This Time IS Different!
There is the old Wall Street adage about ignoring investors trying to justify buying at market tops and or selling at market bottoms, because “this time is different.” For most of the last century or so, that has been wise advice to follow.
Forget for this discussion, how things are different politically, starting with Covid and all the shit done by Democrats here in the US and Progressive liberal govts. in many other Western “democracies.”
We who have been following and investing in financial markets for more than just a handful of years, know that markets have changed dramatically over the last few decades. The single biggest and most important change, has been the proliferation of derivatives. That is how markets have been controlled and rigged with all the financial engineering that has occurred.
My main focus with this piece, is to warn investors in general, but precious metal investors in particular, THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT. Ignore all the trading adages about seasonality, COT reports, sentiment, technical analysis etc. etc. at least as far as physical precious metals are concerned. Using derivatives to manipulate gold and especially silver prices, isn’t going to fall into the usual patterns when the manipulation comes to an end.
Either, the bankers (with the express cooperation of the regulators) pull the plug or the system collapses on it’s own, because the bankers lose control. If the former, do you really think they are going to rig prices of silver higher along a seasonal or COT report or some other accepted piece of info that creates a tradeable timeline that insiders have known and been trading on for years? Of course not. It will happen when those type of signals are faking out everbody who uses them.
I actually don’t believe the bankers and politicians are going to do a rug pull to end the system. They have been kicking the can for so long, because it is in their DNA. The system will fail because the changes that have been put in place, just 3-4 years ago, have led to the draining of physical silver from COMEX & LBMA via the exchange for physical rule changes back around 2021. In gold’s case, the BIS making it Basel 3 compliant and the only other Tier 1 asset, is what has created the huge push higher in gold the last 3+ years.
So silver is going to bring down the system and when and how fast it plays out, is anyone’s guess. Does T/A and the charts show us the longer term direction, absolutely. Both have been in historic long term assents, because they are money and a store of value that maintains purchasing power.
However, if you think that following short term moves on charts or models or other technicals or sentiment measures etc. to time exactly when it will or won’t happen, is unlikely to work. It is different this time and so will be what happens, when and after, it occurrs. THIS TIME IS DEFINITELY DIFFERENT!