Goldtent TA Paradise

Good Website for Tracking the Virus

1. Patrick says:

   February 28, 2020 - 4:33 pm at 4:33 pm

   Iceland has a case!

2. pedro_deleon says:

   February 28, 2020 - 4:40 pm at 4:40 pm

   They can be no more trusted than THEIR sources.

   They have no more access to politically sensitive unofficial data than anyone else.

   Can they be trusted to properly manage the data released officially? Yes, I believe so.

   Will I make decisions based on these data. Not on your life.

   These data are POLITICAL.
   In the realm of national security, for some locations.
   NK had a case, it was reported, so they shot him dead.

   • Fullgoldcrown says:

     February 28, 2020 - 4:56 pm at 4:56 pm

     Of course no one has an idea how many cases there really are
     t
     This website explicitly says it in the disclaimer on the bottom

     This is for tracking the official data….that’s all

     I would venture to guess for every reported case there are say 20 non reported. Non reported because

     The patient does not go to a hospital for testing .

     Only the worst cases will show up at a hospital

     How many with the flu for instance are seen in a hospital ?

     How many even are seen by their physician ?

     So many multiples are walking around with the virus…unaware.

     This is bad news and good news

     Good news because the mortality rate would be .15% ( point 15% ) instead of 3% if everybody could be counted and there were indeed 20 non reported to 1 reported.

     I still find it useful to track offiically reported cases so we can have a clue what next steps authorities will take

     Did you see the Original projections that were taken from the early reported numbers ?

     The line of cumulative infections was going exponential

     There were “experts” extrapolating that by the End of Feb Hundreds of Millions would be affected.

     The official numbers ( believe them or not) are not rising exponentially at this point…they seem to be flattening out.

     For what its worth

3. Jim says:

   February 28, 2020 - 5:00 pm at 5:00 pm

   Right on Pedro. I would add and ask, how many so called reverse transcriptase tests have been performed on suspected cases, say in the US? If you don’t test, you obviously don’t have reliable data. And even the available tests appear to be accurate only 70% of the time (it has been suggested that CT scans may more accurate when the person doing the interpreting knows what he or she is looking for).

4. Fullgoldcrown says:

   February 28, 2020 - 5:03 pm at 5:03 pm

   Meanwhile

   https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p1213-flu-death-estimate.html

   • pedro_deleon says:

     February 28, 2020 - 5:12 pm at 5:12 pm

     Also meanwhile, per Jim Bianco

     Italy was at 3(!) cases just eight days ago. Now they are 653. The number of cases is growing so fast that Italy is largely responsible for the case growth throughout the rest of Europe (so passing the infection on to those countries).

     • Fullgoldcrown says:

       February 28, 2020 - 6:05 pm at 6:05 pm

       Doesn’t mean all these cases started in a week…..most of them were already going but just not yet tested and counted

       In no way can one make light of this situation …all we can do is add a little reason to the hysteria.

       I don’t like any of this one bit.But

       We lived thru SARS and MERS and EBOLA and Zeka and Brid FLU and probably a few more that no one even knows about. How about a virus that causes cancer or heart attacks.. Do they check for this after the fact ?

       And I get it…this is worse than those …but also it is happening in a time where information flows so quickly and most of it is disinformation.

       All we can try to do is stay grounded and perhaps if you are religious pray a little bit.

       There are 1000 religions on the planet…if everybody prays to their god maybe one of them is the real deal
       🙂

   • Steins1 says:

     February 28, 2020 - 5:31 pm at 5:31 pm

     Thank you Fully! I rest my case. Hysteria will be what it will be.
     We live, we breath, we die……..

     In six months it will all be about the Kardashians again! LOL!

     Perspective is only for wider thinking minds…….

5. Patrick says:

   February 28, 2020 - 5:36 pm at 5:36 pm

   Not to get sidetracked.. is it me or a bottom could already be in?

   • Steins1 says:

     February 28, 2020 - 5:45 pm at 5:45 pm

     I’m wondering the same. As the emotional drugs from the self induced hysteria wears off…….

     • Patrick says:

       February 28, 2020 - 5:57 pm at 5:57 pm

       Yep. I’m gonna think good and hard this weekend. First time in a long time im 100% cash. I might see clearer.

6. Fullgoldcrown says:

   February 28, 2020 - 6:06 pm at 6:06 pm

   Look Both Ways before you Cross the Street

   🙂

   • Steins1 says:

     February 28, 2020 - 6:16 pm at 6:16 pm

     At 70 years old I look twice each way! 🙂
     When the hysterical thoughts wear off, the buying will be mind boggling again.
     The human ego thrives on hysteria, just look at all the so called “news” feeds we get everyday.
     Nothing but mostly hysteria and we buy into it like Cod of the Eastern shores.:-)

     Can wearing a face mask protect you from the new coronavirus?

     No, a regular surgical mask will not help you steer clear of the virus.

     If it’s a regular surgical face mask, the answer is “no,” Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious-disease specialist at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee, told Live Science.

     Those masks don’t help in the context of a virus, Schaffner said. “They’re not designed to keep out viral particles.

     • Fullgoldcrown says:

       February 28, 2020 - 6:20 pm at 6:20 pm

       LOL

       People think…I wore a mask today and didn’t get sick…so I will wear one tomorrow.

       But for many its better to try something than to do nothing

       • Steins1 says:

         February 28, 2020 - 6:32 pm at 6:32 pm

         There is a lot you can do and many publication about it including good health, washing your hands right,
         not touching your face and no picking your nose unless the boogers are more important than getting a flu!

         Wearing a surgical mask is actually a worse thing to do unless you HAVE a flu and don’t want to spread it.
         Wearing a mask actually becomes a cesspool of bacterial right up against your face and mouth that can make you sick.
         It’s a really dumb thing to do!

7. Karl says:

   February 28, 2020 - 6:34 pm at 6:34 pm

   I believe this is an important comment.

   We tend, properly, to focus separately on two different issues: the medical effects on the one hand and the financial and economic on the other. If we are sensible, we admit that we do not know exactly what is going on in either case, but that things are not necessarily great in the medical front, and that there might be potent economic and financial reactions even with somewhat subdued medical effects.

   I would like to draw attention to an intermediate topic, which may somewhat help predict both medical and economic effects: namely the ability of hospitals to respond. This ability will depend on the jurisdiction somewhat, but not completely.

   Reports seem to suggest that although the mortality rate is relatively low (except in Iran) for those under 60 (except perhaps for those receiving a big viral dose such as health care workers????? in China?????), the **hospitalization rate** is relatively high. Many older people who do not die do however get hospitalized. Younger people who do not die get hospitalized. (I have seen a figure of a 20% hospitalization rate, though I am not sure where it came from.)

   I will not get into politics, but I know of at least one country where there has been the equivalent of just-in-time-delivery with respect to hospital beds and medical staffing–many fewer hospital beds than a decade ago, and a decade ago there were not enough for a big shock. There is also the question of where supplies and meds come from.

   Some of the seemingly draconian quarantine steps make more sense if you think of a high hospitalization rate and a system with little capacity. If sick patients trickle in over the next few years, it will be seen in retrospect as “hysteria”. If patients get really sick en masse and start dying at home since they can’t get hospitalized, and others flock to hospitals where they get sent back home because there’s no room for them after they infecting heart attack patients and broken bone patient in the emergency department, it may not seem so hysterical.

   • Karl says:

     February 28, 2020 - 6:41 pm at 6:41 pm

     In other words, if the authorities are smart, they will do all they can to keep to a trickle the flow of sick patients to medical facilities — if they can. The best way is to keep people from getting sick. If they can keep the infection rate down, it may not be too too much medically for many people. If they can’t, systems get overwhelmed and things get way, way, way worse.

     You can flaunt low mortality figures, but one way you have hospitals that can take care of you and the other way you have hospitals that are overfilled, broken down, and extreme infection factories for when you get that burn or stroke.

     • Steins1 says:

       February 28, 2020 - 6:59 pm at 6:59 pm

       You do bring up a very good point Karl and it’s a much more serous one than this flu, it’s a shortage of skilled workers in the
       medical profession. Across all fields are lacking skilled labor.

       We have advanced incredibly over the years in research and procedures, but the staff and work force has lagged far behind as it has in all
       skilled trade positions.

       It’s not so much a flu overwhelming the hospitals, it’s the lack of skilled hospital staff. Why even build new ones if you can’t staff them?
       So then if some type of pandemic breaks out, no way to deal with it.

       We have no one to blame but ourselves. The tech work field is so attractive and pays so well, why become a physician or an assistant?
       Why become a dental hygienist or dentist when you can just sit at a computer all day?

       At the end of the day, it’s just one big Catch 22 after the other!

       • Karl says:

         February 28, 2020 - 7:26 pm at 7:26 pm

         Also not enough beds. Also the way the hospitals work now, the way they are computerized, and not necessarily so well, at least in the U.S.

         I have seen the comparison, which I believe to be apt, of the US medical system to some of the Boeing problems, where the money people tried to fix hardware deficiencies with software. In some of the emergencies such as mass shootings hospitals have to ditch their computerized systems and go back to paper because it’s faster.

         You are right about personnel. They are typically overworked now. Things that an M.D. used to do they have someone who has neither an M.D.’s nor a nurse’s training do.

         ….

         I have seen a comment elsewhere (not about hospitals in particular but about manufacturing) that engineers like to have redundancy in a system. They strain to make sure they have just enough to make things work, but also work if things fail a bit. (I am sure that you do the equivalent in your work.) They never would consider, as the MBAs like to consider it, that something being shipped is counted as supplies. Things are tenuous. People are overstretched. Yet in the current era things are planned with an assumption as if for perfection.

         …

         From what I read there can be a difference if you happen to get sick with this bug and you are treated. It could involve being in the ICU. It may involve meds, possibly expensive or not but not necessarily in great supply with significant side effects. If you get hospitalized and are treated by staff that is not overwhelmed and not sick, you may do fine after a week or two; if not, maybe you go home and die. This difference would hold true for many of us older people.

         You also have to think of what happens if you have a head injury and go to the hospital — what condition the hospital is in, and the medical staff.

         • Fullgoldcrown says:

           February 28, 2020 - 7:50 pm at 7:50 pm

           In Toronto there have been 7 cases diagnosed

           3 are resolved . the other 4 are fairly new …all returning travelers

           I was surprised to hear that they were diagnosed at the hospital and then

           sent home to self isolate. Not to leave home until they are negative.

           Not sure how exactly this is policed …but I think it makes sense

           Unless really sick most don’t need medical services…just rest and fluids etc.

           This way the hospitals are not taxed . I suppose they monitor the families as well .

           Not sure if this will continue . Interesting approach.

8. Aurum Maximus says:

   February 28, 2020 - 7:51 pm at 7:51 pm

   Fully, I never got a chance to ask. You were confident two weeks ago that Wall St. had experts talking to them and that they would have priced this in if it was a threat. I stated that Wall St were just idiots and algorithms that couldn’t possibly comprehend anything scientific. Just curious as a lot HAS changed in a fortnight. Where do you think things go from here?

   • Fullgoldcrown says:

     February 28, 2020 - 11:09 pm at 11:09 pm

     You were right on that Aurum….They didn’t do thier homework…but so what…if they did this would have happened a month ago .

     I think from an economic stand point it goes all to hell…and we get the worst recession ever…It’s going to close schools and malls and sports leagues and destroy jobs and that is the worst effect IMHO .

     Health wise I am certainly not sure but I suspect it will be like another resperatory disease we need to deal with…..maybe no worse than the flues we deal with every year.

     300,000 to 650,000 die every year of influenza..that’s just a small % of those who get it ( Hundreds of millions)

9. Alfa8 says:

   February 28, 2020 - 8:54 pm at 8:54 pm

   Some interesting things in the Covid chart on the bottom right:

   China’s growth in cases has flattened out. This can also be seen in the ‘Daily Cases’ view where the peak was on Feb. 13. This is good news, which should be getting more media attention than it has.

   And in the Logarithmic mode, the exponential growth is even further reduced.

   I like the percentage aspect in Log charts, which gives a more realistic view because of uniform scale over a period of time. Linear charts distort with exaggeration along the y-axis at the top end.

   The Log vs Linear came up in another thread this evening. For charting I have always used Log charts, and in all time frames for that reason. It’s also probably why StockCharts default is set for Log charts.

   • Fullgoldcrown says:

     February 28, 2020 - 9:45 pm at 9:45 pm

     We are on the same page Alfa8

     Not much mention of the “curve” flattening out in China

     Also if you look at Korea …about 1000 + cases and 13 deaths

     1 %

     Is that more accurate ? Korea vs China ‘s 3% ?

     Anyhow ..I think it’s important to try to stay grounded and examine the material we are provided from a detached point of view

     I am learning a lot

     I had no idea how many flu cases there were every year for example

     up to 20% of the population in the US gets the flu every year.

     Worldwide there are an estimated 300,000 to 650,000 Deaths a year.

     There is No cure for the flu either and vaccines are maybe 50% effective.

     You cannot contain a virus….it has to contain itself…like SARS did….disappeared …no one knows how or why …it just went away.

     This one may become endemic like H1Ni….who knows…

     BUT the Fear is gripping everyone now .

     I am pretty sure there will be a wild over reaction and many things like sports events will be cancelled in pretty much all nations.

     I am sure many people who get the regular flu will run to the hospital to be tested …It will tax the medical systems…

     Gonna be a very rough patch for sure unless cooler heads prevail.

     JMO

     • red label says:

       February 28, 2020 - 10:45 pm at 10:45 pm

       From what I’ve read Fully this Covid-19 is a bigger badder version of SARS. So SARS did not go away it was mutated in some form to be a lot more contagious. The mutation SARS into Covid-19 apparently isn’t something that was generally expected to happen naturally? As far as the fatality rate between haven’t seen anything?

       I failed biology in high school fwiw lol. I’m just going to accept that everything happens for a reason mentality and enjoy the weekend.

       • Fullgoldcrown says:

         February 28, 2020 - 11:00 pm at 11:00 pm

         Please supply a reliable source for this theory.

         You failed biology so I don’t think you are one Red.

         “from what you read” ?

         There are a LOT of things to read about this that are just made up.

         I read it’s just a hoax to make trump Look Bad

         • red label says:

           February 28, 2020 - 11:04 pm at 11:04 pm

           https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200221-sitrep-32-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=4802d089_2

           WHO.INT

         • red label says:

           February 28, 2020 - 11:08 pm at 11:08 pm

           What do you think Fully is it fake?

10. Aurum Maximus says:

    February 29, 2020 - 12:14 am at 12:14 am

    Thanks for the input Fully, all. I am still hoping this flames out by mid Summer. We are still lacking so much needed data. The reinfection rate is concerning. I find myself traveling this week and am wondering how to treat it. Kind of a mind bender.

11. Fullgoldcrown says:

    February 29, 2020 - 11:51 am at 11:51 am

    Response to Red Label

    “What do you think Fully is it fake?” Reference your comment Covid-19 is a bigger badder form of SARS which did not disappear.

    What they are saying in the report you sited is that this Virus is “related to SARS and MERS and some other corona viruses

    It is NOT a reserection of the SARS virus
    ….
    In some ways SARS was worse ….10% mortality……but it just disappeared as these things tend ( not always ) to do.

    This is a NEW ( Novel) Corona virus.

    SARS is the Dodo and Covid-19 is the dingo

    they are related but one is extinct the other alive.