Loading ...Do the Math !
This article based on CDC analysis sums up what I have believed from the start of this Virus Panic.
Here are my calculations based on the CDC flu statistics in the USA this year and the Covid-19 information.
In the USA this year
-220,000 people tested positive for the Flu ( Influenza A and Influenza B)
-22,000 of them Died from the Flu
– That’s about 10% of those tested that have died.
Yikes 10% …At worst Corona Virus comes in a 6% Deaths ( Italy)
But hold on a minute.
How many actually get tested for the Flu as opposed to how Many actually GET the Flu ?
Well the CDC estimates 36 MILLION got the Flu in the USA THIS Season ….10% of the total population !
So what is the true % of Flu cases that end up in death ?
22,000 / 36,000,000 = .06% or about 1 out of every 1800 flu cases results in death.
(Usually in older people with pre existing conditions which were destined to cause their death sooner rather than later.)
…………
So if we extrapolate this to the current numbers in the USA from Corona Virus .
-4600 cases and 85 deaths AS OF TODAY MARCH 16 2020
Thats 2% of the detected cases have died .
If that is the kill rate..that is serious for sure …A DISEASE THAT KILLS 2% IS A HORROR STORY.
BUT now go back and look at the flu confirmed cases vs the flu total cases :
-220,000 out of 36,000,000 were confirmed by lab tests to have the flu virus ( either A or B)
-Thats .6% ( ie less than 1% of the cases were tested for and confirmed)
-The other 99%+ of flu cases were sick and got better ( like we all have done) without being tested…..
Lets conservatively use 1% (rather than .6%) and apply it to the Covid-19 statistics so far.
This implies that there are 100 unconfirmed cases for every 1 confirmed case
Extrapolate that to this present virus “epidemic” and we get 4600 cases X 100 = 460,000 cases in the US Population at this point in time…with 85 deaths….
– 85 / 460,000 = approx .02% Death rate
The average age of which is 80 years old.
…………………
In summary The Flu kills .06% ( 1 in 1800 ) of the people who get it.
The Covid-19 kills .02% ( 1 in 5400 ) and that is using a liberal 1% detection rate .
Feel free to check my math ..as my head hurts.
If It its correct… It looks like We have completely shut down the Whole World and likely triggered a great depression for a virus that is less Morbid than the common flu…by a factor of 3X
How many will suffer from this gross over reaction ?
How much Misery and How many Millions of deaths will result from this gross miscalculation ?
And worst of all How many rolls of toilet paper will go unused .
Holey Molars !
Won’t somebody just do the F$^king Math ?
……….
And Another Thing !
Here in Ontario Canada our Public Health Dept has a website which shows how many tests have been administered for Covid-19 and how many are positive
BUT they qualify the rationale for testing as follows
“The symptoms of the 2019 novel coronavirus, which can include fever and cough, are similar to other respiratory infections, including influenza. As a result, individuals who may simply have the flu are being tested out of an abundance of caution and in line with Ontario’s robust detection protocols. This means that most individuals who are tested are unlikely to be infected with the 2019 novel coronavirus”
Here are the stats as of Today March 16 2020
Positive …172
Negative…. 8464
That is 2% Positive
So 2% of the people who presented at hospitals in Ontario with “Covid-19 like symptoms” actually have covid-19…the rest have ..the Flu !
BUT of course almost all of them Thought they had Covid-19 and were in a panic ( which is why they presented for the test) !
Do the F^%&king Math !
AND ANOTHER THING
Out of these 172 positive cases ..almost ALL of them were sent Home Immediately after their test to self Isolate and did not require hospitalization !!!
So far our medical system is not being taxed at all but nonetheless our borders are now closed .
Restaurants are closing …most large business are shuttered….all dental offices have been ordered shut down and on and on it goes.
CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season.
Coronavirus:
Simple math- 90 deaths in the US in 10 weeks = 9 per week or 1 year (48 weeks) = 432 deaths based on deaths so far.
Do the F$%^king Math !
🙂
I flunked math.
You’re a carpenter and you flunked math ?
I have about half dozen calculators on hand at all times!
But more important, we mockup about everything first one way or another.
So would you snort it up with a straw Fully? 🙂
I’ve been in dentistry for 45 years …most if my career we didn’t use masks .
You can imaging how many gazillions of little beasts landed on my face and became inhaled after all that compressed water and air , enamel and saliva and blood becomes aerosol.
Are you grossed out ?
And you wonder why we charge so much ?
I am actually heading to the dentist next week. He was an army dentist and to this day is the best I’ve had. Thanks for the information Fully. I would come see you for some procedures if you were closer. Do you use your “ass” to kick out patients teeth? 🙂
I’m really sorry to say that there is more to it than these numbers suggest. Ask yourself why the doctors in Italy have described the situation in hospitals as a war zone. Ask yourself why every single, free, democratic European country and all of their government science advisors have said its imperitive to disrupt the exponential spread by socially isolating for months. The US is behind the curve on this, but the wave of realisation has crashed down on us over here BBC News – Coronavirus: UK changes course amid death toll fears
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51915302
Free and democratic to describe European nations is a bit of a stretch. It’s like calling the U.S. a republic, or that we enjoy constitutional freedoms. Nope, not anymore. We merely subserve the politicians, who get rich with their schemes and plots at our expense.
Fully, ffs please stop being reasonable! 😉
LOL 🙂
Sir Bertone are you in Italy ?
Nope, Southern Krautville about a 4 hours drive from Northern Italy. The hysteria’s pretty much over the top here, too. Just finished a phone call with a good friend of mine who (MD) volunteered for one of the testing facilities just recently established close to my place – she’s not really being concerned thus far and, btw, I’m neither. We’re going to have a coffee together tomorrow afternoon at her place – probably I’ll be dead come nightfall, jeez.
Hi. Thegatewaypundit has misread the CDC statistics. Here is what they say about the flu this morning: “CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 36 million flu illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths from flu.” The fatality percentage using these figures is 0.06.
The best website I have found for Covid-19 statistics is the World Health Organization’s https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd. These numbers are flawed for many reasons, but they seem to be the best we have. In addition to worldwide totals, you can look at each country individually.
Hi Norweigian
That is exactly the number I came up with .06% for Flu and .02% for Covid…see my math
Hi Fully,
The raw numbers from the WHO site at the moment are 184,976 confirmed cases worldwide with 7,529 deaths. That is over 4%.
The actual percentage is probably lower because of the number of cases that do not get detected. But even if the death rate is reduced by half, it is still 2%.
WHO has the confirmed cases in the US at 3,536 with deaths at 58, or 1.6%. Canada has 424 cases with only 1 death, or 0.2%. Well done!
Norwegian …I love you man but PLEASE READ CAREFULLY MY POST HERE
I CAREFULLY EXTRAPOLATED THE NUMBERS FROM THE CDC ( USA NUMBERS)
THE CONCLUSION IS THERE ARE AT LEAST 100 CASES NOT DOCUMENTED AS SYMPTOMS ARE MILD AND NO NEED TO GO TO THE HOSPITAL FOR EVERY ONE CASE THAT IS DOCUMENTED….THIS IS FROM THE FLU NUMBERS EXTRAPOLATED TO THE COVID NUMBER
READ THE MATH
THE REAL RATE OF DEATH IS 2 IN 10,000 .O2%
EVEN THE BRITISH HEALTH AUTHORITIES ( ACCORDING TO NORTHSTAR) ARE SAYING 1 IN 1000 DEATHS IF YOU FACTOR IN ALL CASES
IT IS NOT ONE MISSED FOR EVERY ONE FOUND…IT IS 100 MISSED FOR EVERY ONE FOUND.
YOU HAVE MISSED THE POINT OF MY POST COMPLETELY.
THIS VIRUS IS ABOUT 3X LESS DEADLY THAN THE FLU BY MY MATH ….DERIVED FROM THE CDC STATISTICS.