On Collateral …
Growth is debt and lending based.
That, in turn, is based on collateral.
Typically, US treasuries (in lieu of gold pre ’71).
More broadly, sovereign debt. (that EU asserted was AAA, by diktat .. LOL)
Since the early 80s, Asian producer growth and tepid consumer CPI led bond prices skyward.
So collateral expanded in nominal value.
That became a self reinforcing dynamic, during the bond market bull into 2020.
Banking levered up on expanded balance sheet valuations for bonds.
So now we have mega trillions in collateral value, nominally speaking.
But AKA certificates of confiscation, “when ‘money’ dies”.
JP said “Gold is money. Everything else is credit.”
That lesson will soon become clearer to many more.
Yes, the Fed has been raising its (short term) Fed Funds Rate at almost every meeting since the turn.
But in response to the market saying it needed to do so.
Yet long term rates are also rising, globally, as they have a mind of their own. They see the handwriting.
And they are now reversing the bull market pattern, AND also, once again, in a self reinforcing manner.
Higher rates, falling bond prices, diminished collateral value. Less lending.
The tide (that came in for 40 years) is now receding.
So you’re sayin’ …we have Collateral Dammage ?
🙂
so clear -thank you Pedro