Positive(But Not Yet Fantastic) Bull Market Action
Yesterday, Plunger posted about “Pathetic Bear Market Action” and the two ETF’s he featured do have rather pathetic charts. No argument there. Today I would like to feature the weekly silver chart, copied from “Jesse’s Amercain Cafe”. It shows what I have recently been posting regarding silver. This is a pennant or flag which is a continuation pattern for the ongoing bull market in silver.(At least so far) I spelled out the other day the clear price points that would change me from bull to bear. I also gave my preferred timeline and expectation that the consolidation will probably last longer than I expect. We will probably know sooner rather than later if a breakdown is the likely outcome. The chart allows for more time for the pattern to get narrower if it stays in it’s range which would be leaning to a bullish breakout but would more likely take additional time. We watch and we wait, for now.
You want a pathetic chart, look at MTA
MTA looks to be in a transition from Weinstein Stage III to Stage IV. That’s my take. MTA will be a big winner eventually once the bull market returns, but they overpaid for their royalties and they paid for them with stock. That’s dilution. Also they didn’t do a very good job of matching the production times of new royalties. It will work out when their is an uptrend, but there are better ones out there IMO. SAND and the new entry GROY is going to be a real player, but I would avoid both for now
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MTA&id=p09061825205&listNum=51&insp=1
I’ve been saying for almost a year that silver corrects for 1.5 to 2 years after massive price spikes like we had in 2020, but kept hearing “this time is different.” Well now that you have “capitulated” on the likelihood of a longer than expected consolidation, I expect we will get a massive move starting within days. 🙂
Excellent point, Sir Nautilus!
IMHO, and in my meagre portfolio, the bottoming ended on 7/19.
Many of the “highly touted” names, may take “longer” to “recover”. But, if I have learnt something over the years, it is that my being “married” to these and other “recommended” names, is not really helping me.
So, is it that I was “chasing” or holding the wrong juniors or royalty names or seniors?
GL
When you buy miners at any point after they have made major lows and after momentum indicators like the weekly MACD have turned positive, your risk shoots up dramatically IMO.
You simply have to close your eyes and buy them when they are extremely oversold, IMO.
Haven’t capitulated on anything. As bullish as ever on silver. I just said that if the chart doesn’t break down(so far it hasn’t) it can stay in the trading range for longer than I hoped because it is getting tighter and narrower. Extremely bullish action.
Silver trading up 25 cents as of now. Yesterday’s closing chart:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=M&st=2010-01-01&id=p93519647987&a=989691080&listNum=43
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&st=2018-09-03&id=p26957815611&a=989686397&listNum=43
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&id=p30894171759&a=253344858&listNum=43
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ:$SILVER&p=D&st=2020-06-01&id=p53095540279&a=989703228&listNum=43
Gotta go where the action is. For me now is the coal stocks:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BTU&id=p13658763003&listNum=51
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BTU&id=p09061825205&listNum=51
BTU is up over 10x in about 8 months. The odds that goes up even 30% from here without a significant retracement/pullback or long consolidation seems extremely low to me. But good luck.
It has taken many of those pullbacks along the way. Last week it closed down 16% in one day… That’s an effective shakeout. BTW I did just sell some BTU into strength.