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Still learning macro …
Still learning DXY
Still learning Petro-dollar
Still learning that stock markets just follow: Nasdaq testing 3-year moving average. Is today’s dead-cat bounce just that?
Preparing for more shocks and surprises as the second half of July commences. Fireworks already leading into the FOMC on the 26th-27th.
The mighty strike hardest when they sense weakness: are we at peak weakness yet? No doubt. Joe is as worst as “leaders” get.
Will a deal be struck to (slowly) kill/devalue the USD and let oil rise to the stratosphere? Gareth Soloway says oil will correct, may not as strongly as BTC. But the sinister leader of the US is just good at making scapegoats.
The US has a lot of natural resources. The Saudi have just one. Yet I trust they will have the winning cards here.
Bearishness in PMs is at a peak higher than oil and gasoline prices.
https://twitter.com/ShankHu15/status/1547909758350270467
couple articles from Armstrong. In his 2015 writings he showed the chart for today, market top 2022.2
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-petro-dollar-is-dead-long-live-the-dollar/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/usd/dollar-reality-end-of-petro-dollars/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/usd/is-the-dollar-really-a-petrodollar-anymore/
Sir HR,
Thanks for sharing Armstrong’s work.
Since the broader stock market relies on this “economic confidence” indicator/index, I take it that S&P / IWM may arrive at a buy-able (and therefore tradable bottom) in 2-3 quarters.
But this could also very well mean that gold and silver also grind in a sideways to down manner until then.
However, a reserve currency like USD depends on confidence. If confidence has (rightly) peaked and inflation has a much higher than expected stronghold, then DXY should start declining now, may be after the FOMC meeting on 26th/27th July. If DXY declines, PMs should rise.
Therein lies the disconnect.
But, LOL, I’m oversimplifying this like connecting dots.
GL
He thinks war will pick up steam next spring and money will flee to USA currency and markets, shall see what happens on the turn date. Turmoil in Europe, Germany now depleting gas storage that they have for the winter and they are telling peeps to turn lights off and factories to slow, protests with farmers heating up….. all ugly for the Euro. Day by day and follow the charts is all one can do. Royal Gold has my attention
https://www.tradingview.com/x/6RFg8YHs/
I’m thinking just the opposite for oil. Call me crazy if you want, but I think we have seen the high already. I’m expecting oil to be sub $40 possibly sub $30 by the end of the year.
to GL … whatever else you may have yet to get a grasp on,
you’re here on this board and that puts you miles ahead of the herd.
Couldn’t agree more Sir Pedro. Thank you for all your valuable posts.
Indeed the Saudi’s has played all the right moves so far
It makes sense that they join the BRICS
If they do, the rest of the Middle East should follow
In which case Iran comes back into the fold, as they are aligned with Russia
Then its game over for the West. Check mate.