The Wrong Question
Most observers of the US and global economies are asking and debating if the US can avoid a recession and if not, how long would one last. They are asking the wrong question. The US economy is already in a recession(which will become clear and official at the end of this month when the second quarter GDP numbers are released.) The question that everyone should be contemplating is, how can the US and the global economy avoid a depression? While the reason I raise such a question is obvious, the US and global leaders will not address the issue, because of the political ramifications of doing so.(They are not the ones you would think) No, it isn’t the fact that politicians never want to discuss bad news until it becomes so obvious to the masses that they can no longer avoid doing so. In this case it is because to acknowledge the likelihood of the coming depression they end up implicating themselves as to it’s main cause. Throughout history and particularly modern history since the industrialized age, economic cycles have been driven by increases in technology and productivity but mostly rely on the continuing increase in global population. As our country grew over the last two hundred years the increasing birth rate and much higher levels of immigration fueled economic growth and prosperity. That is not only over but a reversal is occurring. It is all about demographics. People had already started having less children but the poisonous covid vaccines have lowered the fertilization rates dramatically. Combine this with the 40% increase in all cause deaths for the most recent annual statistics and there is no way to avoid a recession. Given that a depression is an extended period of economic decline and the shots guarantee that less new babies will be born and higher than average deaths will occur for years to come, the economic decline globally is guaranteed. The politicians can’t and won’t talk about it because that would be admitting that the covid shots are killing people. Eventually, everyone will come to accept that as the reason for the deaths, but that is years down the road, if ever.
Interest rates in the treasury market have already peaked. As I posted recently, the July meeting will be the last hike before at least a pause and most likely the end of the hiking cycle. If the FED has access to the GDP numbers that won’t be announced until two days after their decision, they shouldn’t hike, but they probably will, because they don’t want to admit that once again, they are behind the curve.