On the basis of the last few 15 year cycles, the answer is yes. Notice on the chart below that in the 1980’s the dollars ascent registered a 76 degree angle. In its next bull run in the late 1990’s, it managed to climb at a 56 degree angle. That’s approximately 70% of the previous achievement. The following bull run (just ended), only managed 70% of the last one in terms of it’s angle of ascent – it achieved just 39 degrees. Why does this matter ? Well it’s indicative of a loss of ‘traction’, a loss of energy if you like. Each successive cycle produces a weaker bounce.

 

We can also see that there is a pretty consistent angle of descent following each bull (58-60 degrees), taking us to the ultimate low. Using this as a guide, and I know this may sound crazy, but it projects a low of somewhere close to 50 in 2025. Beyond that, we might reasonably expect a shallower angle of ascent for 7 or 8 years taking us to a lower high. How low does it need to go before it dies ? I don’t know, but one thing is certain – PM’s will be a good place to be for many years to come.

 

Here’s the chart