We believe the end of gold bullion’s consolidation is near (goodbye to Groundhog Day $1,800  at last?). Since gold’s August 2020 peak (see Figure 1), the metal has been consolidating the breakout from the multi-year base pattern highlighted with the dotted blue lines. Though the past year has seen many price swoons and exhausting trading, gold was never in danger, technically, of breaking its secular bullish pattern. As we wind down 2021, we see several elevated markers of macro risk that the market will not likely be able to ignore for much longer — risks that we believe to be in the regime-changing category.

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