If rates rise another few points and stay high for a year or more
……there has to be an economic contraction on the scale of a depression.
Starting to see more “lawn ornaments” without demand.. The start of a serious Real Estate pullback. Renewals will be painful. Very soon renewals will require one to pay down the principal as values adjust. Auto loans are becoming problematic as who pays cash anymore.
Sales flyers delivered by snail mail and email appear to be more abundant. Most of the crap will have little demand as inflation eats away at one’s discretionary income. Jobs will be lost with less demand and on it goes. The coffee shops on every corner will fight for survival. Travel and vacation demand will similarly decline. In other words we are tremendously overbuilt. Health, gym and other studios will be empty as those expenses are not essential. New cars sales will drop.
The WEF knows there is a narrow window of opportunity. National governments can’t remain solvent as the tax base erodes. The UBI would be welcomed by those on the left who have always been dependant on some program, organization or job with the government. UBI on the scale that would be required to quell social unrest would cause massive inflation. Government has expanded as the private sector declined. They will layoff many workers.
I’m thinking The Great Reset will fail. I don’t think they can transition us to their goals fast enough. We need to study what happens to Europe this Winter. We will just have to hunker down and ride out an old fashioned Depression. They will do a lot of damage before we turn this around. Other than home maintenance buys, I’m on a food and essentials purchasing plan. Many of my friends are doing the same.
2023 is too early for their reset. They need to get more ducks in a row, before pulling the plug.
Yes, in first half of 2023, further collapse of the real economy likely.
Q2 2023 likely to see the “pivot” after a structural failure event in the tower of babel.
Then we launch the final hurrah in capital markets in to late 2024, early 2025.
Then the structural failures kick in big time. And the wheels fall off.
2025 to 2027 Great Depression 2.0