Loading ...Continuing the thread regarding Nasdaq top
Sir Plunger,
My thanks for your opinion on Hunter!
At my heart I’m a Hunter disbeliever, as I have been a Gary Savage disbeliever even before Nasdaq hit 5 figures, but I have been wrong so many times … what if Hunter’s forecast comes true?
I’m especially eyeing the Nasdaq … which fooled everyone just before Thanksgiving (11/22/21) by making a nominal new high WITH ZERO FOLLOW THROUGH … that was the tell unlike any other tell!
It has struggled like anything since then, and even the longest standing tech bulls are now just trying to exit, whether partly or fully!
That’s where I’m lost: will the Fed’s ever-dovishness in the next FOMC, holding back on rate hikes again, blaming cooling-down employment scenario, create a double top, or may be yet another nominal new high in the Nasdaq and then crash again and then Hunter will ALSO admit, to save his name! I still want to respect Hunter, for he has been WAY more right than me, who (I) missed out the greatest ever tech rally and regret it every day!
GL
GL, May I suggest you take a different tack. Forget about what various gurus are saying and just look at the charts and the facts. Many of us have been saying the FAANGS(NASDAQ 100) were a bubble and due to top. Many of us(me included) were early, but correct. The top is in. They don’t come back to accomodate everyone still playing the long side. Look at history from past bubble tops, especially 2000. The DJ the S&P and even other averages may have different levels of bounces but the extremely over valued FAANGS are only going down from here. There will be at least a 50% drop from the high, maybe a lot more. It could take months or years? There isn’t going to be a higher high. That already occurred after the October bottom and the subsequent rally into November – Dec.
GL, First off totally agree with Chartmasters first comment about following gurus to the slaughter. Ya got to be your own man. It goes back to the old Jesse Livermore line about market tips. He doesn’t believe in them, b/c who is going to be around when it’s time to sell. I am not saying to not read what these guys are saying, but you got to have a filter. I use these guys to sometimes wake me up, to see something that I hadn’t thought of, but you got to make your own calls. Livermore had another great quote about it. The one that said a man doesn’t get very far in this business without faith in his own abilities. I like Hunter and I applaud his macro insights. I think he got most of it right a long time ago too. But no one is right on everything. He hasn’t been even close to right on gold. Recall he called for $2,500 or so gold before the end of 2021.
Myself, Since March 2021 I have not wavered from my gold stock bear market forecast. So far this has been the right perspective.
But I am with Chartmaster on this one. I think the general market has seen its top. Of course I could be wrong, but that’s what makes markets. Consider this. Our current QE has pumped more money into these markets than any other QE, by over 2X. That’s right 2X more than QE infinity, remember that one. The government spewed out free money, that’s over. The FED is going to close the tap within 90 days. Sure they are still pouring gasoline onto the fire,( at a reduced rate) but the market is discounting the end right now. The bear market has already begun. The downturn in tech started mid last year centered in the innovation stocks. It has now bled into the big cap tech stocks. Energy is always the last sector to do well in a cycle. We are seeing that now.
Keep in mind these tipping dates:
DOW/SPX- 11 Jan 1973
Gold- 21 Jan 1980
Nikkei- 3 Jan 1990
DOW/SPX- 14 Jan 2000
Those were all major tops. January has a history of markets putting in tops. Everyone and his brother is calling for higher highs here. Even the “alternative” Analysts like Dave Hunter. That’s what happens at tops and also bottoms. I have thought long and hard about this. That’s the way it has to be BTW. It can’t be a top if the consensus thinks its a top, b/c everyone would have already sold. Let this thought bang around in your head for a while.
Here is what we have so far for tops:
8 Nov 2021- Russell 2000
22 Nov 2021-Nasdaq/QQQ
4 Jan 2022-S&P 500
5 Jan 2022- DOW
Oh BTW.. Please Please be careful listening to these gurus. Savage… Jessh. I just saw he was hawking $400 silver on a youtube video. This is reckless stuff that has no useful purpose beyond click bait. Let’s get a bottom in on silver first before we move forward. Then let’s talk about navigating the 28-30 level. That’s going to be very tricky. Then what do we do when $50 comes along? These are the big issues to think about. But first where is the bottom? Myself I see a real chance that silver may visit $14-$15 before the bottom is done. I know that’s a paper price and you won’t be able to purchase physical at anywhere near that price, but the stocks will be traumatized if that level is reached.
To be out there in the public hawking $400 silver- come on man!