Silver
This week and next should end the debate: Bull or Bear Market? While Plunger is to be commended for exiting and riding this out safely in cash, I won’t concede the bull has become a bear until the “chart”(see below) says so. As one can plainly see the low in Sept traded below 22. The low in late Nov. was just about 22. The low in late March was around 23.70 or so. If in this next two weeks we break below 23.70 and 22, I will almost definitely concede the bull is now a bear.(I said almost because a sharp dip below 22 with an immediate reversal higher would require study to see if after a bounce it broke back below 22 and stayed there. That would be bearish.) If we hold above those lows and rally, the on going bull would be confirmed by a break above the 30+ high from earlier this year. We all have our beliefs and ways of measuring but for me the chart tells all. We will soon see what it has to reveal.
IMO, a strong rally coming in the not so distant future which has been a consistent seasonal occurrence in all things precious metal related.
“in the not so distant future”
When you put it that way, perhaps. But I don’t see anything bullish before mid to late Aug.
And it may even get ugly at some point before then. BC’s “capitulation” call comes to mind.
From a weekly and daily $Silver chart, I place my bet on a low in the next week or so of 24.5 give or take. But what do I know?
With oil taking a hit the past week there is some related weakness in commodities but I have the feeling that is a temporary dip although a significant one.
Waiting for drop in Lumber prices to translate into lower retail prices.
Your bet on 24.5 or so is reasonable and that would not be a break of the 22 reached twice. If that then leads to higher prices the bull would remain intact as I explained above. Like I said, if the low is going to be taken out, it should probably happen by month end.I DON”T expect it to happen.