Loading ...ABX …Follow THE Leader
Barrick Gold….World’s Largest Gold Miner.
Some say its Flawed…over hedged…poorly managed…whatever
I would never buy it BUT Somebody DOES
This stock looked to be going to zero at the end of 2015.
It lead the PM Complex Down . Went from $52 to $6 in 4 years.
The industry leader ! Incredible almost 90% Loss…worse than most Juniors !
It broke thru the 2008 crash bottom like it wasn’t even there. One of the worst crashes I have seen…ever ..in any industry. A true Horror Story .
BUT a Funny thing happened on the way to Zero.
A Rip Roaring 300% Move in 9 months. Note the Bottom in Oct 2015…3 months before most PM Miners of all ilks Bottomed in January 2016…Barrick IS THE LEADER…like it or NOT !
This Giant of the Gold Mining Industry trades like a penny Stock !
So Who buys it …No one here on this board would touch it with a 10 foot pole.
Institutions that’s who.
So where are we Now ?
Well for one we are just starting into the strongest seasonal period BY FAR in the Miners…but that’s a secondary metric.
BUT what about the Chartology ?
We have all been analysing GDX and GDXJ and HUI and all the PM Indices..and many here are still seeing Bearish Patterns…expecting more downplay here.
Personally I look at the HUI and I see a very Ominous Looking H and S Pattern projecting a fall back to where we came from. Classic !
ABX is in all the Major PM Indices..its a large Component so one would expect it to look similar to this HUi Chart
But a closer Look under the Hood reveals a different story from the Leader of the pack.
Lets look at the Daily LOG chart to see what is transpiring in ABX.
Observations
1..After the 9 month epic 300% run ABX finally corrected for what seemed like a LONG time for the Standing Bulls
2..But really it has (so far) bottomed after just 2 months !
3…Bottomed where >?At exactly a 50% retrace …that’s where
4…Bottomed also at the TOP of the first impulse move into March which as it turned out was half way to the top
5…Bottomed with a false Breakout below its own Head and Shoulders neckline
6…Bottomed after a Gap down and now has held above a recent Gap UP ( Island Bottom)
7…Now has been in a stealth 5 week uptrend which has taken it thru the 2 month Downtrend
8…After loosing the 50 dma and the 200 dma it is now comfortably above both..without triggering the death cross.
9…note the 2 blacklines forming the triangle..The price dropped below the apex and then climbed back above it .Rambus calls this an around the Apex move…usually very bullish.
10….Now at some obvious resistance at $19
What could be next ?
Zoom In…. Maybe something like this…a small down move to create another Inverse H and S
Then UP to new Higher Highs
Now Zoom Back out to the weekly and what potential do we see ? an Inverse Head and Shoulders in the Making.
Pass the Popcorn
Great analysis! Terrific work FGC
I own Barrick, Anglogold-Ashanti, DRD Gold and Newcrest Mining for exactly the reasons you have identified.
They were on the floor!
I think Newcrest Mining is the leader but acknowledge the others have eventually got their act together.
As mentioned a few times before the Australian miners in late 2014 found themselves at an advantage to their competitors, high USD/low AUD, low oil prices & lower wages and contract rates (resulting from down-turn in commodities).
Since then NCM has not looked back, although it also suffered a 25% correction during this last intermediate cycle, providing me with another opportunity to buy another tranche at around AUD$21
Despite all the troubles that NCM had back in 2013 they have not raised additional capital, have taken tough management decisions, written back losses, curtailed exploration and other cost saving measures to give far better shareholder value.
Aside…One of the best things Barrick did was to sell some of their AUS assets cheaply, which were purchased by Northern Star Resources, the best gold miner in Australia. They remain well & truly secure in my portfolio.
Terrific analysis of Abx, Fullly. Telling us something for sure.
You keep getting better at this.
Very nice post Fully.
Really good work Fully, I enjoyed that one.
Been looking at that massive potential inverse h&s for ABX before it turned and made a right shoulder bottom. I think it is most valid.
This huge IHS makes the drop in 08 look like a hiccup. The move up should be something to behold.