The current dollar cycle appears very different to the last 2 now. Worryingly the indicators are now moving into negative territory on the long term chart below. This did not happen during the last 2 cycles. We have a major distortion here and you can see the effect it’s having on PM’s. It pains me to say it, but the outcome I viewed as low probability is starting to come into view.

We need a very rapid dollar ‘collapse’ and a corresponding price explosion in PM’s. Without that, the charts will be very clear – the 15 year gold cycle is going to be very weak, like it was in the 80’s/90’s, and we’ll probably see price bouncing between $1000 and $1400 dollars for many, many years to come. Could we be about to see a very, very big move ? All of my recent posts have stated the case to support a move up, but, as I said, the possibility of that not happening is increasing with every passing day.

The emerging market situation, combined with Russia/Iran/China/India/Germany all stating their desire to circumvent the dollar in international trade, not to mention the ‘Trump factor’, lead me to believe that some huge volatility lies ahead.

Bearing all of this in mind, I’ll continue to keep a portion of my wealth in the PM sector, regardless of short term price action. Risks (in my view) are increasing.