Loading ...This week’s candle in miners…
Let’s assume the metals rally next week without making a lower low. The size of this week’s candle in the PMs means that in order to make a swing low, you would need to take out this week’s high–that seem extremely improbable.
No, conventional wisdom would tell you that the metals and miners are bound to eventually make a lower low, and thus make the conditions for a swing low and entry easier.
That being said, wouldn’t it be absolutely hilarious if the complex somehow manages to rally above this week’s high without making a lower low? heck, even if we were to recover 50% of this weeks candle without making a lower low, people who sold this week are going to feel like jumping off of a building.
With my luck, this is exactly what is bound to happen.
Swing low’s may form but that would not be bullish in my Cycle Book as Silver, GDX and GDXJ have already moved below their Nov 2019 low (ICL) in just week 15 so this is a bearish outcome with no way to sugar coat it. Gold is holding up so far and has not broken its Nov 2019 low but I expect that it will do so over the next few weeks.
Silver has made left translated cycles with a lower low while gold’s was still right translated making a higher low. the low of July 2017 comes to mind.
I’ll believe it when I see it. The 50 WMA is already above the last ICL and I would expect buyers to come in bigtime on a test of that MA.
Maybe gold did put in a major top and the bull is over, but I highly doubt we will find out this IC.
Also, neither the $HUI nor the $XAU have made a lower low yet. Admittedly they are close though.