Loading ...Euro 10 year
The Euro is The Anti Dollar as we well know
Traditionally Gold Follows the Euro
So it Follows…if you are bullish on Gold You are Bullish on the Euro
Now before you close your mind and repeat the Goldbug Mantra “Gold will now go up no matter what the Dollar Does
as it will be seen as the ultimate currency..”…have an objective view of the Euro Chart and see if there is a bottom in sight ?
Anyone see a Bottoming Patttern >?
That’s what I thought
So now lets see if there is an example of Gold decoupling from the Euro ?
Few and Short and Far Between , But there is a glimmer of hope…we got one now.
However the odds of this going very far are very low
best We Goldophiles “Hope” that this classic Euro breakdown is a fake out and The Euro suddenly beats the US Dollars Butt
Maybe as it has been said if The deadbeat Euro nations like Greece and Italy and France etc all Exit… the Euro will be used only in Germany and the Northern States and therefore it will become strong again.But then again that’s just speculation
For now its best to …as always…Follow the Charts.
The latter half of this article further elaborates on where the EURO could go, possibly to 70?
http://www.silver-phoenix500.com/article/rising-interest-rates-fueling-us-dollar-higher-2017
I dunno Fully, other factors affecting the PM space may include another monthly US CPI print to the upside and currently it seems bets are coming off of a ‘countering’ March rate hike (ZH article). The Fed is definately behind the inflation curve (and they wish to be although they wouldn’t confess it). Also we have a flattened, possibly increasing un-employment level – still under 5% though. Presently we in the US are at a peak state of bliss – markets at all time highs, low unemployment and nascent CPI – what’s not to love – except perhaps that we are on the cusp of going in the OTHER direction with a MOUNTAIN of debt and no monetary policy ammo left (well maybe 2 rate decreases heh). I agree in the EUD USD idea above just not the degree to which it will impact PM’s – factors I’ve outlined will have greater impact IMO. The US’s ONLY ticket out of it’s debt problem without a $ deval system shock, is inflation which MUST be allowed to grow in unison with our own baby bull.
Charts are histories.
Projections are mysteries.
On the wrong side now is misery.
Anyone see a Bottoming Pattern?
Yes there is an inverse H&S mapping out as we speak on the daily, which ties in perfectly with multiple cycles. I know which way I think the best risk:reward is skewed.
Even though this is a moderator piece I am surprised that my take is not mentioned here really. I have tried to post extensively on the US dollar and the Euro.
Yes, I definitely see a bottoming pattern in the Euro, as I have been posting. I have also been posting where we are going.
My take plus my bottoming pattern on the daily chart:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=395492
My take plus my bottoming pattern on the monthly chart:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=392891
Graddhy…No Offense against any one is implied here. Your work is exemplary and well documented and I am HOPING you have nailed this as I am very Long the Rocks .
This Chart was meant to stimulate discussion ….Call it the devils advocate chart. You too are a Rambus Student and have taken his teachings and run with it . Can you see where , considering just this one Weekly chart , the Euro has broken out classically and backtested classically and is now falling away again ?
There MAY be a 1 2 3 4 small pattern developing here just below the larger one with one more Up to retest the bottom line.
If the retest is “successful” and we fall away again this could be a Very bearish Weekly Euro Chart.
I do see the potential for a reversal on the Dailies , as you have shown , that and the many other charts you post are very convincing. BUT until this thing convincingly breaks back above that bottom line I believe the weekly has to be respected.
Thank you for joining the debate here , I just re read those posts , very well presented and very sharp eye …and I Hope it plays out that way.
RespectFully
None taken my friend. I just thought I would add my stuff here as I really do think it shows the way.
I absolutely see that it has broken down classically and backtested classically, BUT, I do not see it fall away downwards here.
On the contrary, as I show with my charts in the links above, I am actually convinced that we now have a FBO under my 20 year trend line, now resistance line, forming a inverse h&s on the daily.
And the $USD is forming several reversal patterns between my two very important trend lines as I explain in my posts linked above.
I think we move in the coming week; US dollar down and Euro up, decisively.
OK…we agree…IF…The Dollar breaks Below its breakout point and decisively stays there…That will be wonderful….
Just so we all know..we PM Bulls are betting on a Strong Euro in the midst of great turmoil in that region’s monetary regime…The Union looks to be disintegrating .
I would say that the Euro just has to be stronger than the US dollar, or, less weak than a weak US dollar. The Euro does not have to be strong by itself in order to rise as all fx is a ratio.
When the USD dollar starts to fall away the Euro is just along for the ride. But, the Euro will probably get stronger in itself too as ECB is about to take its lead foot of the QE accelarator.
ForexLive:
CFTC commitment of traders report: EUR shorts increase as Paris election may be an influence
Fri 24 Feb 2017 20:37:01 GMT
Fully,
maybe gold is rising because financial crash probabilities are going up since Le Pen is able to win the elections.
We all know what Le Pen wants… Make France leave the euro.
Can gold and € break this correlation? Of course.
Something to add here… Gold is going up as German Bonds are in maximum bid, or negative % …
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-24/german-2y-yield-plunges-record-095-citi-explains-why-it-will-keep-dropping
“If Citi is correct, expect a continuation of the bifurcated paradox of stocks rising even as the German “flight to safety” asset continues to show a level of near panic by market investors, leading to even more confusion.”
Thanks Cervantes for the Euro point of view
Maybe this time IS different and the Euro and Gold can diverge
That would be Big !
http://ashraflaidi.com/articles/protectionism-won-t-protect-usd
Another take on the USD long term. I think the same as Ashraf Laidi
USDJPY
EUR is being muddied up by the upcoming elections. ECB is behind the curve (as is Fed) on inflation. The other proxy for gold is JPY. Weekly MA are 108 and 110 with a possible massive triangle building out with the 3rd wave down. EUR may bump and grind but JPY may give us a clearer picture on where Gold is headed.