On a late Summers day, while the farmers make hay

we found a small spark, some light in the dark

that began to show us the way.

lines on the charts, that tug at your hearts –

gold will rise again, one day.

 

Well, according to my chart (copied again below), that day is pretty much here. So this is my challenge…

I have a chart which goes all the way back to the time the US came off the gold standard in the 1970’s. There is a ‘rule’ that you can apply to the chart for that entire duration that hasn’t ever been broken – when gold price moves from a blue line to the next red line (approx 3 years), the price rises and peaks at that red line. A move down, so that we are lower in 2020 than we are now would be the first time the rule has ever been broken. Anyone that thinks we are going to see prices fall  – show me a) Why this chart will fail for the first time ever, and, b) Show me an equivalent chart, going back 50 years that proves your point. It needs to not just suggest a lower price 2 years from now, but it needs to demonstrate that by moving lower it is somehow behaving in a way that has been demonstrated in the past. If this can’t be done it shows that we are either going up, as my chart suggests, or the next 2 years will be completely unprecedented in the history of the gold market post 1970’s.

 

I should say, that I’m not a bull, blinded by the glitter of PM’s – I’m trying to be pragmatic and consider all angles. I would appreciate finding a strong counter argument – the charts just aren’t giving it to me. I’ve read lots of bearish predictions, but haven’t found one that stacks up in terms of showing how this chart will get broken for the first time ever. In isolation, I can find things to suggest gold might go down, but only short term. It’s the price in 2020 versus todays price I’m interested in. So, come on, someone, pick up the gauntlet 🙂