Loading ...Rick on Bonds
T-Bonds’ nearly relentless weakness must be viewed in the context of a long-term chart to see that it is merely corrective rather than impulsive. Which is to say, it’s not a bear market that has been unfolding over the last few months, but rather a normal-looking retracement of a very powerful — and still-promising — bull market. In fact, the selloff has yet to retrace even half of the steep ascent that occurred between December 2013 and March 2015. That would imply more downside to around 147^01, just beneath the recent low. A 0.618 retracement would require 142^20 — quite a ways from here, although hardly inconceivable. I doubt that the violent upward spasm that accompanied Monday’s news concerning Greece has ended the correction. Accordingly, we might expect more downside to at least 144^25, the p2 Hidden Pivot support of a pattern visible in the daily chart, where A= 157^12 on May 29.