Loading ...Gold (and the Dollar) – Market Decision Time
Here are two excellent articles: one from and American and the other by a Canadian.
Both very experienced and smart; both right far more often than wrong.
I went short April Comex last Friday @ 1358.10. I covered those today and fear I made a big mistake taking those hedges off.
I now personally believe we’ll see a test of the prior swing low of 1309 basis April Comex (at a minimum).
https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/TechFocus-Weekly-US-Dollar-02-20-18.pdf
Thanks Boobooman.
Members / Readers please… note….while we love original work posted here by members …Booboman has some unique and original thinking pros that he has a relationship with and their work is NOT widely distributed anywhere else so it fits right in. I am finding their work very useful and I believe you will as well.
Going to read these now
Good to see all the bearish dollar outlooks.
My work says the exact opposite is unfolding. At least for the next few months.
And perhaps, not until after one last quick test of the recent lows for the dollar index.
Risk off isn’t far away.
Much appreciated Boobooman – I really like Bob Hoye’s common sense approach.
Article is by Ross Clark
I believe we’re seeing a COUNTERTREND dollar rally here. It may be enough to push gold below $1250. The miners might even return to their 2015 lows. I don’t believe gold will break down from its long term support though.
There is far better analysis posted on this site, and sites Rambus, Spock and Surf City Cycles than these two guys could ever offer!
Broad brush stuff is okay but you could never trade and/or invest on the basis of this advice!
The current situation is murky but I am starting to think that the USD is going to roll over within a few days and give us one more daily cycle allowing gold to advance along with miners and stocks.
IMO BooBooMan you would be best advised to work on & adopt a trading method in which you are comfortable and understand.
Not sure these guys are going to help!
My Opinion FWIW.
This article by Ross Clark is Brilliant. It has me reconsidering my Dollar Opinion from Bullish to bearish. I have not seen such a comparative analysis of the similar periods in Dollar and Gold like this . Lookup Ross Clark’s track record and you will see his work has merit and you definitely can trade off of it and do very well .
I agree we have exceptional TA analysts in this community , but that does not diminish this fellow’s work .
This guy has been providing technical analysis since the 70s .. .Institutional Advisors ( Bob Hoye) is not chopped liver
norvast,
I subscribe to Rambus and I agree that his analysis is excellent. What little I’ve read by Surf City seems pretty good, and while Spock is a very intelligent guy I dropped my subscription to his site because I [personally] didn’t find it helpful [to me, that is]. Others may well find Spock’s work useful.
IMO you’re correct about working out one’s own trading method, and since losing a chunk of money back in the late 1970s – early 1980s I’ve long since done just that. Part of that “working on” includes reading (and learning from) the work of three analysts who have PROVEN that they (1) have mastered their own method, and (2) have a long track record (20+ years) of being correct far more often than not.
The best technicians allow their work to speak for itself; they feel no need to denigrate the work of others.
Opinions are like assholes: everybody has one – but some people ARE one.
Thanks BBM. I think Lorusso does good work…its not stuff you see everyday.
Indeed he does. Two calls he made that I will NEVER forget are (1) the top in Crude Oil during the summer of 2008, and (2) the bottom in the S & P 500 of March 6th, 2009 – made by him on February 26, 2009 – exactly six trading days before.
A stroll down that memory lane is found below. (Pink and yellow highlites of text in the document are mine.)
https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Smith-Barney-Technical-Focus-SP-500-02-26-09-.pdf
Nice, Thanks for that…impressive indeed. Where the hell do you find his work? lol I remember trying to google anything about him last time you posted about him and I couldn’t find anything on the net.
He’s now in his mid-70s and semi-retired. He provides institutional level TA on a contractual basis, I believe to Morgan Stanley, but of that I’m not sure. I’ve known him for a decade and we’ve traded research for about that long.
There are two chart patters specifically attributed to him:
Lorusso 5-Point Reversal Pattern-Bearish
: Named after Smith Barney Chief Technician, Rick Lorusso.
Occurs when a market exhibits consecutively higher isolated highs, with consecutively lower isolated lows between them. The first point is an isolated high (point 1), which is followed shortly afterwards by an isolated low (point 2). This is followed by a higher isolated high than point 1 (point 3), which is followed by a lower isolated low than point 2 (point 4). This then is followed by an even higher isolated high than point 3 (point 5). After this, a prolonged decline tends to unfold.
Lorusso 5-Point Reversal Pattern-Bullish
: Occurs when a market exhibits consecutively lower isolated lows, with consecutively higher isolated highs between them. The first point is an isolated low (point 1), which is followed shortly afterwards by an isolated high (point 2). This is followed by a lower isolated low than point 1 (point 3), which is followed by a higher isolated high than point 2 (point 4). This then is followed by an even lower isolated low than point 3 (point 5). After this, a prolonged rally tends to unfold.
Interesting, TY for the follow up. I appreciate X axis pioneers. Not many folks study that part of the chart. I spend too much time in that realm. From my work we are approaching a pivotal time in Jan/Feb of 2019. It’s a monthly so you have a little wiggle room.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/zCcrfRcv/