Loading ...HUI:GOLD RATIO
Probably the most important metric TO INDICATE a Real Gold bull market is the HUI Gold Ratio
It’s been horrendous for a long time. BUT ..Is it finally breaking out ?
LOOOOONG TERM PAIN
ZOOM IN SHORT TERM GAIN ?
FULLY’S FEARLESS FREEDICTION…MEET ME AT THE INN….THE BOTTOMZ INN !
R u suggesting a get together at the Inn sometime in the future?
Would be Great
Stars need to align
Stand by
I would agree with you Fully and I always keep my eye on this indicator in my gold bottoming system.
BTW I am still amazed at the negative sentiment in this now expanding bull market. I see so many even thinking of how to short gold. Very few seem to get that we are in a bull market here and it’s early stage. Which BTW is the easiest part to make money in.
Thanks for checking in Plunger
You have done some amazing analysis in the past of the psychology of PM Bear markets
We had a whole section here on your work
Probably over 10 years ago now
What goes around comes around
Since the covid lows, this is the sixth bounce off an OS condition for GDX:GLD, (since I can’t use HUI).
Sure, this could have been the bottom. So you play these moves as if they are, until you get taken out.
But proof/confirmation is another animal. And I don’t have it on my bottoming system. Another system may be superior on that score.
Right now, the ratio has yet to exceed even its last reaction high.
And its below its April peak also.
And on LTFs, my two key bull/bear indicators remain subzero.
And where’s the broad market liquidation process that’s still looming out there? Perhaps not so far off now?
IMO, too soon to be ‘caution to the wind’ certain. (ie, buy all dips)
It occurred to me a while back in Mid March when the HUI and Gold/Silver stocks were coming strongly off of their bottom that the wicked decline in Jan/Feb is what Stan Weinstein refers to as a “crouching tiger”. That is for an entire sector. First it dips before it can make its run higher. It has been clear from the beginning to me at least that the proper positioning has been to be all in and hold your position. This thinking has been based purely on sentiment. It has been clear that the sidelines have been fully populated watching this train leave the station. Everybody and his brother has expected a pullback or even call it a “gentleman’s entry” to they could correct their mistake. Of course Mr. Market is not going to let that happen, that’s not how he operates.
In fact last weekend I watched this little interview by some British gold “expert” arguing just that. A pullback to gold $2,000 being a great entry point. He sounded authoritative, but knows little how this sector trades. All doom porn in my view.
Yes, long term should be fun.
Key will be, during shake outs, not to sell.