GDX vs GDXD
I was short most of last spring and summer.
About August, I posted here that I was done with shorts, but wasn’t long yet.
It was a ragged bottom in the fall, and I was a tad late getting in.
I posted that it looked like a BMB, not a BMR. So I stayed on the light side.
I was wrong on that one. We got more than a Bounce as the Rally extended.
My conversation with Nightingale about a top in Dec was premature.
Bucky dove longer and further than most expected. Me included.
But I was still calling that a (SECULAR, to be precise) bear market move.
Technically, still in decline from 2011 in EW terms. YMMV.
Another set of lower highs since 2020 in any event.
Even for darling MAG. (at least five lower highs)
So here’s where I have us now.
We should see a relief rally soon. 2wks from now?
Then, IMO, and after that retrace, miners and equities join at the hips for a dive.
This last GDX top (at higher degrees) took one of my key indicators only into the 50s not the 90s. (on 100 scale)
But certain other pairs were up into the 80s and 90s, which is RARE. RARE like Sept 2020.
Which to my math means this decline won’t end before summer, at the earliest. It will take time.
That’s my read OF THE MATH and the patterns my system follows.
And its without regard to EW, which happens to agree anyhow.
What do your tools say here?
Best of luck. And watch out for them dragons.
Yes it was a group effort by countries trading the dollar to go lower to help with their problems but rising rates will make payments in dollars even more and the need for them to come up with some scratch in USD. Sometimes I think the USA is being stupid on purpose just to drive the currency lower to help the world and themselves with trade but I am probably dreaming. If the war drums on the planet go quiet then gold will descend, Armstrong writes of gold down for 2 months and gen. markets may drop as well, either way it looks down to support on my chart. GDX chart with.618 fib at support perhaps. Why buy gold if a GIC can get ya 7% will be on average Joes’ mind I reckon.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/naEUQcf5/
watching for the first test of the ribbon on Gold, USD up into resistance may do the trick.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5ejxYfON/