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Showing bearish GDX outlook. Trendlines drawn are weekly closes on log chart. We may have one more leg up to complete both the blue abc and larger green B before a long decline begins. To invalidate this we need to break the trend lines, and the 61.8% retracement . Current expected target to complete bearish correction is about 26.5
Uh oh… if you follow your Red ABC formation to its logical conclusion, B finishes around 12, C is back up to 31 or so, then the next down leg starts which takes us waaaayyyy down. Is that what you are saying?
Yes, Ken. That’s what he (and I) have been saying. All along.
First of all .. nice post. Second … good read Ken.
This count could be a bit more clearly spelled out with labels, for the non EW crowd here.
For most, the 2015 low marks LARGE A down of Cycle degree IV (in my view anyhow, which started in 1933. This IV is correcting the III that began in 1970 and ended in 2011.)
We’re now in LARGE B up of IV.
Neither of those higher degree legs are shown.
Red A and B are first two legs of LARGER B, with a C up not shown.
Ken assumes red C runs to 31 (I have no idea but fibs might help nail that down as 1.6x A.)
In an expanded flat for LARGER B, the middle (red) B low is allowed to break the Dec 2015 lows. It doesn’t have to.
I’ve been posting recently that we should be down at least into end of year. But the LT technicals I use could easily play out as shown.
Early this year on this site, I suggested the possibility of a triangular sideways green B wave inside the larger red B wave, with that final then contemplated green C down only now getting under way.
If you are new to EW, B waves and 4th waves are messy and challenging with lots of ways either can play out. Hardly an ideal environment for practitioners or students.
Thanks. I didn’t want to overdue the labeling but yes I am looking for a red C up to complete the larger degree B wave before a final collapse. In this event gold action would be roughly down to 1100, up to 1600 down to 800.
Yes but I expect C may be higher than that. Short term everything depends on the reaction in the 26-27 range which I think can still be reached. I favor a downturn at that point because of the COT positioning on pms and other factors.
Well, there’s a how-de-doo. This seems to fly in the face of what most of our respected gurus are calling for.
Food for thought.
Thanks.
I can see 26.50 being a long term resistance trend line and needs to breach for the bulls. Fundamentally, the fed deficit continues to climb which is good for gold. Personally, I do not put much faith in EW. I am a short term traditional momentum trader–I just want to be the right side of the trade each day. This move could end the BULL channel with a double top on the daily–I’ll be watching for a negative divergence. Thanks Ranchida, another line in the sand to monitor.