Collision Course: Monetary Tightening Meets an Easy Money Bubble
Whether investors are ready or not, global monetary tightening cycles are fast approaching. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its short-term rate twice in the last two months. Norway’s central bank raised its target rate back in September. The Bank of Canada is warning investors that it is speeding up its timetable for monetary tightening. More than half of emerging market central banks are already raising interest rates.
Here in the U.S., pressure is building for the Federal Reserve to taper its asset purchases more quickly. Jerome Powell, fresh off a nomination for a second four-year term as chair, and Lael Brainard, who was elevated to be vice chair, will be tasked to navigate higher inflation amid a tightening labor market.
Two points are worth highlighting following the nomination announcement. The first is that, considering how narrow the race seemed to be between Powell and Brainard, it seems likely that they will work together closely in guiding the direction of monetary policy over the next couple of years, maybe even more so than recent chairs and vice chairs. The second is that this next term may be very different than the last.
Collision Course: Monetary Tightening Meets an Easy Money Bubble