We have been conditioned over decades of investing and analyzing markets to be contrarian. We are told that sentiment is critical in that analysis. While I agree in being a contrarian(many of my posts and recommendations are evidence of such) it has to be put in context. Just doing the opposite of the crowd doesn’t always work and here is why. Valuation matters. So even though I have been seeing some headlines and comments that the majority of traders are negative and positioned for a decline, they can still be correct and markets(stock markets) can still fall. After a 13 year bull market followed by the sharp decline in 2022, many have either jumped back in or never left the bull camp. Most professional investors and advisors are probably still mostly long stocks and have their clients (the general public with their IRA’s and retirement savings portfolios) still in stocks even if they recommended going back to the traditional 60-40 portfolio that some abandoned in 2022. Given that the S&P and most other sectors are overvalued against earnings and dividends(especially considering the available yields in treasuries)so while traders may be positioned for a decline, it is unlikely that the largest segment of the market (long term investors) are. The decline may not be a quick, sharp drop but is more likely to be a more traditional bear market that drags on for years with slow, long lasting declines interrupted periodically with short sharp rallies. The current generation of investors has not witnessed such a market in their lifetime. Don’t let sentiment fool you. Go by the charts, valuations, technical analysis(not just one subset) and trust your gut. Given that many charts and ratios are breaking in favor of commodities in general and precious metals in particular vs equities and even bonds, suggests a big shift is under way that will take years, at a minimum to play out. Sell equities and buy precious metals.(Both physical and the miners)