Goldtent TA Paradise

Gold

1. Nautilus says:

   February 28, 2020 - 12:24 pm at 12:24 pm

   In a vacuum, $gold looks fine. I would wait for a test of the 50 WMA before buying though.

2. Fullgoldcrown says:

   February 28, 2020 - 12:31 pm at 12:31 pm

   Added the 50dma to the chart…looks like we just about hit it already

3. JSKauai says:

   February 28, 2020 - 12:34 pm at 12:34 pm

   Buy silver very practical to use for door stops

4. Surf City says:

   February 28, 2020 - 12:40 pm at 12:40 pm

   Gold & PM’s are oversold here and due for a bounce but I am not going to be a Buyer here as the miners (GDX & GDXJ) have already broken below their Nov 2019 ICL level and are likely headed much lower based on my Time & Price models. Another issue to be explored is “Was this all just a retest of the 2011 High that has now failed?” Too soon to say but markets love to retest major highs & lows so we shall see as the whole move up from 2016 could be just a retest that may have failed. We won’t know for sure until later this Fall perhaps but if correct, Gold would then likely be headed down towards 1000 again…

   • Fullgoldcrown says:

     February 28, 2020 - 12:45 pm at 12:45 pm

     Hi Surf

     Gold didn’t retest anything near the 2011 highs

     And it DID breakout of a big pattern when it rose above 1360 or so…THAT could be retested before resumption up

     • Surf City says:

       February 28, 2020 - 12:57 pm at 12:57 pm

       Fully, The move to 1695 this cycle is close enough to a retest of 1900 in my mind but we likely won’t know until we see how the next two Intermedidate Cycles play out. Higher Highs above 1700 would be constructive while lower highs follow by lower lows would be Bearish in my Cycle view of the Gold market.

       • pedro_deleon says:

         February 28, 2020 - 1:52 pm at 1:52 pm

         Love a good mud fight!

         I’m with Surf …. there is always a larger CONTEXT, and the bigger picture (monetary) environment to consider.

         No doubt, the central banks will try again, to do their thing.
         But they will be hard pressed to fight against the tsunami of debt that is cresting over OUR collective heads.

         As for “But in this monetary and fiscal environment, I don’t see a bear market for gold at all.” But I see debt deflation wiping many out. Sell what you can, not what you want. Then, eventually, what remains flows to assets that are nobody’s IOUs. Its all about calibrating the magnitude of these forces lining up, and political timing. And however much confidence you have (or don’t) in those in each camp.

   • Nautilus says:

     February 28, 2020 - 12:50 pm at 12:50 pm

     If commodities keep on plunging lower and lower, at some point, $gold is going to probably have to give up some of its monster gains. But in this monetary and fiscal environment, I don’t see a bear market for gold at all.

     Gold hasn’t even tested its rapidly inclining 50 WMA yet. If it were to break below that MA, I would reconsider my thesis.

5. Surf City says:

   February 28, 2020 - 1:03 pm at 1:03 pm

   The bottom line is that for any market you want to see a chart making higher highs followed by higher lows within the longer Intermediate Cycle Framework. Once this breaks down, like GDX today (broke below its Nov 2019 ICL), it opens the door to potentially bearish outcomes. Gold & PM’s can recover from this but lets say that we now have strike one on the complex and they now need to prove themselves again.

6. Jim says:

   February 28, 2020 - 2:02 pm at 2:02 pm

   Seems like most everyone here at the tent has collectively set their hair on fire with the very recent gold action. With that kind of sentiment I’ll opt for buy, buy.

   • Patrick says:

     February 28, 2020 - 2:04 pm at 2:04 pm

     Jim, that is in back of my mind… I’m short term bear biased.. so when it’s time to go long again… I wait hesitate… when it’s time. When you zoom out on monthly chart… this move back barely shows for gold metal.

     • Jim says:

       February 28, 2020 - 2:15 pm at 2:15 pm

       I was going to comment on the monthly gold chart too Patrick. Not hair on fire as of now.

7. Bikoo99 says:

   February 28, 2020 - 2:09 pm at 2:09 pm

   There are two EW counts: bearish, Bullish. These counts have been on the book for a long time since last turn at 1045 in 2015.

   According to bearish count cycle wave b high may have completed this week. Now cycle wave c may be unfolding which in 5 waves down to target below 1045.

   Or Bullish wave count gold is in wave minor wave 4 after completing minor wave three this week. Next target may be 1834.

   Some more pain on the way in the mean time.