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The AUD is the Commodity Currency.
I Hope we are in the early stages of a Commodity Bull .
Base metals have been really strong as have other commodities
If Commodities are going to continue to rally the AUD will have Bullish Chartology
The Auzzie had a good run ….then bumped into strong resistance.
This chart is playing out as drawn when the Auzzie hit THE spot
Doesn’t look Bullish presently….a bear flag forming just below a breakdown ?
Also these 2 charts are a concern.
Chart 1 : the Famed False breakout and end around the apex move…Considered very bearish
Chart2 : Island H and S Top !…it just don’t look good !
Looks fantastic to me!
The AUD is in the 4th daily cycle with the last 2 left translated and failed.
It is currently in week 28 and in the timing band to host an ICL (weekly cycle low).
It may run on for a few more days but it is very close to the 50% retracement from the early 2016 low and the Sep 2017 high and currently on calendar day 47 within the daily cycle.
The RBA minutes read today gave no hint of an Australian interest rate rise so it did continue lower but once it hosts an ICL then commodities and gold will break out to the upside.
So I am waiting patiently.
In addition the Swiss Franc hosted an ICL on 01 Nov and is in it’s first daily cycle, plus the USD is struggling to make headway in its cycles.
A confluence of the AUD and CHF making significant lows along with a struggling USD augers well for the next weekly cycle in gold and commodities, which last around 26 weeks.
Pretty exciting times with the SPX in bull mode and not likely to host an ICL until early Mar 2018 combined with gold and commodities about to commence a new weekly cycle which should be very strong and make new highs.
We have around another 2 years before the mid cycle top in the credit cycle so my guess is that the SPX will continually make new highs until 2/3 way through 2019, while meanwhile the Australian stock market has been slow up until now but broke out in early Oct, and now showing signs of catching up!
Nuggets everywhere!
We are on the same page here norvast about the AUD, we should find a bottom here very soon, if not now.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=416618
RIO.AX is a lead diversified miner so take a look at its weekly chart.
It also is a good barometer for the AUD
The early Feb 2016 low marked the turning point for commodities – just behind gold as is normally the case!
It also marked the end of the “consolidation” phase for stocks in the credit cycle so what a confluence!
Off and running – buy the dips because RIO.AX is on its way back to the mid point at AU$100 to start with before the mid cycle slow down in stocks in late 2019.
Thank you Fully and Norvast. Norvast I really appreciate when you share your cycle analysis here at GT from time to time. Thanks again.