I got slightly annoyed today reading a crap bearish article on goldseek, a site I like a lot. It’s not crap because it’s bearish, it’s crap because the author(a CFA no less) picked 3 arbitrary indicators & bad trendlines to imply that DXY will run to 108 this year, and gold will fall to 900. The author put seemingly no effort into his article aside from his arbitrary indicators. Anyhow – these are my indicators, and they WORK (ask how I know). I’ve used them to successfully trade cryptocurrency, and the markets.

The 2 indicators are 1) Bollinger Bands paired with 2) 13/34 MA Cross.

See this monthly chart of gold:

The key to the moving averages is to know that they’re lagging indicators. So you have to watch how the price is moving right now, and pre-empt how the moving average will adjust once the next candle forms on the chart.
On the gold chart above, The 13ma(blue) has been over the 34ma(green) since October 2017, which is bullish. But what’s even more bullish is that the 13ma(blue) recently started curling upward after the last 2 monthly candles. When the 13ma curls away from the 34ma, it’s typically a sign that price is starting a new trend/cycle in the direction of the curl. Not only is it showing RIGHT NOW on the monthly gold chart, but it’s also showing on the monthly USDJPY chart. Take a look below:

You can see the USDJPY is confirming a major breakdown, which is bullish gold. There’s my trade signal again. The 13ma got rejected as it approached the 34ma, and reversed course. Price followed through and confirmed in January. Let me be clear about this signal I call an MA cross rejection. The 13ma approached the 34ma and got rejected, curled downward. It will take MASSIVE price action/energy to get those MAs into a bullish cross now. The USDJPY would have to run up to 115, maybe higher next month. It’s highly unlikely, and once this rejection occurs, the trend has typically been set. My price target for USDJPY is now 102.00 (and perhaps lower later in 2018/early 2019.

As for how I use the bollingers, just understand that when they’re tight, a move is likely coming soon. Price will be pushing the bollinger bands outward in either direction during a trend. If you look at the monthly gold chart right now – there are tight bollingers, with moving averages in a very bullish position. My educated guess is the breakout is no more than 3 months away.