Lots of talk on the web concerning the pending / immediate crash or CRE. Here an update on DRV – 3x Inverse Commercial Real Estate.

Before zooming into LT for DRV; here is the ST-daily.

Did DRV BO of its 6-month BLUE BULL FLAG? Such could be argued even als last Friday DRV made a BT on its FLAG. Such would mean that DRV needs to follow-thorough next week ging higher! But if falls below the the HOR Blue dashed SUP-line … last week BO could become a False BO (FBO). So we shall find out next week(s).

When zooming-out looking at the weekly chart be observe something else which could mean that last week BO could indeed be a FBO. Again shall see next week. Below an un-altered chart as formerly posted:

Even though DRV is above the W-EMA(30) @ 48.04 and would be important to HOLD for DRV-bulls … what is peculiar about this (un-altered) chart is that DRV tagged the ORANGE DOWN SLOPING line not yet showing a BO as it is against RES … but also tagged eq. BACK-TESTED (BT) the (un-altered) BLUE Parabola. Although we are aware that setting parabolas is not easy, it has 5 perfect ouches + 1  last weeks BT-touch (!)

This weekly chart could inform us that DRV might GO LOWER FIRST which translates into CRE going higher before going down … unless a BO-UP the Orange Down sloping RES line. 

So let’s analyze a bit further … Below 5-year weekly chart.

I’ve added a RED down sloping line which shows us a BO-UP while above W-EMA(30). But there is also a (assumed) BLUE BEAR FLAG with last Friday a possible completed BT; labelling the January-2023 as a FBO. So the ‘bag’ is mixed but favouring the BLUE BEAR FLAG.

When adding cycles … this is the best I came up with and still is not easy. YES, I am aware this is a 3xETF and can be distorted but as long something has a pulse … it can be charted – IMO.

The Small Green charted Cycles (taken from 2022-Q2-LOW) seems giving a FIT and if so DRV goes into a CYCLE-LOW end-November-2023 which translates CRE ‘topping’ into Nov-23. The YELLOW cycle gives odds going higher into 2024-Q1 and has possibility. Even here is the bag is mixed BUT … I have many charts for multiple sectors showing me some Market elevation into/ around 2023-Q4 – 2024-Q1 from where ‘markets declines’.  Therefore the overal conclusion is to watch next week confirming any (F)BO showing its’ hand as for direction while NOT TRADING this vehicle (and just watching) into mid-September-2024 … suggesting DRV can become ANNIHILATED DURING 2024 (!!!) … inverse; CRE not necessary going higher in 2024.

Hope you appreciate the POST. Enjoy the Sunday!

IMO.DYODD.