Loading ...Rambus Take on UUP and The Dollar
Cant post here as its members only for now
All I can say is its diametrically opposed to the bearish posts and has me concerned
as I am all in PM Rocks.
We must be aware that the Elephant is Still in the Room
I wont be comfy here unless 98 on the Dollar Goes ( diagonal line)
My chart is way Less sophisticated than Rambus work But here it is
Why have you not also drawn the huge negative divergence on the RSI from March 2015 to beginning 2017? Doesn’t think long term divergence have merit?
In My experience Divergences on weekly and monthly charts are next to useless
They can go on for years without resolution.
They can be useful on day and minute charts though
looks like odds are in the up side. I guess we gotta draw a line in the sand where if she breaks resistance ( – 102 ) then jump out time. Safer in cash than to loose it again. Always other sand boxes. For myself, we are up another week. See where it goes monthly and my level to clear on that is 1256. Maybe she building a right shoulder !:) Big 3 year base for sure. I do smell another QE from the potus who likes to borrow also. Just some rambles.
Thanks for sharing Fully (and Rambus),
Much appreciated.
FWIW…
1. Personally I tend towards Spock & Graddhy’s scenario.
2.It looks as if your USD chart should resolve itself by or around begin April.
3. We are due another bout of bond liquidations in that timeframe – which is bad for GOLD. See this 11 Nov 2016 article by Jeffrey Snider, It’s Not Actually Inconsistent, which talks about this aspect of gold vis a vis the wholesale market, to wit:
“…..I have to believe that the resulting action across these two trading days [week commencing 7 Nov 2016] is linked to the disorderly selling in bonds, especially the massive irregularities for interest rate swap trading. What the UST market did was show very large margin calls that were likely good for more than just the UST market. If we are talking about derivatives, that would mean UST’s as collateral, and therefore a good bet that gold was in play as a last-resort funding method (highly negative for gold prices)“.
4. Last week, Jeffrey Snider wrote about Changes In TIC. The chart at the bottom of this recent article – called ‘China Official Foreign Exchange’ – confirms we are due another round of UST liquidations by PBOC by mid March.
5. My take on all these moving pieces is that (i) any USD to 102 before April could be due to temporary disorder in UST market, which is why I posted the GOV versus XAU chart yesterday, and (ii) an USD BO above 104 would signal USD strength (i.e. time to review some miner positions).