Loading ...Is it normal for a Fed bank to issue GDP revisions nearly real-time?
“On March 3, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent, down from -1.5 percent on February 28.”
It’s not like they were trying to tank the stock market or anything – RIGHT?? << see chart.
(also see commments for further discussion/links).
“Is GDPNow an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed or the Bank’s president?
No, it is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the FOMC.
Is any judgment used to adjust the forecasts?
No. Once the GDPNow model begins forecasting GDP growth for a particular quarter, the code will not be adjusted until after the “advance” estimate. If we improve the model over time, we will roll out changes right after the “advance” estimate so that forecasts for the subsequent quarter use a fixed methodology for their entire evolution.”
Yes it is.
Atlanta Fed has been doing it real time for years.
The difference maybe, the previous admin. hide any news that made the economy look weak and fudged whatever numbers they controlled. While most politicians spin the news, this admin. seems to provide actual results even if their agenda might be to show weakness for policy reasons.
Thanks PD, I checked the 2024 Q1, Q3 and post-election release Q4 FOMC GDP reports and the outlook was much rosier. Maybe excluding USAID et al, gov’t spending IS the economy? /sarc. Hence why Trump’s team might wish to exclude it.
Take a look at this 2020 Q2 forcast report, seems the ‘recovery’ years were already forecast, unlike where we’re going.
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2020/spfQ220.pdf?sc_lang=en
Also, see this 2025 Q1 and beyond forecast released just a couple weeks ago, what a difference.
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Surveys-And-Data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2025/spfQ125.pdf