Loading ...Time For A Recap Perhaps ?
There’s quite a debate going on. Bull or bear ? Here’s a recap of some of the charts I’ve posted in the last year or so. I think they’re all still very relevant. Everything from the dollar to the SGR and CHF. Patterns, targets, cycles. Make of it what you will…
Wow! Great recap Northstar, appreciate the contribution. It’s easy to get caught up in the short term ticks and lose sight of the bigger picture.
Thanks PT.
Excellent recap. Much appreciated!
Cheers Dave.
Always good to read your thoughts NS. I must say there are a lot of folks who believe not only is a strong whoosh likely but an equally strong reversal will take place in December/January. Since this is getting to be a very crowded trade (opinion) and many now seem to be convinced how this will play out and worse appear to be chomping at the bit to buy, I’m wondering whether the first move will be a fake out and we don’t bottom in earnest until around April or even second quarter 2018. I’m not sure how that would affect your cycle work, however. I’m looking for GDXJ to go as low as around $20 to create some real despondency. Too much bullishness as I see it still.
“I’m wondering whether the first move will be a fake out and we don’t bottom in earnest until around April or second quarter 2018. ”
Entirely reasonable.
The last several recent bottoms (Dec 15, Dec 16 and June 16) for GDXJ all came with my slower frequency monthly money flow value below 25 (0-100 scaling). Its currently in the mid 50s. No hard and fast rule, just a tendency to consider.
Certainly possible Gallo, I wouldn’t rule it out.
Fantastic Northstar….we missed your charts
Only problem is…where are the Bullish ones ?
🙂
Ah, thanks for reminding me Fully. I’ll have to see if I can find some 😉
Thanks NS
I like all the options put on the table side by side beautiful!
I like your first chart. It got me thinking on what may cause a liquidity crisis. Automatically thought Euro Banks then I started to think Government default (Internal default to pensioners, vets, welfare, food stamps, municipal pensions). Private pensions are going to need to sell the SM to cover the next wave of payouts also. Could be a very deflationary?
For a Capitalist system it’s sure starting to look like a Socialist system.
Good points there RL. The next crisis could come from a number of sources, but one thing is for sure – there’s less ammo to fight it than last time. Unfunded liabilities aren’t going to go away.