Loading ...Hmm, Interesting…
The dollar is currently struggling to hold onto 93 and it’s MA(200) is approx 92.8
The last 2 times the dollar commenced its bear cycle it didn’t manage a weekly close above its MA(200) once it had breached it to the downside. This is a monthly close too, of course, so even more important…
Gold could turn around and climb again at any point, but the $1240-$1250 region could be calling…
On a log scale, we’re looking for a launch higher soon. Here is just one possible scenario…
The bulls and bears will fighting this out over coming days and weeks, although, as you know, I’m firmly in the dollar/toast, gold/rising camp.
Goodo. Thanks Northstar.
“I’m firmly in the dollar/toast, gold/rising camp.”
And I’m just as firmly in the opposite camp.
BUT … I’m seeing a PM bounce and $ drop directly ahead.
I’m suspecting a higher low for $.
And a retrace wave 2 up for PMs.
Especially, if both (counter trend) moves are labored.
Both moves would be counter to FRESH LT turns that have become evident since earlier this month.
Time will tell Pedro, but in order to see gold return to it’s lows the gold and dollar cycle would have to fail for the first time since we came off the gold standard in the 1970’s.
Just a wild thought I’ve been kicking around have yet to bounce it off anyone yet. My theory based on just a sense how Trump may persuade all this FAANG money to be repatriated. Here goes FAANG money or any other US Corp balances repatriates money back to the US to Buy all the Government Junk Bonds being liquidated by the Fed and or created with the new debt ceiling at a sweetheart Tax rate and maybe choice rates on the Bonds. It would cause a huge liquidation of cash from around the globe interest rates outside the US may spike higher to try to keep any of the US capital they can. Just another version of the Pump and Dump scenario. How it would effect Gold in the US vs Outside I’m not sure. But this repatriation of money if it happens will/would most likely cause inflation in the US even if it doesn’t go into the Bond Market. IT may go towards Trump’s infrastructure promises?
Sharp red label…you should get a job working for the Fed
🙂
Certainly one possible scenario.