What Would You Expect?
Looking at today’s Barrons reminded me of what I have been saying all along but kind of needed to be put into perspective and context. Silver and Gold are BOTH, still in Bull markets despite what some mining stocks are or aren’t doing. They had the table which they print every so often of Silver’s daily high and low closing price for each year from 1998 until Present. What jumped out at me(since I saved one from last year at this time) was Silver’s high price as of July 17th 2020 was only $19.37. After rallying from the March Covid crash bottom just under $12 to over $19 in 4 months it then went onto rocket anther $10 plus dollars in one month! to it’s over $30 intraday price. Why would anyone be surprised or shocked that silver has since been in a tight consolidation for a year since? Normal, minimal consolidation, holding the bulk of it’s gains while setting up for the next leg of it’s bull market! Forget the naysayers who try to tell you Silver (and gold for that matter) are in bear markets. You can pick any set of mining stocks and or ETF’s and make a case for bear or bull depending on which ones you choose. As I said in my recent post, “What Really Matters” the charts of the metals are still in bull market consolidations. I will keep an open mind if they break down and make the lower lows necessary to confirm a bear market, but I won’t be holding my breath waiting. Sooner rather than later they will be breaking out of these consolidation patterns and heading eventually to new highs for this move and later on to new all time highs. The miners will eventually follow but you still need to be selective. The metals are and have been in bull markets, just experiencing a year long correction after a huge leg upward from March 2020 until August of same.
Agree again
We are mostly trading / investing in Miners and they continuously disappoint.
The PM Miners are the worst sector to be involved in. Have been underperforming the Metals for DECADES
But if you focus only on the Gold and Silver Charts…they are still in Bull Markets Long and Medium Term IMHO…
Unfortunately that does not mean you cannot go bankrupt holding miners through all their gyrations.
My analysis has made the case that gold (the metal) has established that it is in a cyclical bear market (through it’s price action). Silver has not yet shown its hand due to its strength. I suspect it too is in a bear market due to other anecdotal reasons, however the price action has not confirmed a bear market. (See post below)
BTW could silver simply remain in a consolidation while the silver stocks complete the phases of a bear market? Of course it could and appears at this point that’s what it is doing. After all since 2016 gold declines have been very muted themselves.
CM, I agree with your perspective on the PM’s. Also isn’t this time frame typically a time when we get seasonal low to be followed by a late summer rally?
Yes Sir JSK, seasonaly we actually should have seen strength already and that is partially what got me prematurally expecting the consolidation to have ended already. I guess the old axiom that when everyone is expecting something(especially based on past history) is when the market throws you a curve by doing something else. I am a very patient person. I would have liked to have seen a breakout already but remember, the longer the correction, the more potential upside(or down if that is the way it breaks) when the breakout finally comes. Since the charts (both last year and the 40 yr. cup and handle) are showing such huge upside potential, it isn’t really that surprising that it would take a year to build the base for the next leg up!
Chartmaster, in the interest of healthy debate and consistent with the process of attempting to determine the most likely outcome I am going to challenge many of the claims and assumptions made in this entry. First off here is how I view gold & silver vs the stocks as investments. I personally am less concerned on the bull/bear market status of gold and silver vs the stocks. This is because gold is a buy and hold forever asset for me whereas the stocks are trades IAW their bull market status. So its critical for me to know if the stocks are in a bull or bear market.
First point: Is silver just in a prolonged consolidation or is it still in a bull market which started in 2018. My analysis points towards silver (the metal) being in a bear market since last August. Is this a cut and dry conclusion?. Certainly not, as price has essentially gone sideways for a year now. So why would I say this? Well mostly due to anecdotal evidence and out of an abundance of caution. After all when one gets caught on the wrong side in the silver sector, he can get really hurt. A much better case for a bear market can be made looking at the gold side of the market. But recall how I have mentioned before how the bull market from Sept 2018-Aug 2020 unfolded. Very slowly at first then ended in a surge of excitement. The last 2 months saw silver come on strong in a near mania blow off finish. This was all pretty classic and having lasted 2 years is enough to be classified as a full and complete cyclical bull market. And of course bear markets follow bull markets. Now to the point that silver has essentially gone sideways for a year so it isn’t a bear market, this really doesn’t prove anything. I point out that these things can unfold very slowly. Case in point would be the DOW for the first year of its bear market from Jan 2000- Oct 2002. Note the chart below:
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24INDU&p=D&st=1999-10-01&en=2001-03-01&i=t7021179704c&r=1626533990151
It was in a bear market but it took over a year before it really broke down as we see below
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24INDU&p=D&st=1999-10-01&en=2002-10-09&i=t2976957101c&r=1626534184006
So this past example shows that just because it goes only slightly down over a year doesn’t necessarily mean it’s not in a bear market.
OK in this next section I am not getting personal but I am challenging the following premise:
“You can pick any set of mining stocks and or ETF’s and make a case for bear or bull depending on which ones you choose. As I said in my recent post, “What Really Matters” the charts of the metals are still in bull market consolidations. I will keep an open mind if they break down and make the lower lows necessary to confirm a bear market,”
I have a number of issues with this statement. It seems to communicate that it doesn’t matter what GDX, GDXJ or HUI is doing one should just focus on the metals instead. Correct me if this is not what is being intentioned. I would argue mostly the opposite. The stocks and indexes are a key element in analyzing the sector since they indicate money flows and may give us insights before the actual metals signal the direction. So I am saying that disregarding the message of the indexes is a crucial mistake in analysis. This is particularly important since I myself don’t trade the metal, I hold the metal, but I do trade the stocks.
Again this is not a personal attack it is instead questioning the premise and the assumptions in an attempt to hone our thesis. Are you in fact keeping an open mind based on the above stated criteria of gold establishing lower lows? When gold did in fact break down and make a lower low in late February was this not a time to question ones bull market convictions? It did for me. It made me question my assumptions and I came up with the realization that we were likely in a bear market, up until that point I was in the correction/consolidation camp. If this was a bear market it occurred to me that it was now due a BMR since sentiment was at absolute lows. That BMR did in fact unfold and lasted 2.5 months from early March to Mid-May. The price action in the stocks continue to signal to me that a bear market is in effect. Looking at the metals gold has confirmed this, while silver has yet to give the confirmation. The silver stocks appear to be in the process of providing this confirmation while the gold stocks have now delivered it.
I agree that sooner or later the metals will break out of their patterns. However, the evidence suggests to me that the break out will likely be to the downside. Regarding the stocks and indexes I place them in the second half of phase II of a bear market. It is normal for a bear market to end in a phase III capitulation. Indications to me are that the stocks and possibly the metals will be entering phase III soon and could reach a bottom before the end of this year. But I will watch the price action for further clues.
Now I am fully aware of the potential explosive upside in the silver space. I understand the structure of the silver market has set it up for a potential vertical launch for several reasons. Bullion bank short interest, lack of physical supplies, increase industry demand and the Redit crown in stacking mode. This spells a very bullish fundemental story. But for now the price action tells me price is pointing lower. We should all see this as a great generational opportunity. Be thankful that the market has revealed its hand for those who are open to receive it. Knowing this one can maintain his mental stability and be able to deploy his assets near the bottom. This is what we are attempting to do by challenging one another assumptions and market thesis’.
Second attempt to post chart of DJIA
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&st=1999-10-01&en=2002-10-09&id=p72311162847&listNum=102&a=993448126
I regard this as a serious indication of what is to come. have seen it before. We are assembling the markets clues that he gives us:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p95715325667&listNum=43&a=972625228
Just to add some reference points for consideration, the intermediate term support for GDX is at $31, which is also the 50% Fib retrace from the March 2020 crash low to the August 2020 high. For GDXJ the same thing can be said, but the support and 50% Fib retrace is at $42. Looking at the silver chart, price is getting close to the lower trend line (late November 2020 and late March 2021 trend line) of this consolidation. If silver breaks down through that line it will likely go to the $22 range, which will take the mining stocks down with it, well below their support areas I mentioned.
If silver can start moving up from here and eventually break above that $30 resistance area, it should be able to target $58 – $60, if this long sideways consolidation is viewed as a halfway pattern, and take the mining stocks along for the ride.
So, we have to ask ourselves one question: Do we feel lucky? Well, do we?
First answer to the question about silver. Given the crash in March 2020 in everything I don’t care what silver or anything else did before that. That is to say whether it or anything else was in a bull or bear market. You are more hung up in classifying whether something is in a bull or bear based on whatever criteria you define those at.Too much emphasis on time and not enough on what the charts are saying re making higher or lower highs and lows. Starting from the obscene lows in everything but especially silver that is the beginning of this bull market. The price rise was so large, the correction is now almost one year old. That doesn’t automatically make it a bear. If it breaks down yes. It is going to break higher first(just my opinion) I could be wrong and will adjust if it does as I said in my comment yesterday. For your question regarding which stocks you look at, the ones I own and have posted about over the last year or so are not in bear markets. MAG, BKRRF and VLMGF are the silvers I own and have posted about. They are higher than when I bought. They have a lot of volatility and are obviously off their highs but not in bear markets. Spme of the jrs amd rocks I have posted about are up, some are flat and a few are down more than I like but that is what happens to rocks that have no actual production. Some are in bull markets others in bear markets(exactly my point) and once again why I care more about what the metals are actually doing as oppossed to whether the miners in general are in a”bull or bear market”.
This discussion = why I love the Tent
both metals are just a commodity plain in my view and dollar related. The one factor that alters my opinion is the Euro right now. H & S top on neckline and under the moving average. Will the Europeans dump the currency and buy some gold or are they so restricted that most will not. As for Basel nonsense, some central banks/countries will sell the gold to pay the bill while another buys their dump. This leaves it up to the retail market to decide. Sure , Russia hoards it but it has its’ own domestic supply. Here is my Euro chart.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/mYlaDy8K/
If Europeans bail I suspect their funds go into the US Stock market.
BTW gold is not a commodity… why? For one indisputable reason… it’s not consumed, all other commodities are. It’s a financial asset that competes with the dollar pure and simple. Silver that’s a bit more complex. It’s both. Commodity and its hitched to gold in a monetary sense. It’s a strange hybrid wild beast.
Yes, but all the gold owners I know never sell the stash in fear of Armageddon . The widow usually recycles it at the local pawn shop . At some point it is only smart to sell it and exchange it for the currency of the day and rotate it into another asset such as rental property which pays and rises with inflation. Rent rarely ever goes down and it pays consistently. Sure as hell cannot hop on a plane with 10 oz and go to another country to survive with it. Gold jewelry was understood but now they dump their cash into tattoos. The new generations will not jump in. Yup, the stock market will rocket on. I ask my old Austrian neighbor what he will do if gold hits 20k/oz. He says he will hold it and brag to his friends, I say, why not sell some and go for a holiday. Nope, will have to pry it out of his cold ,dead hands.
Your comments demonstrate what gold is and should be used for. It is not an investment. Should not be confused with an investment that delivers a cash flow return. It should be seen as a store of wealth nothing more. Gives security and piece of mind. I know it has for me. Your point about the only ones who liquidate it are widows is a good one. Ted Butler brings this up regarding silver. Wall Street know nothing silver analysts like to say silver will come into the market at $40, $50 whatever. No I don’t think so. Nobody’s selling until perhaps $100. The record bears this out. The only sellers of hard physical are the widows after the funeral.
My take is that if you are consistently wrong for a very long time, eventually you will be right. So, there is hope. Sounds like a pathetic plan. Another difficult aspect of this market is the fact that most people, me included, can’t buy and hold most stocks for a few years knowing they will eventually rebound because every day sees your wealth diminish by a ridiculous and painful degree and that is too difficult to bear. I sold most and put it into Amazon until the bottom comes later this year. I hate the metals sector. Slow and steady really does win the race and that was with the stock market. The metals sector is for those who want to get rich quick off of that one winner that makes up for all the losses. The odds are a bit better than the lottery. This sector plays to the worst of human nature and makes most poorer for it.
A lot of truth in your comments… all around. But I do think we will get a buy and hold phase that lasts 2-3 years. But that is the nature of the sector, enter in with eyes wide open.
BTW this is why I am so focused in knowing the state of the primary trend.
My reply to you is not to make uninformed assumptions.The one thing I am wrong about(as I have admitted to) was believing the silver breakout would begin this past week after we got past the FED meeting and other timing obstacles I posted about in the previous weeks. I don’t just hold foreever waiting to get even. I first discovered CEF in early 2001 and started buying it around $4. I first joined this community in April 2020 and my first post(which I reposted this April as well) was about using CEF as my core position because physical gold and silver was the best way to benefit and select mining stocks help round out and complement that. I have written posts about a number of individual mining stocks.(see comments above about them) Most of which are still higher than what I paid and many still in bull markets. Don’t make wrong assumptions you come up with just because I believed the bull market rally would have broken out already. The stocks I have posted about and their performance is fair game. Try to keep your comments focused on that and not your assumptions about my investing strategy and whether you believe my plan works or not.
Great discussion everyone. Have been out all day so didn’t get chance to follow and will try to get back with answers to Plungers questions tomorrow when had a chance to read everything posted today.
An additional and very important after thought. Regardless of whether you agree with when I say the bull market started. in March 2020, you have to admit that the violent decline and subsequent explosive upside action immediately after, was a major inflection point. Given that, it is not surprising that the correction after that leg would be more about time than price. Had the bottom been a drawn out grinding bottom it would have been more likely that the first correction after the opening leg higher would have been short and sharp. The market rarely repeats the most recent pattern, in it’s next one. That is how it manages to confuse and confound the majority of it’s paricipants into thinking it is a bear when it isn’t(and vice versa). Again, Silver for sure and gold likely as well, are in bull markets UNTIL they breakdown and make lower lows. As for the miners I stand by(and have provided examples) that you can find mining stocks that are in positive bull markets and others that are in negative bearish patterns.