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All,
Just joined after many years of reading. Glad to, hopefully, add to the discussion. I am a Canadian, but as most in the markets here, prefer to spend my time in the US markets and commodities. Have some young kids now so also slowly building a stack. With the hopes of at minimum having something fairly guaranteed to be valuable to leave them when I am gone.
One commodity I have started to trade more actively the last couple weeks has been Nat Gas. I like to combine a variety of analysis when making trades. The bullish setup that I continue to see is, it likely just set a half cycle low with a bounce off the 50 day, and should have some fuel left to break out and up from the bottoming expanding wedge.
Welcome to comments, feedback and general thoughts. Hopefully this image posts properly!
A Hearty Welcome to the Tent Gus
Always happy to see someone from the silent majority step in
Love this chart.
I’ve been watching and waiting for NG to start something
PS you mayy be the first new poster to have figured out the media system for posting enlargable charts
🙂
Welcome to the Tent. I like your chart too, Gus. Looks just fine to me. The target will be higher than the resistance line shows according to my own method. But the direction is up and away.
Welcome Gus ! Looking forward to what you find newsworthy along with your insights during these interesting times.
Welcome, Gus.
And since I am a contra contrarian, and use EW at time, I will have to dissent on Natty.
I always zoom out before I zoom in. Years if possible.
We had the mid winter waterfall decline into a March low.
Further new lows in May.
So where the waterfall ended (technically) is not yet clear.
But EW says expect a wave 4 conundrum after the waterfall.
(The May low could be end of 3 or part of 4, in EW terms)
Then after that 4th is done, expect w5 down to make further lows.
I doubt that was May. My charts say NO WAY. Its still ahead.
So I expect whipsaw on the way to bear continuation from here.
We’ll see. A Q4 bottom seems likely to me.
Sir Pedro,
On a lighter note … nobody can be more contra contrarian than me. Even my county’s name is Contra Costa County (in Northern California).
Cheers,
GL
Sir Pedro,
What is your take on crude oil?
Did it already bottom in the USD 65 area?
I’m looking to time my first buy of OXY, for the long term, when crude dips again.
GL
Thanks all
Fully – your instructions on the sidebar link were pretty clear I thought!
Predo_deleon – you may be right, if we have another wave down maybe it comes with another touch of the bottom of the megaphone. I do feel fairly confident we at least tag that upper trend line in the short term. Then again, every time I am confident in price direction the opposite usually happens 😀
That, Gus, is a heavily populated position: “Then again, every time I am confident in price direction the opposite usually happens”
Couple of comments. First off since your goal is long term capital appreciation I would recommend finding the most prospective oil or Nat Gas stock buy it at the right time and hold it for years. Stay away from the UNG ETF particularly. It is a recipe to lose money. Also short of being a professional I would advise against trading in Natgas. They don’t call it the widow maker for nothing.
Appreciate the comments Plunger. Have followed the boards and your views on here for a while so I have already positioned larger chunks of my long term/retirement funds into encc.to as I like the idea of building up some cashflow to add at cycle bottoms over the years. Waiting to dump more into glcc, even though i know you have gone into silver miners, I am still wary of a further dip in gold/silver this year.
The nat gas trades are more with my “this would suck if I lost it, but live to make another dollar” type of funds. I don’t drink much or gamble so playing these types of trades is my vice I guess. Have to live a little. So far so good on the trade as well!