Silver, famous last words…
I have been looking at price behavior of other commodities, notably wheat from 2000-2009 and palladium from 1990-2000, and I believe silver is within days of beginning a massive multi-month rally that should see it double from here. For reference, take a look at wheat’s run from April to October 2007 or palladium from December 1997 to May 1998.
Perhaps we see silver tag its 200 day MA next week, but I believe we are talking days now (maybe around 10 trading days at the outside). A conservative buyer could wait for the daily MACD to cross positive or for the recent resistance around $33 to be broken decisively before going long. We could easily see a bit of a bounce next week before a true test of the 200 DMA, that is also something to be aware of. We will likely see the daily MACD drift to neutral or even slightly negative, both the long and short term indicators, before a rally. Do your own due diligence.
My charts put us in opposite camps here, at least until I get a look at March.
I’ll offer up comments when I get more clarity off my work.
It looks “concerning” to me here.
Totally understand that perspective. There are plenty of reasons to be bearish the whole complex here.
I think the oddly most bullish take is that we had five waves up for the complex into the autumn highs as W1
And we are doing a protracted deep W2 retrace, setting up for the monster bullish W3.
And we’ve now started C of W2. My friend Sam was on a deep W2 count prior to the “breakout” move we saw in Jan.
His last chart was still looking for C of 2, but expressly called for its ‘failure,’ where the final subwave (5 of C) would abort and fail to make a new low. Either way that decision is still up ahead. Full C wave or truncated? We appear to still be early in that C either way.