When it comes to financial markets, much like anything else in life, the consensus is usually wrong in anticipating major turning points. Yes, for a while as the herd begins to build it seems like a trend that is gaining momentum will last for a long time. It almost never does. So with almost everyone feeling that the world and the US in particular, still has a long time to keep building up debt, for the dollar to continue as the reserve currency and for things to not get too bad until next year, or five years, or some indefinite period into the future, I for one am not willing to bet that things will just continue to muddle along like they have for five plus decades. The warning signs are all around us. Whether it happens in this year’s fourth quarter or next year’s first, something earth shattering is likely to happen to upend the trends that have existed for half a century. We may be shocked when it occurs but we shouldn’t be surprised.