Yesterday I presented a short article on Silver and printed a nice chart pattern I have discovered which to my eyes is unequivocal in its clarity. The pattern is a classic symmetrical triangle. Today I want to discuss it in a little more detail for the benefit of new traders who may be struggling with time frames. So the weekly chart attached will focus on the triangle itself which I have marked out where price touches on the support and resistance levels.

And I have a green boxed region which represents a period of 29 candles (which is 29 weeks).

Let me offer my apologies in advance to the megabulls here who may be feeling that my charting is throwing a lot of cold water on their to-da-moon bull thesis for silver.  Silver has a bright future alright. No denying that. But like everything else in this world it will not happen until time itself has exacted its price. We often get so focused on price and the excitement of sharp moves that the element of time is all but forgotten.

I do it myself constantly and have to refer back to older charts I drew to remind myself to slow down and just let the magic of the days ticking by play their role. We will surely get to where we are going. But it can’t happen without the journey taking place first.

The key takeaway from this chart is that it shows the price pattern is now firmly bounded within the confines of a support and resistance channel that is narrrowing towards an inevitable distant vertex. We can now know with a fair degree of confidence where price will next hit bottom and from where it will inevitably bounce. So what remains is estimating how long it will take to happen. This is the cold water part of the days analysis since the most recent price spike was actually a long drawn out 29 week affair!

Shocking. It felt like a month as it was taking place.

Just spacing the points 3, 4 and 5 equidistant from each other on my chart and we may anticipate another 29 weeks will be needed for price to retrace back to the support line. It is a very long time. That takes us out to the start of December 2023 and the approximate loss in price for silver futures between here and there could range from 3.50 to 4.00 dollars or more than 15%.

What I am really saying however is that there won’t be a bull market in silver breaking out during the balance of this year if price simply follows the program inherent in every triangle pattern. Odds currently favour a decline in silvers price and with our chart in hand we know with some confidence where price is going next. So that gives us a little more than 6 months to plan and be prepared to buy what looks likely to be the last bottom in silver before price breaks out into the bull market zone.

If I am correct about any of this then we are also entering the accumulation period for mining stock so take note.

Miners will start to telegraph silvers new move ahead of time and some will start rising even as silver prices soften during this downturn. So the focus now should be on stock selection with less emphasis on the metal itself. If anyone is interested I can do a little forecasting on the silver stock of your choice. Just mention in the comments and I will take a look.

By the way, gold will also appear to be in the Doldrums until at least December. There is no real liklihood of a big price breakout there even as silver is pulling back to our support line. So this is good news in fact. Both metals look like they will consolidate sideways a little longer. For us traders we can take a deep breathe and just count off the days and wait patiently. Metals will not be getting away on us anytime soon. So enjoy your summer people. The real action does not get underway until its almost Christmas time.