I’m starting to observe in more detail the behavior of futures premium and how it affects spot price. Rapid moves in spot prices will accelerate accumulated premium in the futures contract. Then when spot bid pressure slacks off.. some of that extra premium is transferred to spot for a “blow-off top”.

Rinse and repeat. Buying when contango is “extreme high” is probably not the best place. Wait for the cool-off.

Note. You have to take into account the Comex expiry date. Usually the 27th of the month. Premium and discount always shrink to spot on expiry. You can see that in the chart as we approach the 27th.

Then the premium or discount between gc1! and gc2! (current contract in front and next contract in front) is seen in delta between spot and gc1! (which is a promoted gc2! => gc1!).

See here why it’s important to watch delta between gc1! and gc2! as we approach expiry. Nothing is lost… just hidden in next cycle.

So when you think premium is dwindling… it could be because we are approaching expiry date.. and the premium is rolled over in next contract.

Edit: Further analysis shows you must “concatenate” running contracts to make sure the “complete” picture is taken into account.