$Silver – Elliott Wave Count
Is Silver about to embark on a impulsive rally that will likely take it beyond it’s July high of $21.23?
Gabe – the following wave count is offered for your consideration, along with other EWP practitioners. I appreciate your charts and highly respect your work. I’ve seen other similar wave counts as yours posted here, and expect you can correct me if I am way off.
My count differs from yours, wherein you propose that primary wave 1 (P1) has been completed, and now Silver is presently in the process of searching for a bottom to complete primary wave 2 (P2).
I’m contending that P1 has yet to be completed, and instead Silver is presently completing a 4th sub-wave within a larger scale 5-wave pattern, and is therefore about to breakout higher on it’s way to eventually completing P1.
For neophytes reading in, it’s important to understand that EWP provides “rules” for wave counting which cannot be broken, and “guidelines” that offer tendencies with exceptions. The rules for a wave 2 and wave 4 correction are quite different, and therefore will have important impact on future price projections.
For example, wave 2’s typically retrace 50-61.8% of wave 1, but can retrace all of wave 1 (guidelines), as long as it doesn’t move beyond the start of wave 1 (rule). In the case of Silver, that would potentially mean all the way down to $13.62!
Wave 4’s typically retrace 38.2-50% of preceding wave 3 (guideline) but cannot move beyond the end of wave 1 (rule).
Therefore, it’s important to know if you are in a wave 2 or wave 4, as the potential downside is much greater for wave 2, and more restrictive for wave 4.
With all of that said, here is my case for the following wave count. Gabe – your wave count is provided in red numerals for comparison purposes.
Nice post RTV.
Applying degrees can be tricky and I can be wrong.
I made another chart where I assume that first correction was an Expanded Flat and the second a Zig-Zag.
You will notice there is no overlap with the Expanded Flat between wave (2) and wave (4).
Also the reason I am assuming that P1 is finish is because Intermediate wave (1) to (5) have normally a duration of weeks to months
and that we now have 9 months in the tooth for this trend.
Also the blow-off top is typical of commodities like silver.
https://s22.postimg.org/v12xzyaj5/XAGUSD_092816.png
Gabe –
You’re right – sub-waves can be tricky! I think where you relabeled wave 1, is where i would label wave 3 of that sub-wave. not sure about the “expanded flat” correction, which would typically have at least 4 points of contact before resolving.
i don’t involve myself much with “time” within EW, except maybe from a fib standpoint and then only as a “guideline”, as there are no rules for time.
P2’s are supposed to shake loose the unwashed masses, the over-leveraged, the momo chasers, to test the resolve of even the most resolute bulls…so if we do breakout to new highs from here it would certainly be very unusual for a P2 not to retrace at least 38.2% of P1.
anyway – I think it’s safe to assume we will both be happy as sh!t if Silver explodes higher in the coming days and weeks! 🙂
the only caveat for me is the possibility of a muted sub-wave 5, at least as far as my count is concerned…sub-wave 3 appears extended to me, so via “alternation” wave 5 would still take out the July high, but possibly only marginally. Plus – there is always the possibility that the present sideways correction will morph into a trading range to extend the correction…
we’ll see! thanks for your response and good luck with your investing/trading!
Speaking of time – time is up for Silver from a fib standpoint!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p32288246387&a=474069399
RTV-
This is why I am using EW as a secondary tool because it is very difficult to make the right count from the start. It is very subjective and always
offer different alternative counts …
Benoit Mandelbrot has questioned whether Elliott waves can predict financial markets:
” But Wave prediction is a very uncertain business. It is an art to which the subjective judgement of the chartists matters more than the objective, replicable verdict of the numbers. The record of this, as of most technical analysis, is at best mixed. ” (Mandelbrot, Benoit and Richard L. Hudson (2004). The (mis)Behavior of Markets, New York: Basic Books, p. 245 )
Gabe –
I agree – labeling is always easier in hindsight, and yes – same here – it’s a secondary tool for me as well. But I have seen some amazing EW predictions come true – especially with longer term patterns – so I’m going to stick with it and hope you do the same because as I said – I like your charts! I had a question with your silver chart but everything else I’ve seen from you is sharp and clean – so keep it up! 🙂