Goldtent TA Paradise

NOT SLOWING DOWN

1. Farmer says:

   April 15, 2025 - 11:45 pm at 11:45 pm

   It looks really great and it makes people like me look like fools since we have become bearish. But Gold is not really advancing. It is only in the process of building a blow off top before the declines begin. At one stage gold was gaining a 100 dollars per week. That is a warning to buyers to get cautious. Then it went to 100 dollars per day. That is a sign to exit the trade not buy more unless you are a daredevil! Just give it time as we must and you will see that gold will spend a few years in the dumps before getting itself energized to take off again. Its pure technicals.

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   • YYZ says:

     April 16, 2025 - 1:22 am at 1:22 am

     I rarely ever disagree with you, but a few questions Farmer regarding where we’re at in the cycle:

     1) will global central banks refrain from putting liquidity into their systems in response to tariffs?
     2) are gold/pm’s an investment like stocks (typical TA behavior – could possibly go to zero) or inverse alternatives to fiat expansion (see 1).
     3) is there more opportunity risk being on the sidelines for up to a ‘couple years’ – or – more risk of missing continuation of this PM bull (driven by sentiment) – how many ‘doubles’ happened in the 70’s or 2000’s? We’re only 2.5x the 2015 lows (TEN YEARS ago) nothing to get too excited about – late stage or early stage?
     4) GSR is over 100, if gold’s topped for the next several months to a couple years – where is the GSR going relative to it’s historical norm? again, in which direction is the wind blowing.
     5) on a scale of 1-10 what is the current degree of market uncertainty and where is it headed. Just for argument’s sake, suppose the ‘architects’ (DJT & co.) of current mkt. volatility suddenly get ‘offed’ by let’s say drones and the globalists regain momentum – will market uncertainty/anxiety diminish?
     6) Gold has only just recently broken out in relative performance against indexes including 60/40 portfolios amongst many other competing measures. Are you still looking for a retrace to the ‘scene of the crime’ as Garath Soloway likes to say, or perhaps gold underperformance (after getting hammered by those metrics for the past decade – esp miners)?
     7) is the non-PM herd (retail, institutional, hedge funds), gaining or losing awareness of what is happening in the PM/Miner space?
     8) is the early April crash then huge outperformance of the miners a false breakout or a trend – does it reflect more or less interest in the PM and mining space by the normies?

     BTW, I was mostly in cash from Gold 2,950 high to 3,200 high anticipating a ‘decent’ re-entry point (gold 2770 gap fill or GDX $38 gap fills were my pullback targets GDX/GLD ratio target .145 – .150, GSR 98-100). Just before the cliff dive (when most of those metrics hit), on 4/3 I went back in based on GDX reaction to the tariff announcements (46 down to 43 and back to 45 intraday) – 16 hrs away from an easy 15% gain. On 4/3 I wrote down a list (see above) of all the reasons I needed to swallow my pride and accept NOT participating in the PM rise and solid breakout above $3k. Writing notes when I make decisions helps me regain my (at-the-time) mental state which greatly reduces future market gyration anxiety. Make a plan, reason it out, stick with it.

     The key take-away from the huge rebound in gold Majors indicates a LOT more big mkt players – hedgies/institutions who are now looking at the true value of the miners, esp with Oil so cheap and margins expanding (even if gold is flat at today’s prices for the next few months). Farmer – take a note from Harry Dent who, when gold was in the 1200’s in 2016 was giving reasons for a retrace into 700 territory before rocketing higher (he’s nearly always been long term bullish PM’s). He doesn’t talk much about that now. Today, if Gold drops to say 2600-2800, will I regret my current position/thesis – not a chance.

     Truly wish you all the Best in Success Sir Farmer

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