in the 2025-2026 timeframe.

Even to those who have been doubting it. We’re right at the point now, where gold and the US Dollar are about to cross a very important line in the sand, at exactly the same time.

First the log chart of gold. A clear breakout above $1300 in the current (upward trending) portion of the gold cycle is hugely significant…

Secondly, the dollar is now past it cycle highs and is on a long term cyclical downtrend. My personal view is that it will fall to between 60 and 70 as the cycle bottoms. Shorter term, the target is around 80…

2018 is going to be a lot more ‘fun’ than 2017 was. Many other commodity sectors are going to see increasing inflationary effects too. The uranium miners are up 30-60% since I read Graddhys posts a while back, then did my own research and took a position. On a long term view they have still hardly got going. I know they’re volatile, but risk/reward looks favourable to me at this point. The world doesn’t seem prepared for what’s coming. So much debt and so many bubbles everywhere you look.

Well, it’s looking increasingly likely that the PM complex has made it’s December low. I must admit, I was expecting $1200-$1220, but we got the timing right (it seems). So where to now ? I’ll be posting my thoughts in the New Year, as we start to see things developing. In summary though, I’m on board with the dollar bears and commodity bulls now. As Graddhy has very cleverly spotted and pointed out, we may well see the stock market and assets generally continuing to rise sharply in their blow off phase, with the PM’s sniffing out the coming mess and rising as well. I believe the smart money will be taking positions in commodities (the upside for Uranium miners for example, is quite impressive). Cryptos ? damned if I know, but I have a small position just for the hell of it, which has now brought a 1200% profit in 6 months.

I’d like to leave you with a gold chart. Once we clear the $1295-$1300 region, things will get interesting. You might remember my initial target is $1500-$1550 in the next few months.

Wishing you all a happy Christmas (for those that celebrate it), and a peaceful 2018, NS.

I bought £50 worth each of Bitcoin, Litecoin and Etherium back in the Summer. I sold the Bitcoin at $18000 with a 600% profit giving me  £330 on my original £50 investment. I felt it was a huge bubble and wanted to test the process of getting it back as ‘cash’ in my bank account. It all worked fine. I decided to let the total £100 Litecoin and Etherium investment continue. Litecoin gas gone up 101% today (at time of writing), 267% this week, 518% in the last month, and 9608% in the last year. THIS IS BATSHIT CRAZY. My £100 Is  £1000 already. WTF is going on ???

In response to Kens request…

The thing here is that in a dollar bull market you can draw a conclusion that doesn’t apply in a dollar bear market.

In response to Kens post below, here’s an alternative view…

Hello again fellow Tenters. You might remember this. I posted it a while back now ( mid September)…

Well, shit got real, as they say. This is how it’s panning out…

All looking good to me (but I am hiding behind the couch and peeking at the screen between my crossed fingers)

Meanwhile, buttcoin to infinity 😉

It looks like a plunge to $1200 gold is certainly a possibility. That would take us back to test the breakout at the apex – see my chart on the right sidebar. I strongly believe we’re going to see a great year for gold and silver in 2018, but we may have to endure more short term pain as PMs and PM stocks drop hard into year end.

There’s quite a debate going on. Bull or bear ? Here’s a recap of some of the charts I’ve posted in the last year or so. I think they’re all still very relevant.  Everything from the dollar to the SGR and CHF. Patterns, targets, cycles. Make of it what you will…

If that is indeed one enormous bullish pennant, 2018 is going to bring us some real fireworks. The bear case takes us to less than $1000, but I just can’t see how that’s going to be possible when you take the cycle timing into account. Surely that’s the big clue that this thing is going to explode upwards, rather than collapse into a smoldering pile of donkey dung. Fully is our donkey expert though.

Downside on this chart appears to be about $60 (assuming that rising support line holds). Upside is $200 + in the relatively short term. A correction should follow an initial move to the $1500-$1550 area, before we head higher again. I could be wrong of course, but that is what the chart looks like to me at this point. We could begin to move higher anytime I guess, but timings look to suggest further weakness into December. The similarities with 2007-2009 are too striking to ignore. Here’s the chart…

Apologies for going ‘AWOL’. Tough times at the moment, and it certainly puts everything in perspective. Anyway, one of my last posts in September included this chart…

Having been just an observer on this site for a few weeks, it’s good to have a few minutes to be able to update it…

If I had more time, I’d add more supporting evidence (cycles, indicators etc), but suffice to say that it still looks like a bumpy ride into year end for gold and silver. Of course, it’s possible we don’t go quite that low, but the chart does suggest it’s likely. As many have noted the commodity sector is hotting up. Base metals breaking out, rare earths are stirring and uranium is following Graddhys script very nicely. Bottom line is that inflation is set to move into these sectors more convincingly over the coming months and years. The SM blow off phase looks to be underway with a smaller and smaller number of ‘big names’ blasting higher, whilst most are already showing weakness. It’s so well anticipated that when it happens, the rush for the exits will see a big move into undervalued sectors and traditional safe havens. 2018 looks set to be a big year for us. I may be mostly absent for a few more weeks, but I’ll be keeping tabs on everyones amazing posts with interest.

Here’s my take on the COT position…

And the gold price…

Following Fullys earlier GDXJ chart, which appears to show a possible breach of support, I thought I’d have a closer look. On a shortish time frame, linear chart, it doesn’t look too promising, but these patterns build out over quite a long time, so I believe the log charts are often better. That’s because everything ‘financial’ out in the real world is growing exponentially (money creation/debt etc). This is what I see…

This is another chart that says a move is coming very soon, just like the dollar and gold charts. It feels like we’re always waiting for ‘THE’ move to happen, but it’ll only be hindsight that confirms all of this. Keep an eye on the support line on my first chart. We really don’t want to see that broken. That wouldn’t be good. Not good at all.

No need for commentary. The chart says it all.

I’ve not posted for a while. Mainly because not much has changed. I’ve got 3 charts for you to show what I mean. In the short term (until the end of the year) I’m not convinced how big any moves are likely to be. I favour gold rising, dollar weakening again, followed by a December drop in PM’s and dollar pop. There is scope for gold to fall significantly though, and still be within the bullish triangle on the log chart. One thing I’m very sure of is that in the next ‘few months’ gold will make that final, crucial breakout, with the dollar slicing through support (shown on my chart). CHF/USD supports the idea that we may see further short term PM weakness (followed by a clear, bull market move). Other metals have been smelling this bull market already. Commodities are set to have their time in the sun again. Inflation is starting to rise above bank targets (3% here in the UK). Central banks are going to have their work cut out. 2018 is going to be a big year, when all becomes clear.

I’m a little unclear about the concern looking at this chart

… on the log chart yet.  Here are a couple of alternate symmetrical triangles. A break above the $1320-$1340 region is required. Some important dates and price levels are marked.

It really does feel like we’re stuck in no mans land again. Dollar drifting up, gold drifting down, and now Martin Armstrong (radio interview in post below) believes people are no longer going to turn to gold. He believes the biggest surprise next year will be a rallying dollar as interest rates increase, along with a soaring stock market. Depressing stuff for a PM investor. He has a hell of a lot of experience, so I take it seriously.

One thing is bugging me at the minute – the dollar chart. It’s very clear to me where the cycle should be taking us in the next several years. I’ve posted many times on how I see it. But the dollar isn’t playing ball at the moment. It’s traded back above its MA(200). That’s something it didn’t do in the last 2 cyclical downturns. Is it possible we climb much higher in the next year or two before the real plunge ? Is it possible we have to have a parabolic (even more parabolic) stock market and every metric stretched so far beyond belief that we get a crash so big that it resets everything we know and understand about modern banking and financial systems ? A sovereign debt crisis that blows up the entire global financial system. Maybe, maybe not. Here are the dollar charts for the last 40 years, then a zoomed in look at the last 2 dollar bear markets and our current chart. What do you think ?

The Swiss Franc/US Dollar ratio chart is a good guide…

If the MA(50) fails for gold, we’re heading for $1200 and that triangle apex I posted about a while ago. Skating on thin ice at that point. I’m questioning my thesis all the time, which is something you have to do, unless you want to get caught out. At this point I still believe we’re marching higher with PMs and miners next year, but a big SM/banking/sovereign debt crisis could vaporise pretty much everything except physical. Stay alert and be prepared for this ‘low volatility’ environment to end suddenly at any time.

Near term – following a similar bullish pattern to earlier corrections this year ?

Long term – just a thought…

Edit: Of course the MA (50) was breached during the 2008/09 mid cycle correction, but you get the idea.

The dollar is currently struggling to hold onto 93 and it’s MA(200) is approx 92.8

The last 2 times the dollar commenced its bear cycle it didn’t manage a weekly close above its MA(200) once it had breached it to the downside. This is a monthly close too, of course, so even more important…

Gold could turn around and climb again at any point, but the $1240-$1250 region could be calling…

On a log scale, we’re looking for a launch higher soon. Here is just one possible scenario…

The bulls and bears will fighting this out over coming days and weeks, although, as you know, I’m firmly in the dollar/toast, gold/rising camp.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article60311.html

To everything – turn, turn, turn
There is a season – turn, turn, turn

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiprqeaydik

The Byrds made a very good point. It applies to financial markets too. Not everyone realises that because they are ‘man made’, they inherit the same cyclical nature. There’s an inbuilt ‘heartbeat’ which shows up very clearly when you stand back and view from a distance. In the case of gold, there’s a well documented 4, 8 and 16 year cycle. They all converge on 2001 and 2017, marking these years as significant price LOWS. It doesn’t tell you what price will do in the next week, or even the next month or two, but it does tell you where price is going for the next several years. We should be looking for an underlying ‘big picture’ move up into the 15 year cycle high, but the high itself should come in the middle of the 2nd or 3rd 4-year cycle. That means either 6 or 10 years from the cycle low in 2017. That equates to 2023 or 2027. Lows should come in 2021, 2025 and then a major low into 2032.

Looking back, the MA(200) provided ultimate support following the 2001 low (apart from the 2008 financial crash low). The MA(200) is currently around $1244. All of this tells me that when we’re doing our technical chart analysis, we should be favouring bullish counts and outcomes for the next couple of years with an expectation for bearish scenarios into 2021. My strategy is to sit, hold and ride the market up to the year 2023, take profits and try to figure out if we’re going to see the ultimate peak 4 years later.

Not sure it’s a valid chart pattern. The ‘cup and handle’ should complete in months, not years !

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:cup_with_handle_continuation

Time for a strong coffee…

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/metals-massacre-iron-ore-enters-bear-market-copper-collapses-1-month-lows

Looking back at 2002 the 200 wma, once breached to the downside, acted as overhead resistance, capping any later rallies (on a weekly close basis). It did, however act as a ‘magnet’, with price clinging on for about 3 months before it finally let go.

In 1985, the dollar pierced the 200 wma to the downside and didn’t look back.

So what will happen this time around ? The 200 wma is currently in the 92.7 area…

Bigger picture ? Ugly…