Loading ...COFFEE AND COVID
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New York Magazine published a story about South Africa yesterday headlined, “How Mild Is Omicron, Really?” The article’s answer was, it’s looking pretty dang mild.
There are now two competing theories. One is the South African experience. The other is a new “model” from the Imperial College of London — the same outfit that produced all the insane over-the-top models at the beginning of the pandemic — the models that fueled worldwide lockdowns and turned out to be totally, unforgivably wrong. The Imperial College’s newest Omicron doomsday model is based on only TWENTY-FOUR cases of Omicron from the UK. Including exactly zero from South Africa.
NY Magazine said this about the Omicron report from South Africa:
“Today, a new analysis suggested both that the hospitalization rate in South Africa may have been reduced by as much as 91 percent compared to the country’s last wave, and that the death rate among those hospitalized may also have fallen by two-thirds — two points that, taken together, suggest as much as a 25-fold or even 30-fold reduction in mortality.”
Wow. A 91% reduction in hospitalizations and possibly a 3,000% reduction in mortality compared to the prior wave. And that’s based on thousands and thousands of cases.
But the Imperial College is hanging in there! The loopy scientists at the doomsaying institute calculated only a four-fold decrease in mortality among the twenty-four cases they studied. That sounds good, but since the Omicron virus is more than four times as infectious as prior variants, the college projects overwhelmed hospitals and increased deaths, in total.
If the South African numbers are right, then Omicron is a cold. Wait. A MILD cold.
But if the Imperial College’s newest terrifying model is right, then Omicron is a plague to rival the Black Death.
Which projection do you think the White House relying on? You know the answer.