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Inflation of today is not Fed induced. All of the printing never produced inflation. It is supply chain shortages which gold does not give a crap about. It never cared for the printing machines either. Cash in the bank , currency swaps to USD pay more as costs to store the yellow makes no sense at this juncture in time. We have to wait for the dollar to crush all others and then fall upon its’ own sword or war as I see things. Gravity sucks.
Added Natty, AAV from the other day doing fine.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/german-energy-giant-starts-draining-gas-storage-it-warns-insolvency-within-days
Sir HR,
I sense a lot of angst in your post.
What happened 27-28 months ago with Crude Oil futures should serve as a stark reminder to us.
In my own humble portfolio, I’m still reminded of the downdraft from the first week of August 2016 high to a mere four months later, when I went from USD 345k plus to about USD 110k.
I ask you, what could I possibly learn? Just to ring the profit-bell and realize profits more often.
Earlier this week, I shared about exiting NGD completely. Thanks to Sir Plunger for reading my post and replying with the mention of a French-ish name who had touted NGD going to 70.
There are many in the Twitter gang who have been wrong so often that it is not funny any more as serious money is being lost here.
This “bull market” is creating so many burnt hands, that when it does go back up, many many current losers will just sell for break even again.
SNWGF is my most recent short term PM junior win, and I am holding a very small cost-free position in it.
We have to bide our time.
We have to tide through these difficult periods.
I have 60-70 juniors many in small quantities, many just a namesake which will make no dent to my riches, or poverty, either way, but very very few of them in which I have invested 5k USD or more.
A couple of months or so ago, I was advised … do I have the wrong PM names, as many made gains of 40-60% not too long ago. E.g. AUY from beginning of Feb 2022 to mid April 2022.
Where are we with those names today?
GL
“Inflation of today is not Fed induced. All of the printing never produced inflation.”
Load of crap. Pardon my french.
Inflation is monetary creation = credit = debt (that gets spent, usually).
Inflation is not CPI prices.
Play soccer? ‘Inflation’ is a term to throw you offsides. Keep you from UNDERSTANDING cause and effect.
Monetary creation (by the Fed, by the BOJ, by the PRC, etc) can wind up ANYWHERE.
Even Chinese credit, thanks to BTC, can buy homes in Vancouver.
Or shares in London. Or flats in London.
So ANY central bank monetary easing, affects prices for EVERYTHING AND EVERYWHERE.
And that’s MY milkshake “theory” never mind Brent Johnson.
Actually, its not mine, but Prof Ron McKinnon’s of Stanford, circa 1980.
Open economy macro, without barriers to capital movement.
One giant global credit card, with thousands of issuers, most of it in the shadows.
But yes, currently COMPOUNDED by supply chain effects.
Cut global QE to zero, averaged price deltas would still not be 10%, supply issues or not.
CBs are simply RATIFYING the supply issues to mitigate outright economic contraction.
If there were zero shortages from the lockdowns then inflation of today would have popped up magically to the day after all of the years. hmmmmm As far as foreign property purchases, that occurs from a currency differentials irregardless of the central banks. Low Loonie to USD makes a deal for buyers. We went thru this in Canada a few years back when all flocked to Arizona to pick up cheap pads on the currency swaps, our local real estate slumped. Nobody said hey the central banks are pumping so let’s go buy.