CPM Group

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My editorial FWIW:

His opening statement says the movement of PM’s from London to the US is simply arbitrage – nothing to see here.

CONTEXT: this was put out when silver spiked to over $34 in the MORNING of 2/14 and did not consider the rest of the day where gold dropped most of the day and silver likewise fell to $32 and change.  My thought is this was put out in haste to dampen sentiment that silver was going to run (outpace) gold – again, just a hunch.

He then compares where we’re at now to the blow off peak in Q1 2011.

My take – he’s telegraphing what the metals (esp silver) managers are going to do, NOT what is actually happening.

Encouraging for anyone looking to buy on the DIP.

1) he IGNORES the LEASE RATE  spike (cost of borrowing metal) that similarly happened in during Covid in early 2020.

2) he IGNORES the fact that the GSR leading up to the blowoff plummeted to the low 30’s.  (it recently rose upward to 91).  Of course his premise has always been – silver is ONLY an industrial metal and any correlation to gold as money properties is mere coincidence.

3) he IGNORES talk of the current US administration monetizing the balance sheet with US sovereign assets.  He refers to ‘conspiracy theories’ at least 2 times.

Jeff’s presentation I believe is encouraging for the near term (within 4 week) pullback and mid-term (1-3 months) rise in the PM’s and perhaps moreso with the miners once a POR is understood.

Other helpful articles explaining what Jeff seems oblivious to.

Comparison and analysis of Gold lease rate spike today – ZH

and in possible impact on miners 2022 – Seeking Alpha << see implied gold lease rate chart going back to 2008.

At the end “take care of the people around you” – inadvertent? nod to James Anderson at SD Bullion.