Last Thursday and Friday were quite a train ride. Stocks climb the stairs of worry, and then take the elevator down. The elevator gold was on must have had a cable break! No one knows what caused it to drop like a stone after holding up reasonably well in the face of a firm Dollar and a dropping Stock Market, but my thoughts are: (1) the PPT wanted it to drop and hedge fund algorithms turned bearish, or (2) the margin clerks sold that which had the firmest bid and that was gold…until the bid collapsed. But those are only guesses on my part.

Take a look at the three purple elipses on this monthly bar chart of Nymex Gold. In each instance the red monthly bars show a hook reversal. (Some would say a shooting star on a candlestick chart.) In either case it’s clearly bearish – but how bearish? Even though it’s not a key reversal like that of 2011 I think it does mean we’re not going to see a new high in gold for more than a few months, unless the Central Banksters panic next week and really roll the presses. But we’re truly in uncharted waters; no one knows and we can only play the odds as always. Right now the odds (to me at least) are saying the recent upleg is over – unless the Fed hits the print button.

Here is a weekly ratio chart of GLD to the S & P 500 Cash (SPX). It held its recent uptrend and looked very good on Friday though it dropped back as the Stock Market rallied into the close. A Friday close above 0.053 would be quite bullish to me.

Here are three recent articles by two of the best technicians I’ve followed over the past seventeen years. (And I’ve followed more than a few since I began studying TA in 1978.)

https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Technical-Focus-Gold-02-24-20.pdf

https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/TechFocus-Daily-S-P-500-SPX-02-28-20.pdf

The first chart in the article below helps put last week’s drop into a larger perspective.

https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/ChartWorks-Gold-A-Review-of-Fibonacci-Targets-02-24-20.pdf